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Mulder - you're comparing apples and oranges using SLP's past Gross Profit for FYE Jun 2018, which includes depreciation and a one-time acquisition cost of $6.3m (for funnily enough, PAF's Phoenix asset) and comparing this to your estimated Forward PE for PAF, which conversely does not include a number of costs which will reduce PE (substantial interest costs and Capex).

P/E should be based on EBTDA. I always strip out the "I" for Interest from EBITDA as it's a major direct cost to the balance sheet that impacts Earnings and "free cashflow".

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PAF
- I broadly agree with your £40m figure as long as they hit targets of 170,000 Oz next calendar year Jan - Dec 2019, however this £40m is calculated based on AISC.
- AISC does not include interest costs that will be substantial to PAF (7% on $117m debt is $8m) and nor does AISC include Capex. There is still a lot of Capex costs to incorporate Evander Tailings into Elikhulu by Dec-2018.
- So once all costs are considered, I would say the actual EBTDA is more like £32m, which at 7.8p sp, is a PE of 4.5.

- Additionally there are many risks. Net Debt could actually be higher than the last PAF estimate of $117m by Dec-2018, there are many 1-time costs and whilst Royal Sheba is very good news, to develop it requires more Capex.
- For next 2-3yrs to develop Royal Sheba and pay down debt, I don't see how they can pay a dividend. If they do in long-term it will not be correct course of action and very short-term thinking by the Board.
- PAF long-term prospects are good and 2019 should be their year for "turnaround", but until debt is under control and coupled with SA Mining Charter political risks, PE around 4.5 sounds about right for now. With PAFs huge reserves, long production life, 1st class asset Royal Sheba to add production in future, in long-term this PE should correct and be at least 8+, as long as Net Debt is low and political risks diminish.

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SLP
- Gross Profit last FYE ending Jun-18 was $17.5m, but this is after depreciation of $6m! SLP's actual EBTDA (they have no debt hence no interest) was $22.2m as per Accounts. Even this EBTDA is misleading for forecasting purposes as for that year it includes the one-time cost of acquiring Phoenix for $6.3m.
- SLP's forecast EBDTA for this FYE Jun-19 is $26m. However this was based by SLP on ZAR of 14 and Basket Price of $1,009, which has now trended upwards to $1,040. Based on today's market EBDTA is more like $30m now.
- SLP Forward PE is therefore 2.6.

- In addition as stated before SLP has cash of $14m and a huge trade balance in its favour of $20m owed to it by refiners. With this plus dividends on way, Life of Production of 12-15yrs, EBDTA rising with production in following years, it should be trading on a PE of at least 5.

I don't see how that is possible for Evander Underground operations making a profit?

If you look at PAF's consolidated gold production summary for 6 month ending 31 Dec 2017 (released with the Interim Accounts) and in the Evander Underground Operations column, the all-in cost was a whopping $1,575!

The tailings is separate and will be progressed as part of Elikulu, that is the only viable part. Even with change in ZAR, Evander underground operations are not viable at all. With retrenchment and pay-off of all the workers, even with a turn-around in gold price to say $1,400, Evander will still be marginal and too large a risk to restart. PAF are better to focus on other plays like Royal Sheba.

I recommended PAF to a number of friends who invested in low 7p so I'm glad it's doing well too. I also invested below 7p and sold on a near 10% rise, then rotated it back into SLP, some months back. However always have my eye on PAF as I do like it, but need to see next set of numbers. So full disclosure - don't currently hold any PAF, for now.

The unknown until numbers are released is how the significant increase in oil prices will impact costs & if they can really hit 100,000 Oz for Barberton. Elikhulu is also only at 55,000 until they incorporate Evander Tailings in later in year, for the 70,000 Oz total target. "AISC" is not "all-in costs" and so does not include what will now be significant interest payments on a debt of $117million come Dec-2018. At 7% interest for example, you're looking at $8million interest payments per annum. AISC also does not include Capex either.

So I would think Mulder's P/E of 4 is about right, perhaps more veering towards 5 if targets met. Whereas SLP although I said forward P/E of "2", has slightly higher Capex this year than last, so I would say is more around 2.5 - 3.

P.s. Based on current forex in PAF's favour and if they can get back up to 100,000 p.a. I've probably been bit harsh on Barberton breaking even. The last all-in cost we got was $1,221, however this was when ZAR was at 12ish and production 40k for 6 months period.

They could potentially get this down to $900 per Oz region if production is back up to 50K per 6 months (100k p.a.) and ZAR is now 14+, taking into account wage increases etc.

However therefore with potential earnings of $65million ($30m from Barberton, $35m from Elikhulu) for the entire operation, the P/E is still not nearly as good as SLP and the substantial debt needs to be addressed.

