Member Info for vimconfused

Interesting to see comments about undervaluing the reserves. Just wanted to add something for the benefit of the new holders. You may think GKP has large reserves and indeed it does. However did you know that GKP once had four licences rather than one? The other three were Akri-Bijeel, Sheikh Adi and Ber Bahr. I remember attending an investor presentation many many years ago, when Todd was still in charge in which it was pointed out that one of these three fields (sorry can't remember which one) might well be bigger than Shaikan. But of course things that seem too good to be true often are, and since then our shares were destroyed by 99% and the licences were handed back. It's not like I'm bitter and twisted you understand. I'm very bitter and twisted. Probably why I shouldn't post very often!

I've been stupid enough to be in this share since January 2008. I paid the princely average of 34.7p per share. Aha, some of you newbies might think, you've actually got a near five-bagger there! But alas as most of you know, in company with the long term holders, I've had the benefit of a share destruction (sorry, I mean restructure) in which my original shares lost 99% of their value. So instead it's become a massive loss. Anyway, the main point of posting now is to sigh. Sigh because I have genuinely lost count of how many times we have come to today's "cause of optimism" where news that could be positive, never turns out to be so. Of course I hope I am wrong. I want to be wrong! But this share, and let's say, the "context" of the investment has *never failed to disappoint*. I spent some time learning all the fundamentals here. Know the fundamentals, do your own research, right? Well I did. That's why I invested here at all. And can I say that fundamentals mean f-all when you're dealing with people who put their own agendas, corruption and general bl-dy mindedness ahead of the logic of the resources they have. After all, the people doing the "negotiations", the people keeping the pipeline shut, the people who think they will lose face if they actually agree anything aren't financially suffering personally as a result. So will anything be agreed. Ever? Perhaps. But if there is progress, for me it will be a surprise. I'm that cynical. But is it cynical to reflect what has happened so many times (or failed to happen). As I said, hope I'm wrong.

Never found out what the point of these waste of oxygen shorters are. To make money from a falling price? To sell shares they don't actually have? Is this what the market was supposed to be? How does that benefit anyone in the long run? Doesn't it just take money out the market? If I could I would use really bad words to describe them. Frankly I find their idea of employment disgusting. Someone once explained the point (and benefit to the markets) of shorting to me and as you might assume, I didn't get it.

Hence my amusement when us shareholders who have been around a while are described as [whatever] by people for wrongly following TK et al into this share to our detriment as if the 100:1 destruction could have been foretold by the "fundamentals". So yesterday we get a good update, which (and I don't want to overstate this or get it wrong) suggested stronger fundamentals perhaps? Today all the gains based on the good update are gone and we are even lower than before the announcement. So what's the [fundamentals based] reason for that then? Answer is that there's always an answer ("this just tracks the oil price" or something like that), but it's never the real answer.

damofari you said "(punters/traders/speculators if you like) do like to believe they have found the next big thing oiler wise, and happily sucker themselves into what they want to believe rather than what the fundamentals are saying."

Well that's interesting because back when I first invested I was very interested in the fundamentals. I "did my own research" as they say (given up now, it's pointless). Why is it pointless? Because "the fundamentals" said this is a utterly gigantic amount of oil [over four blocks at the time let's not forget] and oil is worth a lot. Of course it was much more complicated than that, but that's the gist of it. So tell me how "the fundamentals" tell you who is corrupt, who has the insider knowledge, how much various parties are skimming off the deals and exactly when the oil and gas law will be passed? And does it tell you how the market makers are going to move the price around for reasons bugger all to do with the fundamentals and all to do with reasons that you really won't be able to *do your own research* on?

Because it turns out that all those impossible to calculate factors OTHER THAN the fundamentals turn out to be far more important here! But thank you for implying that the people who originally invested are suckers. Fan of Mr Putup are you?

PUTUP: "And, no, I wasn't dumb enough to own this company prior to its bankruptcy, oops restructuring, in 2016."

Well you've certainly convinced me. Your crystal ball told you something that thousands of others couldn't know at the time. Did you post on any websites during the TK days setting out your reasons *at the time*? Basically, what was it that you knew that others didn't? And thank you for labeling all us original investors as dumb. I have a word for you but I am not going to type it here.

I think they've dispensed with the bother of moving the price up in line with the dividend announcement, and skipped straight to the post-dividend price reduction step.

