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Citadel position now reportable.

Nothing, other than that they can't spell...

I'm surprised at how much relevance the market attaches to the Board's views on the trading outlook for the year ahead, given that the same Board underestimated the sales for the Christmas period. It's all a bit "finger in the air" and should be viewed in that context IMHO.

The BOD will have good insight into some aspects affecting profits for the year ahead but they don't know how many other aspects will play out in practice. It's an estimate and their last one wasn't that spectacular.

I must have a medical condition that doesn't allow me to sweat. I first noticed it in a Pizza Express when I was eating an American Hot. There was absolutely no sweat despite the jalapeños.

Again, today I feel no sweat despite the double digit percentage drop in the SP. Card Factory are taking in more money than they estimated, are reducing debt and will deal with any inflationary pressures in the same way as other retailers will have to. The shops are open and busy, and that's the most important thing to remember.

Prices may have to go up but from where they are now we can count on the fact that we will still be cheaper than the rest. Let's face it, a 5p/10p increase on the price of a greeting card won't put most of our customers off from buying one.

GLA

Pat2014 - the market sees things that we don't... ? That cliché simply doesn't apply here.

Firstly, the SP has fallen due to concerns that inflation would cut into profits. The impact of inflation had not escaped the attention of most people on here. We saw inflationary concerns having a similar impact on the SP of Greggs and Next earlier this month.

Secondly, Lombard are not "the market". The market valued Card Factory at 63p yesterday so I guess the market got it wrong?

Finally, Lombard also got it wrong. Their short first appeared when the SP was 54p. The SP is still above that even now. Okay, they've averaged up to about 57p but their original position would have left them out of the money. Even now they are not making a killing.

I'm as disappointed with today's drop as anyone else but misplaced clichés are not helpful right now.

Potential covid restrictions may have played a part in reaching the decision to short but I suspect that they based their decision primarily on the trading statement released by the company at 07.00 on 8 November 2021. I don't think it's a coincidence that the short was created/increased on the same day.

What they saw in the trading statement that made them think the price would drop below 54p (as it was at the time) is anyone's guess. The SP has generally moved upwards since the short appeared.

I think they've averaged up to 56/57p now based on Roxbury's calculations but that would still leave them needing a 10% drop just to break even.

All IMO and DYOR.

The short position became reportable on 8 November 2021.

You can find this kind of information on www.shorttracker.co.uk

Hope this helps.

That's what I thought too.

Some are ordinary trades but that could be a buyer/seller placing deals manually on an account with no dealing charges.

In addition to the Shoe Zone results, it is helpful to remember that there is a short position open on Card Factory. There wasn't a (reportable) short open on Shoe Zone.

If the results are as good as Shoe Zone's, we may find that Lombard scramble to close their short position. That could, in theory, lead to an additional boost in the Card Factory SP.

All speculation at this stage and DYOR.

You appear to be quite touchy about this.

The FT Article, which is what this thread is about, is about RR's sale of Bergen and the company's efforts to rebuild the balance sheet by raising €2bn. Nothing to do with investment, SMR or otherwise. It's all about debt reduction which is what my initial post concerned.

You can make out that debt reduction is why the funding of SMR was possible but there is nothing to support that claim beyond your perceived insight. Was the B52 refit contingent on RR's debt reduction being a success? Nope. That's not why we got the business, was it?

The Covid losses are there and they need to be cleared. Its not a marketing exercise designed to lead to new investment.

The sale of ITP Aero and Bergen have nothing to do with the funding of SMR.

Please read the RNS from 9 November 2021 at 07.00. Half the funding is from two companies and the other half is being funded by the Government (or should I say US, the taxpayer).

Asset disposals aren't always a good thing. Selling the family silver springs to mind. Sure, reducing debt is a positive but that is offset by the reduction in future revenue generating streams.

Hopefully they can use some of the cash generated by these sales to make profitable long term investments.

Hi Banburyboy.

The trading update was on 14 January last year and 9 January the year before. Given that Monday is 10 January it is feasible that an RNS could drop first thing.

However, the last three January trading updates dropped on a Thursday so potentially you still have a few days to make a decision. My best guess would be 07.00 on Thursday 13.

All IMO as always.

Still nothing on the CF website about the next trading update. Going on previous years, there could be one as early as first thing Monday morning.

I expect that sales for the Christmas period will be strong. There may be some negative news on such things as supply chain disruption and inflationary pressures. Seen that with both Next and Greggs, both of which took a hit this week despite strong sales.

I'm quite interested to see how the debt reduction is progressing. I think that news on this aspect could determine which direction the SP takes in the immediate short term.

The outlook for 2022 should be sunny.

All IMHO, DYOR and GLA.

horley - if that were the case, why open the position three months odd ahead of the January trading update?

Would they not just wait until this week before opening a position?

Beachbum1978 - the reason for incrementally increasing the short is to bring up their average price and thereby the break even point.

The higher their average price, the smaller the potential loss. There's no other obvious reason to carry on with it, assuming that the reasons for opening the position back in November 2021 are no longer relevant.

I can see Ordinary (rather than Automatic Execution) trades going though for 1 share and 5 shares. Who on earth needs to raise 64p and 320p respectively? Somebody trying to manipulate the prices, that's who.

Good luck with that Lombard! Can't wait for that short squeeze. A nice 20% gain in one day would be most appreciated ;)

My best guess now would be that Lombard are expecting a whole load of shares to become available soon after the next trading update. Shares flooding the market should drive the price down. But will it drive the SP down 10-20% from where we are today... ? Doubt it myself.

I hold well into six figures and I don't plan on cashing in any shares until near the tax year end and then only enough to utilise some CGT allowance for shares held outside of a wrapper.

This stock can and should break 100pps this year IMHO, so why sell at 70, 80 or even 90pps? Within 12 months we should have dividends back and then we're in the 130-150pps range IMHO. If there are are enough PIs holding with a longer term outlook, then Lombard could be in a bit of a pickle.

As always, DYOR. I know that a lot will depend in the longer term on the next Covid varient of concern but I'm feeling relatively bullish on that. Anyway, next winter seems a long way away.

I think they are painting themselves into a corner.

It's fun to watch :)

Maybe they did so much trade in the run up to Christmas that they don't need to be open for a couple of days.

Too busy counting all that cashola to be open right now ;)