Member Info for urai5

Sorry, but this language rule is irresponsible. The answer does not help in any way to understand the reasons for the stop in the development of Tulu Kapi.

Here you have the map of the British government regarding travel recommendations in Ethiopia. According to my research, Tulu Kapi is north of the "E" of ETHIOPIA, in the red zone.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/611cf66dd3bf7f63b45df0fa/FCDO__TA__017_-_Ethiopia_Travel_Advice_Ed5.pdf

My concern has always been that the federal army might succumb to the TPLF rebels in the Tigray conflict. In addition, the Oromo rebels (Oromo Liberation Front OLF) allied themselves with the Tigray rebels - and are fighting the government and the federal army together.

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As of June 30, 2021, KEFI still had GBP 948k cash.

Plus current liabilities: Loans and borrowings 2,263k GBP (10): Cash payment in less than one year: 1,873k GBP plus interest 390k GBP.

Of which payable to key management and shareholders 2,026k GBP (Note 12.3)

12.3 Payable to related parties, fees for services:
Winchcombe Ventures Limited, 547k GPB
https://opencorporates.com/companies/cy/HE155849

Nanancito Limited, 1,201k GBP
https://opencorporates.com/companies/cy/HE351231

Directors, 278k GBP

Winchcombe and Nanacito are Cypriot off-shore companies. Partly possibly infiltrated by Russians. At Nanacito: Directors / Officers, NADEJDA RAZORENOVA, secretary

In addition:
12.2 Transactions with shareholders and related parties, Receiving of management and other professional services

- Winchcombe Venture Limited, 377k GBP
- Nanancito Limited/Mr.Nicoletto, 257k GBP

The question is: What services did the Cypriot off-shore companies provide to move Tulu Kapi forward and create shareholder value?

urai5
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Thank you @Robjm66. Is understandable.
urai5

You can find the answer here:
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/afritin_mining/news/rns/story/w0yvyzx

- CAPEX: 5.7mUSD
- A project implementation schedule of eight months has been modeled. This includes a two-week total plant shutdown, but otherwise production will continue during the implementation period, minimizing production interruptions.

Perhaps someone knew exactly when the work will begin or the 8 months will begin to run. It should be noted that the DFS was calculated with a tin price of 20k$ and by product credits of lithium and tantalum were not included.

urai5

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That's the question now: $100m or $500 in revenue per year.

"The company expects to have revenues of more than $500-million a year in the next five years and is setting its sights on becoming a new technology champion of Africa."

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/things-are-very-rosy-in-the-world-of-afritin-anthony-viljoen-2021-07-15/rep_id:3650

urai5

DSM has no impact on ATM. DSM lost the license because they had to create a PFS; however, they only created an update to the PEA. According to the DSM, the company informed the mining authority. But the authorities never approved the change in writing. This is now a case for the courts, first Namibia and then International - and it will take years.

urai5
P.S. I have been investing in ATM since January 2021 - with a brief interruption. Motivation is metal (tin, lithium and tantalum) for Green Deal and EV revolution.

I have also checked this article - as far as this is possible from a few thousand km distance and in Amaharic. I assume that the article is genuine. But the addressee of the mining authority's warning does not primarily concern Kefi Gold and Copper. This warning concerns reluctant local investors. The tam-tam with these potential local investors has also lasted another year since ANS Mining ended. Poker and Hakuna Matata was their stragie. Now the poker - on better prices - ended. Without Kefi Gold and Copper having to upset locals. So I even classify this contribution as positive. The moment of truth has now struck for Kefi, for HAA and for us shareholders.
urai5

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Here are the dates:

License: MOM\LSML\81\2015
Active
Tulu-Kapi Gold Mine share company (TKGM), Ethiopia
Large Scale Mining License (LSML)
Application Date:
17/03/2015
Grant Date:
13/04/2015
Expiry Date:
12/04/2035
Resources:
Gold and Basemetals
Area:
6.9793 Square Kilometre
*LSML: Large Scale Mining License