Either that or gone with the "you can do as much research as you want but you can't possibly anticipate every reason we can think of to lower the SP". Apparently there was an earthquake "in the region", production hasn't been affected, but, well, there was an earthquake. (Shaikan is more than 600km from the epicentre.)

Change to payment on four month terms? Sounds good to me, means we will get paid sooner than usual doesn't it?

I've said it before but it continues to be the case, if you want to see negatives you can always find them. In other words for example mark it down for not getting to a number of barrels per day, but ignore the vast amount of barrels that are being produced. Ignore the huge dividends relative to price etc. There will always be those who say the price is as it is "because". But you could probably use exactly the same arguments if the price was already a quid more. I tried DYOR on this but have now given up. None of it really makes sense, so try not to worry about it any more. Will never invest in the stock market ever again though.

This is great. If this keeps sliding then in a couple of months the dividend payout will be higher than the share price. Yeah, yeah, what do I know, I'm just a private investor, best leave it all to the professionals. What a load of bunts.

25% of your portfolio?

Amateur. You know nothing until you are brave/stupid* enough to have GKP as 100% of your portfolio.

*delete as appropriate

'are' no corporate moves ...(grammar )

I think there is an extra space between the end of "grammar" and the close bracket. Also you didn't finish the sentence with a full stop. Also not sure about the use of "..." in this case. I am however sure that I'm getting more annoying as I get older.

Perhaps one day a posting about the mythical oil and gas law will prove correct. Until then I must say I've lost count of how many times this has been suggested as possible. It's no joke, I really have. In fact I was about to make a sarcastic post about it being a few weeks since someone has posted about the oil and gas law. And believe me I would love to be wrong about this happening, but all we know is that it's been *years* since it was first discussed.

Should be a third category of 'lost the will to live with this one' (or similar title)

I'll take your word for it, frankly at the time I was in denial trying to pretend that it hadn't happened. I thought that TK wasn't responsible for the 1/100 dilution as he had gone by then.

As far as I remember TK was nothing to do with the horrendous revaluation that destroyed the holdings of the initial shareholders, nor am I completely certain of why it was the only way forward at the time. Hopefully the full story will emerge one day, but TKs role seems to have been "re-evaluated" in recent times, but he was not in control when it happened.

And as the SP falls, the dividend payout as a percentage increases, making the whole valuation thing that bit more ridiculous. But as a long term holder there is nothing other than ridiculous about this whole thing. People have often said things like "do your own research", and back in the day I did. But it's smoke and mirrors isn't it. Basically if the powers that be want to devalue a share they'll find a way to do it. I say, "look at these fundamentals, this means the share should be worth much more and will rise to that level over time", they say "aha, but you didnt' think of X" where X is any excuse they want for marking it down, because X can never be eliminated as a factor in *any* share, if that's what you're really looking for. The cynic in me is always thinking though (from painful experience years back) that the markets are saying to us little investors that we shouldn't get involved in the professionals business. While simultaneously inventing some kind of new way of packaging debts that nobody understands, will be rated AAA as a secure investment and calculated not to fail more than once in the history of the universe, then fails in a couple of years time and almost wrecks the economy of the western world. Again.

Dear mMax1

Do you have to go on a special course to become so obnoxious or does it simply come naturally to you? A lot of people lost a lot of money (presumably because they didn't have your crystal ball). But it's a lesson. In the future I will only buy shares in companies that are guaranteed to succeed.

Good luck to the long term holders!

When mentioning the size of Shaikan I cannot help but be reminded of an investor presentation I attended years back, back when GKP had four blocks, and before the destruction of the original share base (and I am understating what happened by using the term "destruction"). Please excuse my memory, but one of the board members (can't remember who) said that Shaikan was a great discovery, but they were actually *more excited* by one of the other blocks, thinking it was even larger. I think it was Sheikh Adi (the other two were Akri-Bijeel and Ber Bahr so it could have been one of them). Main point however is that wherever GKP is going, that other block could have made it even bigger, so it is "a shame" that GKP doesn't have them any more. Best regards to the long term holders, we have been through a lot!

Nothing new. Sensationalist language. How can "all hopes" be dashed if there is a good argument that the supreme court of Iraq (or whatever its called) is not even constitutional?