Member Info for Valuation-it-is

MO 10.56
Techmet invested a total of £18m - but that was in Cornish Lithium - from which CUSN derives a number of benefits.
CUSN's key investor is Sir Mick Davis's Blue Wave Resources which put in £25m and has warrants which enable it to put in another £37.5m at an exercise price of 27p per share.
There is a wall of money approaching the electrification metals area from the US and elsewhere, and the explorers, miners and processors are all in line to receive funding. It looks as if the battle to find finance is rapidly changing to a battle to invest in the players. Good news indeed.

MO 9.48
More evidence of an AUKUS origin is the statement:-
"the only Gigafactory across the globe with an ex-Asia supply chain"

MO 9.17 Interesting post.
Good morning MO and all. I have read some strange stuff in my time but the link to
https://www.scalefacilitation.com/scalefund
certainly provides some unusual reading. A "Hybrid" fund. I wonder who/ what is in the funding mix? I also wonder who is behind it, who wrote it? I picked up some hints - US and defence were mentioned. It smacks of AUKUS to me. Although it was not mentioned as such. If it is, then it is very good news as money may flow quick and fast, which is what is needed.
The pieces of the jig saw puzzle are coming together very fast. IP, site, planning permission, raw material sourcing, and now another strong potential customer. Finance will be the final ingredient, made easier by today's RNS, and my guess is that there is some competition to provide it.

ASHGAS 14.51

Good find. The company's website offers several briefing sessions as follows:-

"To share its plans with local people, Cornish Lithium will host the following three community engagement events at Blackwater Village Hall:

A project presentation by Cornish Lithium’s management team, followed by a Q&A session, from 5pm to 7pm on Thursday 23rd February;

A community drop-in session from 10am to 12 noon on Saturday 25th February; and

A further community drop-in session from 2pm to 4pm on Tuesday 28th February.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/02/06/australian-electric-battery-maker-buys-britishvolt-administration/

Good evening Bubble
Interesting programme - thx

here is a link
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001hz7x/countryfile-underground-britain

Thanks pawgee - and here is a link
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001hz7x/countryfile-underground-britain

Very interesting programme, but they did not get across to the viewers that the red river will soon be a lot cleaner as a result of the water treatment plant being constructed by Cornish Metals (CUSN) at South Crofty, nor that CUSN would be keeping the waste underground rather than making a new set of waste tips on the surface. I hope the viewers are not mis-led.

Good Morning Singhie
Sorry to ask a basic question, but do we actually know what the revised hedge arrangements are? Are your figures for the hedge requirements based on those published in the last report and accounts i.e. the initial hedge, or has the been published somewhere what the revision was following the lack of expected production in the Summer last year?

Good morning MO
Thanks for the interesting posts.
Do you know of any other company that plans to use recycled lithium as a feedstock, in the UK or EU? This factor will further burnish ALK's ESG credentials.
How do you think the timeline to ALK financing is progressing? I am wondering if ALK is still talking to multiple parties or if they have narrowed the field down to two or three?
And do you know what proportion of Chinese lithium supply is 1. imported 2. from Chinese owned companies outside China?
BW Vii

Good Morning LB

Yes TechMet are investors in CL. They have invested two tranches of £9m each at rising prices in CL. If I remember correctly TM has some funding from the US Dept of Defence amongst other big names. Not only do they bring finance to CL they also bring considerable mining/metals expertise.
I will take a look at the blog - many thanks, Vii

https://alkemycapital.co.uk/investors/company-presentations

MO

Well worth posting that interview again. Thanks. At the end of the day it may all come down to which company can produce the lithium products at the lowest prices. In that respect, ALK seem to be well set up, with the likliehood of plentiful cheap power (when the wind blows), a well educated workforce upon which to draw, much of the necessary infrastructure already in place, and a well thought-through supply chain. Al of those are considerable advantages to have versus European competition.
Otherwise great to hear that John Walker (TVL CEO) lives in the Central Mining District (Cornwall), so his connections with CL and BL are bound to be easy.

This article is focussed on the outlook for the tin price:-
https://www.mining.com/web/column-tin-on-the-rebound-as-china-scoops-up-surplus-metal/

ASHGAS 8.54

Many thanks for your post. It seems as if Indonesia is gradually going to reduce exports of concentrate and try to get more of the processing done in its own country. I am not sure it will impact overall supply very much.
On a slightly negative note there was an article alongside with comments about the outlook for Copper, Tin, Zinc etc.
https://www.mining.com/web/column-analysts-wary-of-base-metals-after-china-recovery-rally/
which included:-
"Perils of forecasting
Tin is a good reminder of the challenges of commodities forecasting, the LME tin price having registered both an all-time high of $51,000 per tonne and a two-year low of $17,350 over the course of 2022.
The median forecast is for tin to average $23,670 per tonne in 2023, a sharp fall from last year’s average price of $31,362 per tonne. But expectations among the 17 analysts contributing a tin forecast span a wide price spectrum between a high of $30,959 and a low of $19,014.
That said, last January’s median forecast proved surprisingly close to the mark at $34,880 in what was a year of extraordinary volatility.
Also close were the median calls on copper ($9,370 per tonne versus an actual $8,814) and zinc ($3,225 vs $3,484). A median lead forecast of $2,155.50 per tonne was almost spot on relative to last year’s actual average of $2,153.00."

