RE: APTA + PEPAS24 Feb 2026 14:41
Oh, bless your little 2D heart for playing armchair geologist with a ruler and some public intercepts. Let's dismantle this fan-fiction resource guesstimate with actual facts, shall we? First, congrats on spotting that high-grade shoots in breccia pipes are "nuggety" and down-dip holes can smear grades—gold-star revelation from Geology 101. Everyone who's ever looked at an epithermal system in the Mid-Cauca belt knows that. The company has said as much in multiple RNS since 2024: APTA is complex, structurally offset, not ready for MRE, needs more drilling to understand geometry. You're not breaking news; you're repeating the company's own cautionary language while pretending it's your profound insight.Now, your "best judgement - on the line" maths: High-grade core: ~20m × 50m × 300m = 780 kt @ ~5–6 g/t → ~120 koz. Cute, but you pulled those dimensions straight out of thin air from one "truer width" intercept in MAP036 (20.4m @ 5.4 g/t). Ignoring density variations, variable true thickness along strike, fault displacements (>100 m offsets you mention yourself), and the fact that the company describes APTA as a series of mineralised structures—not a neat little pipe you can shoehorn into a rectangular prism.
Broader halo: 75 × 250 × 500 m = 15–20 Mt, discount 20–30% waste → ~15 Mt @ 1.6 g/t → ~658 koz. Ah yes, the classic retail "upside case" where you inflate strike × width × arbitrary depth, slap on a vague average grade pulled from thin air (0.5–3 g/t halo? Based on what—vibes?), then casually subtract "waste" like you're Bara Consulting with a full Leapfrog block model. Spoiler: you're not. The company has 38,000 m drilled at APTA already and still won't touch an MRE because continuity is trash. Your back-of-napkin 658 koz is pure fantasy fiction—optimistic even compared to forum pump dreams.
Pepas got 79 holes for a rigorous NI 43-101 MRE of ~219 koz (mostly Indicated, pit-constrained at $3,000/oz). APTA? Longer strike potential, sure, but far more disrupted. The company explicitly plans "additional drilling in 2026" to merely advance toward an MRE—not imminently declare one. Yet here you are, handing out ~778 koz like free candy before a single wireframe is drawn.If this is your "caution" surrounding APTA, it's the opposite: reckless optimism dressed in caution cosplay. The market already knows the risks—that's why we're trading mid-20s GBp after the Pepas "sell-the-news" despite $5,000+ gold. Your post doesn't add caution; it adds dilution-level hopium. So, by all means, keep "calling it on the line" from your spreadsheet. The grown-ups will wait for actual 3D modelling, infill, metallurgical work, and a competent person sign-off instead of cosplaying as one. Until then, your 658 koz "on the line" belongs exactly where it came from: the LSE chat bin, right next to every other pre-MRE moonshot guess that never materialised.
Carry on, champ. The thread needs entertainment.