It's simply not the case that SLP has a higher P/E or worse fundamentals than PAF, it's the exact opposite.

Of PAF's potential 170,000 Oz p.a., the 100k at Barberton is only breaking even at $1,200. So you're left with only 70K Oz where a good margin will be realised from Elikhulu. PAF's net debt has spiralled and reaches its peak in Dec 2018 at $117million on a Forex of ZAR 14.5! This is as per their own presentation after the 2017 results (slide 14 of 47). Who knows when they can pay a dividend again with that level of net debt.

SLP has cash in the bank of over $14m, a trade balance of $20m in its favour, P/E of 2, announced dividend to be approved on 23 Nov, producing 76-78k Oz PGMs this year at margin of $500 (thanks to high Rhodium and Palladium prices), the exact same margin as PAF's for its 70K at Elikhulu.

Despite all this I do like PAF, but it's absurd to say its fundamentals are better than SLP.

Accept the statement: "Stakeholders now have the opportunity to appeal this amendment. Any appeal will result in the suspension of the LEDET’s authorisation"

Do we know who are classed as stakeholders and therefore which entities can appeal? Is MCM not going to be stuck in the usual legal merry-go-round of protracted appeals? That would be an additional headache to the ongoing land access issues.

I also wasn't sure the reference to "Makhado Lite" in the article. Why is it described as "Lite" and does this mean it is different, smaller project from Peel Hunt's est. EBITDA for project of $80m you quoted Boz? Don't suppose you have a link to this to see what assumptions PH made, particularly on coal price, quantities, capex, forex etc.

This glosses other key facts so really not sure how extensive your research has been unless you've been extremely selective:

1) The Department of Justice was a major player in pushing through Bunker Hill and resolving the decades long stand-off. Is it incorrect to insinuate this was Scott Pruitt acting on his own in his capacity as part of the EPA and outside the law.

https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-department-justice-reach-agreement-two-idaho-mining-companies-secure-wastewater

You offer absolutely nothing specific to the Bunker Hill case to back-up your assertion it's on shakey legal ground. Normally there is smoke before fire: news articles and protests etc. against such a ruling/ signed Agreement. I can't find any in the local or mainstream news. Is there any major movement against the reopening? In fact I can only find positive articles in the local press regarding employment.

2) Bunker Hill has been given an indemnification from US Government for prior contamination migrating from the mine. Regarding any future mining, it is the same as any other mine. They require to be a responsible operator and with technology progressing leaps and bounds in the last 4 decades, they have no issues that other miners do not face. Indeed it will be hard to prove from a defendant it is from new mining and it is incorrect to compare this to any case which is not the same legal scenario. It's apples and oranges to compare it to Monsanto's Round-up cancer case. The law would be in BH's favour regarding burden of proof and for defendant to prove beyond a reasonable doubt it was due to new mining.

http://www.bunkerhillmining.com/news/index.php?content_id=63

Also speaking as a "fairly substantial" shareholder, I'd be happier with HUM continuing without major changes in the BOD nor a cheap TO, considering they're the only such BOD to achieve a mine on time, under budget and with no commissioning/ ramp up issues.

Sword of Damocles?! Ffs I see the melodrama still runs riot.

Dubge is a political and financial quagmire for an entity the size of HUM. It's Capex is nearly quadruple that of BH and returns not great either, requiring far higher gold price. BH on the other hand, is a viable and good size 2nd outing, in parallel to executing the Yanfolila extensions and Cora asset incorporations.

Rather ironic comment to make TBTT when you've wanted the HUM management who delivered such stellar performance to be lynched and run out of town for minor issues, when no other miner I know of has ever achieved this for their 1st mine (on time, below budget and no commissioning issues/ ramp up to "steady state" in record time) .

Time and time again the likes of FJS and Darola have eloquently stated what an achievement it was and most LTHs know this, yet for the last few months we've had ridiculous melodrama on this board from others.

Let's hope we can now have some normality.

CFlather - I see it as a bit of a pullback/ breather after a great run-up the last few weeks. Some of the factors you state may be the reason some have sold, but ultimately for SLP the story is unchanged.

Rhodium has now hit $2,400 so the USD basket price is still in the $1,030 region. However with the ZAR now at 15.5 to the USD, this reduces cash costs to $442 per Oz (going by the ZAR 6,849 in last week's presentation). So the margin is at $588 per Oz! Some SA inflation may eat into that and increase cash costs in ZAR terms, but it's still a huge margin.

Long-term this is the perfect storm for SLP. They still have a very healthy basket price and margin due to Rhodium and Palladium, however Platinum at these rock bottom prices must be hurting all other miners, even with a weakened ZAR helping cash costs. As a rule of thumb I believe for the underground platinum mining, their breakeven is closer to $1,000. How long can the marginal big platinum miners carry on like this? And will it put the brakes on some of the mega platinum projects that were due to start in the early 2020s? Possibly. There may need to be a few major events on supply-side (collapse of Sibanye-Lonmin merger, bankruptcies etc.) before we see a strong sustainable recovery in Plat.