Elsewhere I read that Chinese consumers have hundreds of billions in forced savings - i.e. money they have not been able to go out and spend during covid, so following the opening up, this money may filter through into spending on electrical items, boosting demand for tin and copper in particular.

Major Oak
Hi, I am in awe of your posting efforts to keep us informed and am reading them daily. Many thanks
Re ALK, I think the price came back in line with a general market move amongst Lithium stocks and then some more because of negative sentiment around British Volt. The latter is not a big part of ALK's business case so the drop was unjustified in my view. Looking forward, ALK aims to supply a part of the demand coming from the 30? battery plants being set up in Europe - a demand which will far outweigh ALK's supply. So the need for ALK and its business case looks extremely attractive to me. The small scale funding help from HMG cannot be anything other than a helpful vote of confidence too. So I am optimistic of the chances of ALK getting the funding on attractive terms as I think there will be competition to provide funding for this project. It looks to me as if ALK is in a position to be first on the cost curve in Europe which is a promising position to be in. The only negative that might be there is what the Chinese are doing and what their cost structure looks like compared to ALK's. But that is an unknown to me. If anything I am likely to double up.
Anyway good luck MO, great to chat.

LB
Good morning.
The underground processing not only has a very beneficial result for local communities it considerably reduces the cost of hoisting to surface. Win, win
What the Hemerdon situation tells me is that HMG is needed to intervene to bring about a level playing field internationally. If our mines have to be able to compete fairly, HMG should not be burdening them with costs their overseas competitors do not have. Energy and manpower costs are two areas where our guys are fighting uphill against Chinese competitors. HMG seem slow to realise this and reaction or help seems unlikely. Shame.

I looked at the link you posted about the need for scores more mines. I can't see it happening in time. But that is a huge advantage to CUSN and TUN. They have existing mines with considerable established infrastructure so they can be brought into production far, far quicker than a new mine. Our guys will be producing as the shortages are really impacting the price of the metals.
Quite apart from the time it takes to get a new mine up and running, there is the problem of staffing it. Again, our guys have an advantage. They are staffing up now, ahead of the surge in demand for qualified people.

Any thoughts on the outlook for Tin, Copper, Lithium and Tungsten? In my view the first three seem to have very positive outlooks, but for Tungsten it seems a bit mixed; with demand from the Oil and Gas sector likely to decline, but being offset by massively increased demand for munitions and the mining sector.
Vii

Great to chat LB.

TUN ordered and bought 7 xrt ore sorters but plan now to use only four, keeping one in reserve. The other two may be sold, as this kit is now much in demand. I think they are being stored in the NE until they can be set up in a new housing. The new BFS has reduced the amount of ore to be accepted (acceptance rate) for further processing from 30% to 18%. This means much less processing cost for a small reduction in recovery.
I think CUSN plans to do some sorting underground to save lifting hundreds of thousands of tonnes to the surface and seems likely to use the same or similar kit - assuming it fits down the mine.
Thereafter I do not know how the further processing differs in the two companies. TUN will obviously be focusing on WO3 whereas CUSN will focus on tin with different ores. CUSN will be currently reviewing how it processes the ore in the light of changes to costs of inputs since their 2017 economic assessment.

lovelyboy 10.00

Like you, I have wondered whether there might be some cost savings by amalgamating CUSN's and TUN's tin processing.
I don't think there is, without a rail link, as the likely volumes of ore to be transported are large, requiring many lorry movements in or out of Hemerdon/ SC. Lorry movements are a sensitive issue for the former.

Looking at final tin production figures rather than ore figures...........................
Production envisaged:-
Hemerdon......
Average annual production of 2,900 tonnes of WO3 in concentrate and 310 tonnes of Tin ("Sn") in concentrate (Source RNS of 16th January.)

South Crofty
The 2017 PEA envisaged and average production of tin of 4,335 tonnes (9.71m lbs) Source:- Page 168 section 22.1 of the PEA
So tin production at SC is likely to far exceed that of TUN at Hemerdon. That suggests to me, that any tin-specific processing i.e. after Tungsten has been extracted, is better done at SC as there would be far less to transport. This does assume that it would be possible to process the differently sourced ores the same way, which may not be the case.
A close look at the flow sheets might shed more light.

lovelyboy Sunday 22.25

Thanks for the post. Great to see the WTP's rapid development from above. Further down the linked in website there is the video of RW's December presentation to the ITA which has also become available on the company website, which gives a recent view of developments at the company. see below.
https://cornishmetals.com/investors/presentations/

https://lnkd.in/gzunudTG

Thanks = I'll take a look at the Glen board.