Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Bought back all the shares I sold at 61.90 last week.
The only unknown for me at the moment is the Russian-Ukrainian tension. All else is positive for Card Factory. As Rox said:
Christmas: TICK
VALENTINES: TICK
Easter, Mother's Day, Father's Day, all the birthdays and parties next ...
It certainly is extremely cheap now by any means.
The only explanation I have as to why the SP keeps going down is that some Travis Perkins shareholders, who were given a WIX share for each TP share they had when the two companies demerged, didn't want or appreciate them. This has been going on for months now, so surely the end of this trend must be near.
I also believe some investors are quietly picking these shares up, prior to the final results in March. The sales are up from both 2019 and 2020 and the profit is expected to be no less than £83m. So, there is a huge discount here.
Just personal opinions of course. So, good luck.
And any remaining restrictions are set to be scrapped sooner than planned in England.
CF shops are heaving with customers ... Valentine's Day, Mother's Day, Easter and all the birthdays and other parties we missed last year ...
Onwards and upwards
The bigger players will naturally have access to certain data. For example, they can probably work out how many shares they need to sell or buy to move the price up or down a few pence ( but any access to insider info is anyone's guess ).
So, what Citadel is doing here is similar to what some of us are doing and understandable - sell in 60s and buy back in mid or high 50s, in my opinion. This might work for a while, but the price will eventually shoot up at some point. Make sure you still have your shares when that happens.
( I still think Lombard's was a gamble, though, which didn't play as they hoped )
GLA
"Compared to the current share price of UK£1.8, the company appears quite good value at a 40% discount to where the stock price trades currently."
Full article here : https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/media/aim-tbld/tinybuild-shares/news/tinybuild-inc-lontbld-shares-could-be-40-below-their-intrins
Questor:
One billion pounds is a nice round number and it happens to be the market value that one investor expects Wickes, the DIY chain, to reach before long. It is currently worth just £566m. Why does he think the market perceives just half of its true worth?
The answer could hardly be any more mundane. Wickes demerged from its former owner, Travis Perkins, only six months ago and a lot of investors and analysts haven’t had enough time to get to know the stock. And, whereas Travis is worth £3.5bn, the standalone Wickes is small enough to escape some investment professionals’ attention altogether.
This gives any investor prepared to take a closer look the chance to bag a bargain. One such fund manager is Simon Murphy of Tyndall Investment Management. “Wickes is a really well run business not fully understood by the market,” he says.
Retailers of all shapes and sizes are grappling with the problem of keeping their bricks-and-mortar stores profitable while they meet the demands of online shoppers, but “the economics of Wickes’ stores are highly favourable”, according to Murphy.
“Competitors such as B&Q have huge sheds – and all that space has to be filled, because customers would find empty warehouses off-putting,” he says. “Wickes offers about 25,000 products online but only 9,000 in its stores, whereas B&Q warehouses have about 40,000 – all that stock ties up a huge amount of money.”
Another advantage of smaller stores is that they are cheaper to refurbish. “Wickes has now refurbished 143 of its 232 stores – it has made them bright, fresh and relevant,” Murphy says. “It says the rise in sales from refurbished stores is 10pc in core DIY but an astonishing 60pc in ‘DIFM’.” “Do-it-for-me” is hiring a professional for bigger jobs such as installing new kitchens and bathrooms.
“A lot of investors don’t appreciate that Wickes also does kitchens and bathrooms and has been building this part of the business for the past 10 years, making it a more prominent part of its stores,” the fund manager adds. “Wickes has been making a return of 25pc or more from the money spent on refurbishments and at the current rate of about 20 refurbishments a year it should have upgraded its entire estate in four years or so.”
He says the “big picture trends” for DIY “look favourable”.
“The housing market is buoyant and there’s a desire to keep improving our properties thanks to working from home. In the past the ‘repair and maintenance’ market has normally grown by 2pc-3pc a year but perhaps we’ll get 4pc-5pc for a few years. Wickes has tended to outperform, so all in all we could get 7pc-9pc top line growth across the group.
“Its third-quarter figures last week confirmed guidance for the year, despite concerns about cost inflation and supply chain problems.”
The full article : https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/questor-560m-stock-really-worth-billion-city-wakes-prospects/
FY21 :
Stores were closed for 16 weeks, including some of the busiest 4 weeks in Nov-Dec 2020.
Revenue: 285m / Profit: (13)m
FY22:
Stores were closed for 14 weeks between Jan and Apr, but remained open for the rest of the year, including the busiest Christmas period. Reduced transactions, but increased basket size. Increased online sales. Increased retail partnership.
Based on these, the half-year report and historic figures, I expect a revenue around £340m, hopefully with substantially reduced net debt. And hopefully, they will be back in profit again, although not a lot.
Fingers crossed.
Here is an article about the hedge fund managers betting against some companies, including British Airways, recently and losing millions. So, they don't always get it right!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/05/hedge-fund-king-ken-griffin-loses-millions-british-airways-bet/
I thought I would back you up with the retail figures announced this morning:
"Retail sales grew 1.4pc in November as consumers looked to wrap up their Christmas shopping early amid fears about product shortages and the omicron variant. The growth was well ahead of the 0.8pc forecast and puts sales 7.2pc higher than their pre-Covid levels in February 2020, according to the Office for National Statistics."
Card Factory is definitely one of the biggest beneficiaries of this increase in retail sales.
Everyday I think surely the CF shops in Scotland can't get any busier than this, and everyday they do!
Like most of the investors here, I feel 100% confident the results in January will be great, no matter what the current manipulation on the SP is! BUY while you can at these prices, if you haven't already done so.
Completely agree, Billy.
In 2 of the shopping centres near me, there are still 2 Clinton shops very close to the Card Factory shops. And the difference is huge. Whereas CC had 1 staff member in each shop with only a few customers, Card Factory had 3 members at the tilss in each shop with big queues.
Card Factory outlets all around Scotland are absolutely packed with customers ( all with masks ) and they're getting even busier as Christmas approaches. Definitely more staff at the tills ( seem to have doubled in numbers in the last few weeks ). Also, shelves are well replenished. No shop closures expected anymore ( fingers crossed ). Next trade update should be massive.
Revenue: USD 37.6 million, a 35% increase on USD 28.0 million the year prior
Pre-tax profit: USD 7.7 million ( up from -USD 2.6 million the year before )
Net cash: USD 26.3 million ( up from USD 17 million )
Whichever you look at these results, the company is a WINNER.