As positive as I am long-term on SHG, a dividend is not happening for the foreseeable future. There remains a large amount of debt to pay off this year and next, which is the priority.

The only way SHG could pay a dividend is if it received the VAT rebate due to it of $18million as cash in the bank, but that is unlikely. It will likely be through offsets against corporation tax as Acacia and others have been doing. However would be nice to get a portion as cash in the bank like we did back in Nov 2017, for a bit more breathing room.

Yep maiden dividend which equates to 1.75% to be voted at AGM on 23 November and a long statement on dividends in the Accounts.

On other good news, forward guidance for this year Jun 18 - Jun 19 is 76,000 - 78,000. Thereafter it looks like on the presentation on slide 15, production will be over 80,000.

SLP has always been a solid company, but sentiment appears particularly buoyant at moment and they have had good exposure from continued Investor Chronicle articles. The weakening SA Rand has of course helped with operating costs too. If a dividend policy/ dividend is announced as part of the Accounts next week 28 Aug, this sentiment will continue and could see it creep up to 25p quite quickly on the back of it. However if there is still silence, could see it retrace back and impact this positive sentiment that has built up. Like many here I also believe SLP is significantly undervalued, however it will continue to be unless a dividend is announced.

Ariana's mine was delayed and it did not commence production until late March 2017, when it was supposed to start production in 2016. Not sure how that is ahead of plan, but it is not correct to state Ariana have achieved the same as HUM. They have not by a country mile. It would be disingenuous to blame the delay on weather conditions as the board did, as the delays pushed them into the adverse Dec & Jan winter conditions in the 1st place.

I have no idea either if AAU met the $31m Capex in their DFS either, considering the amount of placings diluting shareholders to obvilion, I would expect not.

Additionally the cost quoted of $400 is meaningless in terms of comparisons with others miners as they do not follow the standard model of cash costs and AISC metrics. Any mine can develop these metrics and having a JV set-up or saying your in "ramp up" for over a year is no excuse. When you add that to the fact they do not report Cash or Debt positions on quarterly basis and therefore it's impossible to understand the true up-to-date free cashflow, it's not one for me and no comparison to HUM. No transparency whatsoever until you get the delay Accounts or Interim Accounts and by then for the PI it is already too late.

AAU performed well this year so far and sure Interim Accounts later this month will show an improved situation, but the 2017 Accounts were pretty dire. AAU had only $773K cash at end of year, despite being in production since March 18. The 50:50 Red Rabbit JV which has its separate Balance sheet is not much better. Had debts of $22.6m, a trade payables of $2.5m due, yet only $500k cash left.

I note in the share buyback RNS that there are currently 4,879,549 shares held in Treasury.

Of these, 2,307,888 are the buyback of the Australian Investors shares and will be cancelled, which is of course good and increases everybody's equity %.

Does anyone remember where the other 2million are from? I assume they may be for options or could they also possibly be cancelled?

26p

"Strip out net cash from Sylvania’s market capitalisation of £49.4m and an operation that has just posted annual net profits of £8m at current exchange rates is effectively being valued on five times historic post tax profits. That’s a harsh rating and one that offers scope for a re-rating to my 26p target price. Needless to say, the rationale for including Sylvania in my Bargain Shares Pportfolio is firmly intact. Buy."

Sure is volatile out there! Pd up 6% and Plat up 3.3%, with basket back over $1,000!

And in ZAR terms, ZAR still weak at 14.5 which is very good for SLP operating costs, albeit cash in the bank in USD terms may get minor hit.

Melodramatic to the extreme. I agree on the 1p options, a disgrace, but that's about it. So completely agree with Tom on all points.

HUM are the only company I know to bring in their 1st mine both on schedule and under budget. Some other companies manage one, but not both. Most AIM companies fail at both.

As much as I'm an uber bull on SLP it does seem bizarre it's levitating up like this when PGMs are crashing! It surely can't be just on the back of the IC article?

Could there be something behind the scenes those in the know have found out before us lowly PIs. Seems bit soon but perhaps a leak that the Accounts on 28 August will include statement on dividend policy or even dividend? Or an II increasing their position more for long-term looking past PGM weakness.

I would normally be tempted to sell a portion like I did last time when it shot up to 18p and I bought them back and more at 16p, low 17p. However this time round not to keen to short-term trade and miss any "new" news that may come.

Ragnar - I should be grateful my SLP portion has done exceedingly well, but it's merely making up for a horrible month in my gold miners that are getting hammered!

Edit: meant WTO not World Bank