Blencowe Resources: Aspiring to become one of the largest graphite producers in the world. Watch the video here.
Carnage is US oil market today. I predict a 20% drop still to come, unfortunately. Wish I'd sold everything in September. Definitely a time to be buying all you can. I'm already knew deep though, will have to postpone retirement another year!
HBR has been a third of portfolio for nearly 2 years. I've finally seperated myself of half my holding. Not filing for divorce yet...hoping to make reparations in about 6 months. Coiled spring this is not, BoD not the issue, its just my US stock makes a mockery of these returns. Oils services seems to be a better place atm.
The share price isn't a reflection of the spot prices, but of future projections. Large IIs will need proven performance to make their investment cases. This will happen with steady commodity prices and booked results. Good fundamentals and patience will pay off. We are only 2 years into the 10yr bull cycle.
I'm not wishing, structural issues with all commodities are in play and a high POO is going to happen. Same with copper and food. I'm just stating why I believe the price is falling despite a tightening of supply. If nordstream went offline a year ago the poo would have rocketed. My opinion is that the measures governments can take are temporary and nothing can be done to stop the bull as additional infrastructure is years away. Grain prices are high too due to droughts and the decision to increase ethanol percentages in petrol. Some people on this board have sold as they can't understand the oil markets fall. I'm just sharing the idea that if demand can't be quelled until supply can be increased, prices will rise. Many oil stocks are up 20x from when COVID started. All the survivors are better run and lower in debt. I'm 100% in on o&g and the US stocks have massively outperformed my UK ones, but at some point the correction in line with fundamentals will happen.
World media propagating recessions to get inflation under control and introducing windfall taxes to shield the poor form rising energy prices. This is reducing demand and hence lowering the oil price. Additionally, the US is maintaining lower gasoline prices by adding 1 million boe a day to the market. That is why the oil price is falling despite limited supply. On the other side you have Saudi cuts coming, no Iran deal, China coming out of lockdown, nordstream defunct and limited LNG infrastructure. Taxation is required by governments to pay for those in fuel poverty but also stops o&g firms from investing to increase supply. The US SPR barrels stop mid October. Imho, hold until at least January. I'm here for $140 oil and a 100% rise from the current share price, it could do more for those that hold.
I have several stocks that have lost over 40%, some even over 50 in the last 3 weeks. I don't know why though. I suppose the price drop reflects future predictions being worse than current fundamentals. Gas is high, oil is high, debt is low, infrastructure improvements to loosen the market are years away. Nothing makes sense anymore. It's like WW3 or another global lockdown is expected...
Imagine your infrastructure is aging but prints cash. That all bigger players are diversifying away from oil.That you can print enough cash to justify an investment company buying the assets and riding them until they drop with limited future exploration. What is the risk of a hostile takeover due to a low SP? Maybe it's small if nobody can afford to buy except those who aren't interested. Do HBR need a high SP?
'Shocks to one part of the system are now creating ripple effects elsewhere. Reduced coal output in China hit aluminium smelting capacity, creating shortages in aluminium. Reduced gas availability forced gas-to-oil substitution, generating shortages in oil. The rolling impact of smaller, frequent shocks on a stretched system generates the emergent phenomenon in which transitory shocks lead to persistent physical price inflation'
Goldman Sachs called the oil prices a year ago...stocks are multipes below 2018 highs and the spot price has just broken 2018 highs.
There has to be a market wide correction, right?
Surely it won't double or even treble? The fact some holders are multiples down means people paid once, why not again?
HBR may not be the best stock...but a rising tide lifts all boats. Have any members of the BoD bought stock...yes is the answer. If you're so discontent with HBR, then why are you here? Hoping to cut losses? I'm lucky and got at 11.8p, but still believe better is ahead. I'm not for ramping HBR, but I tried to convey the structural bull reasoning for oil as a whole, not just HBR. I can't see a significant fall from here, bit there is plenty of blue sky to 2018 highs. As ever, time will tell!
Impending winter after a global pandemic, leading to an energy supply crunch. This all off the back of the shale price war that lead to negative oil. Some of my US oil stocks are up 500% over the last 18 months. 96% of my portfolio is oil. If oil stocks don't fly, with circa $100 oil expected and better structured lower debt companies in operation, then it never will. The perfect storm is in place with only a war that could fan the flames anymore. Some UK shares should feasibly more than treble. Under investment, premature ESG moves and political gamesmanship. Things couldn't be better primed for the final bull imo. My stall is set, win or lose.
There is many a wet lettuce on this board. If you're a long term holder stop moaning about intraday movements, put your phone/laptops away and enjoy the sunny weather. This is next years success story...or the one after that. Buy while it's cheap, there wont be another opec oversupply followed with a pandemic again....ever.