Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The announced contract expansion discussion with weichai is taking a long time. I suspect that this will be a larger transaction than envisaged. Both weichai and Bosch last invested at a premium to the current price. Since then, electrolysis has become a major additional opportunity. I have no information advantage but I sense that something big and positive is about to drop
In my opinion NEX is now in play. If the SGC proposal isn't immediately and substantially accretive then a break-up will come. The whole sector is under valued, financeable (use EQT as the model) and ripe for private equity.
Ceres presenting at 8.45 ET tomorrow to the Morgan Stanley Sustainable Futures Conference. It's the first time that the company has been given a platform at a global conference run by a major investment bank. Coupled with the move to the main market which will attract North American institutions, this is a big step forwards.
This is a huge deal. The two largest shareholders are adding 100m to the 40% stake they took between them last year. Use of funds is development and commercialization of electrolysis (green hydrogen). On the trial results just announced not only is it more efficient (85%) but less expensive per pound ($1.50) than competing technologies. Well done Ceres. No surprise the discount is tiny on the book build. It was multiple times oversubscribed immediately. Lots of institutions will have to buy in the market.
Nice to see school buses specifically included for a couple of billion. Merry Christmas NEX..
transport / leisure stocks worldwide are catching a bid. Significant strength into the US close tonight. Clear evidence that vaccine delivery is going to happen quickly (Moderna and Pfizer should be going out to healthcare workers before christmas) and therapeutics clearly work too. The market is starting to discount the path to normalization and this should accelerate as we move through year end. NEX has a real chance of doubling and more and is significantly less risky than cruise line and airlines.
Well the GMPD just rose in my estimation. Savvy arbiters of value.
This is a standard document that the company files EVERY YEAR as a placeholder to allow it to issue debt if required within its existing facility. It does not imply any impending issuance and has nothing to do with equity (shares)
There's a very good reason - movie release delays are causing a squeeze in bulk content prices and they can get a little more for reruns of Poirot from Amazon et al.
don't confuse NEX with the rest of these UK bus stocks. The US assets are the key to value recovery. FGP has some but the balance sheet is flakey. The others really aren't so interesting IMO
If you want to really understand what's happening to NEX then track other heavily beaten up reopen stocks that correlate. DUFN SW (duty free), BCO (brinks US), SABR (sabre US), Loomis SS (Sweden) etc. all good businesses trading at stupid valuations that no institution wanted on their books until recently. Private equity is all over DUFN, G4S (brinks bought their best assets and trades at a deep discount) and FGP. if these other stocks don't rerate quickly then they will be next. Too much liquidity in the world for cheap assets to last for long in public markets. Obviously just my opinion but I think they all climb steadily back to FV over the next few months, maybe faster
250p could be realised for the US school bus operations alone today from any number of interested buyers. Watch what FGP get for theirs. The rest of NEX is worth at least another 200p. Fair value for the group is much higher IMO. Why do you think 250 for the whole?
20cents on the credit and zero on equity is the worst back of the envelope I can do for now.. but it’s the middle of the night here in the usa and I only have Bloomberg on my phone so limited info
Just looking at the register and this could be a problem. 20% is Global City Theatres BV ( do they have any money?) then Polaris (hedge fund), HL.... the only real institutions are aviva and standard. It’s going to be tough getting an underwritten book.
The credit is more likely to be the axe here but that all depends how much $$ they need
Just checked the bank debt which closed around 75 on Friday. If that drops hard it’s probably better risk adj than the equity
I have no position in this but it is interesting. I’d make the following observations:
1. Movie theatres already had huge competitive pressure from technology and the rate of digital change has been accelerated by covid.
2. Popcorn and soda were a disproportionate part of margins.. and that, like other buffet / self service options, may be a thing of the past.
3. It’s a high fixed cost business.
However, you can be sure that this very commercial management team are no fools. FTI, houlihan .. whomever they use.. will have been working on a restructuring for weeks. They will have engaged with landlords and interrogated the cost base. It also sounds like they are pressing for govt support.
If this headline is true then the company has to confirm and tell shareholders the plan. Mothball, rights issue, administration .. whatever it is.. before the shares trade
If you look at VAP / time analysis over the past several days it's likely that there is sustained institutional buying from the USA. The bidding for FGPs school buses is hot and will likely result in a very positive read across to NEX US school bus assets.