The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
I hope you did not invest in EQT, since it will take a looooong way to recover if you did it 6 months ago, so long that it may never happen. Last month: -8,5%, last 6 months: -39% last 12 months: -77,3%, last 24 months: embarrassing, better not posting.
As I said, you can tell whatever you want to me, it is just a ad hominem argument, but the grim reality is that JVL cannot count therefore cannot make a realistic budget, DP is just squeezing as much money as he can and YA is a poor guy who thinks he knows gasification better than any other on this planet whereas any low grade south african engineer knows more than him and is able to gasify things better than him.
Summarizing: Their cash flows out of them (EQT Company and investors) like diarrhoea from the buffalo" (quote), their tech is not good as they claim, there are better options when you have the same feedstock input as for EQT tech and "wow Italy project" even if start today to produce 100% electricity will never repay the investment so far.
For the French case: well, the usual crap financed by the poor french taxpayers, following a line that the swedish plenty of tech and with the best tech available demonstrated is not profitable at all (see my previous posts on the wood to biomethane disaster in Sweden).
Call me anyway "Här whatever", but in my posts I put analysis and numbers and the reality is grim for EQT investors and getting worst day by day
The problem is that JVL is not able to count therefore he is unfit for its role in EQT. Italy when will start will never be able to repay the retrofitting CAPEX and the OPEX, therefore will never generate profits. If you are waiting for Italy for the shares to go up for sometime you may get a rebound in the share price, though limited in time, the company is just burning cash with no clear sign pf getting profitable in the next years. Until there was a lot of cheap money available this could have be a strategy, but with the current squeeze in borrowing and higher interest rate this is coming more and more difficult.
EQT is like a terminally ill man, with a lot of injections and treatment you can prolong a bit his life, but what about life quality?
In addition, the largest and commercial project for wood biomas to biomethane (what EQT want to do in France, what everybody hope is the future of EQT) has been closed and the facility scrapped to recover at least the steel. And do you think EQT can do better? ;)
https://www.svebio.se/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Henrik_Thunman_workshop_25November_2021.pdf
Any material containing carbon atoms can be gasified (although everyone has different pros & cons). Syngas* is a useful intermediate to make different things, from energy to methanol to chemicals etc, it can even be used by bacteria as substrate to grow. The difficulties come when you have to make money with it. The Qatar airplanes for example use kerosene made from natural gas via syngas.
The issue with EQT is that either they are very luck and find a market niche or it will be very difficult, since when you have the raw material (chicken litter, wood pellets, olive pomace, used tyres etc etc) you have to select a technology, and their tech is not among your first option. As a matter of example, have you followed the recent boom in biomethane facilities in Spain? Though EQT claim that is Spain they have their best case so far (Movialsa) can you tell me why traditional biogas is booming and not EQT tech? Try to guess (I will narrow down for you, EQT tech is too cumbersome and expensive compared to the alternatives).
In a nutshell: EQT is in a crisis not because it is running out of cash, that is the consequence of the fact that its value proposition in terms of tech is not what the market need in high numbers
*funny enough, the waste left from coal gasificatioon to produce town gas was worked by chemists and was the starting point for industrial chemistry, with phenol ("phenic acid") developed as first product, an antiseptic
In my opinion the company is doomed or at least will not deliver profits for a lot of time ahead. The tech itself is nothing special, plenty of gasification plants and provider but very few gasification plants up and running: because it is too cumbersome and complicate compared to other alternatives. The masters of gasification are the south africans, but just because with the embargo in the apartheid they were obliged to use coal as source of syngas to produce things out of syngas.
In my opinion (as tech expert that did a thoroughly assessment of their tech to decide to invest or not) it is not worth to invest, and I decided so when stocks were 5 times higher than its value of today
I am not xenophobic, I love other cultures: when I travel to India for example I understand Churchill and british point of view about indians
I do not know how do you count in that island that is an inbreeding jail. You use measurements nobody understand, drive on the wrong side, live 1 hour earlier and ultimately your girls blow instead of suck: everything is wrong over there...
Anyway, I mean when every stock was worth 5 times more than it is worth today, so I am happy since I would have lost 80% of my investment and in the end I invested in another stock that did + 110% so far, so I am happy.
Are you sure you are not Paul Gregory AKA Tango man?
JVL is just trying to harness as much as he can and then to retire in his "buen retiro". Do you know where he bought his villa?
The situation is easy: the company is doomed, in Italy they have lost already so much revenues from the 280 €/MWh feed in tariff that they will never recover the investment, and biochar is a fantasy: have a look at the volumes sold so far: everybody speaks about it but nobody uses it in Italy or southern EU, where they can market it.
I really see people here keep on listening the same Guns n roses album "use your illusion", but it will turn from illusion to delusion
I was thinking to invest (AKA buy a lot of shares) when the company was at 1 £ per share, that I thought was the minimum, it was early 2022
As I said, Italy not yet working properly, but even if it would work it will never be able to generate enough profits to repay the revamping. The issue is that for a startup company it is normal to do not have plants that generate profits in the short run, but EQT is not a startup company anymore, it is just playing around its startup status.
Outlook for me very negative, plain and simple
Italian and spanish are mutually intelligible as long they both speak very very slow, even more intelligible than german & dutch. But if they speak with strong dialect pronunciation it is very difficult. I have the impression in Tuscany they speak dialect that is why is so difficult to understand them with my basic spanish
It is not important the language, it is important the message: not working, very little production to show investors things are moving, if they are lucky from 5th of June in operation, more likely from 12th June
The site is not working on regular basis, I am on the phone with one informed person right now. He confirmed me maybe if they are really lucky on the 5th June they will start it again
A couple of weeks ago the status was "well, we will change that specific valve in the gas circuit and the problem will be solved". I do not know if today it is working yet. Anyway, the clock is ticking and the generous 280€ MWh will expire, the more they wait the less money they will cash in, as simple as that.
Oh, stock price back at 0,20, the market tell us it has already reabsorbed the "positive" news of the last report.
If I would be in the BoD I would step down since I was not able to deliver, but it is just me....
I have a basic command of spanish that usually is sufficient to order few things at the restaurant in Italy, but the people there speak dialect, they cannot speak italian, difficult to interview them properly
I have been in Gallina and checked the site prior and ruding the retrofit, without infiornming EQT
When was the last time EQT share was around 1 pound? Not too much ago...
Unluckyly I do not speak Italian so I cannot interview the local people, but so far what I was able to peek inside the stuff there has been a flaw in the design of the retrofit that is not so easy to fix. In addition the personnel is leaving and many other small things coming together (fire protection permissions etc)
"at the moment"? How long is this moment?
I put that example just to state clearly that EQT does not have a particular tech advantage over other tech suppliers, despite what "el gordo cubano" tells (that he is the supergenius of gasification" and despite the David pathetic statements "EQT has a library of feedstock that have been proved viable" etc etc.
If you believe, keep on investing, put yopur money where your mouth is. Me, I did my due diligence when the share price was above 1 pound and I realized it was not a profitable investment and I am happy I did not invest