Here is the current list of revoked licenses - Tulu Kapi is not included:
http://www.mom.gov.et/index.php/revoked-licenses-2/

urai5

Curtin University and Tulu Kapi Gold Mines Company (TKGM)
The MoMP has a memorandum of understanding with Australia’s Curtin University (home of the Western Australian School of Mines and the Tulu Kapi Gold Mines Company (TKMG) a subsidiary of KEFI Minerals, to work on:
- Filling in some of the capacity gaps in mining and petroleum engineering in Ethiopia
- Resource reserve estimation
- Mining and petroleum economics

urair

This applies: the mining authority has an institutional cooperation with Tulu Kapi Gold Mines Company:

http://www.mom.gov.et/index.php/international-cooperation/current-projects-2/

urai5

Excerpt from RNS, June 7, 2021:

"KEFI is thus projecting approximately 78% of TKGM's 190,000 oz pa gold production along with a 34% interest in G&M, which we expect could earn us a higher production interest than our larger percentage interest in TKGM."

urai5

... that the Tulu Kapi mine will be effectively built in the near future. The job is located at "Site Services." "Site" is the mine with the Processing Plant for place. Posted May 20, 2021; application is open until June 3, 2021.

One requirement for the job is:
Must be willing to be based in rural/remote settings.

https://www.ethiojobs.net/display-job/302962/Security-Risk-Manager.html?searchId=1621687269.214&page=1

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Before the end of June, the AGM should take place. 21 days before, Kefi Gold and Copper has to make an announcement for the attention of the shareholders. This must also contain the agenda items. Last date for the RNS: June 9, 2021.

urai5
P.S. Link:
https://cleartax.in/s/annual-general-meeting-companies-act-2013#:~:text=exceed%2015%20months.-,Procedure%20to%20Hold%20an%20AGM,be%20conducted%20at%20the%20AGM.

... no, not for Tulu Kapi or Kefi Gold and Copper. In my opinion, this is a targeted warning from the government to potential local investors in Tulu Kapi. End Hakuna Matata! The government - and also HAA with Kefi - want local investors. For Tulu Kapi, this would only be advantageous for a profitable production. ANS Mining has now brought 2 years of delay. By summer, power and feeder road routes should be built. So now it is final for the hesitant locals: take it or leave it.

urai5

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After yesterday's powder vapor has settled and the nerves have calmed down again - including mine, it is worth analyzing yesterday's RNS in more detail once again.

Main message concerns (page 3):
Tulu Kapi Project Milestones in the Short Term.

The key steps to progress the development of the Tulu Kapi gold mine during the first half of 2021 include the following:
Finance:
- approval and execution of detailed finance documentation; and
- receipt of project equity/subordinated debt subscriptions (senior debt drawdown is anticipated to follow in H2 2021).

That's when the previously communicated schedule would be fully confirmed without any qualification. What we have been waiting for for months is the definitive commitment from local investors for at leastUS$10m. Because with this capital the mine development with preparatory work is to be initiated. This includes in particular the construction of the new starter houses and the relocation of the local population living on the future mine site. The question arises, will now wait for the full completion to start the work - but then too late because of the rainy season from July - with corresponding further delays of one year.

On page 2 is the possible answer to these questions:
In addition, a standby facility of c.US$15 million has now been included in the finance plan to provide additional headroom

standby facility
a standby (loan) facility, which is a facility which can be called upon in certain circumstances, such as where costs are in excess of budgets, as agreed by the lenders;
https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/guides/key-terms-in-project-finance-funding-agreements

My assessment: work to prepare the mine site started on time. The work will be financed by the new (probably short-term) credit facility.

The credit facility would be repaid in 3Q 2021:
- either through the capital of local investors
- Or through a capital increase at Kefi Gold and Copper.

But the risk for us old shareholders is low. Even if there would be a caital increase, at plus/minus GBX 2, our stake in Tulu Kapi would increase from planned minimum 65% to up to 80%.

I remain invested and am convinced that the market should take a more realistic view of the current situation, which is still fraught with additional risks. I do not expect - with unchanged information - further sustained share price losses - rather a stabilization with a subsequent slight upward trend until the final closing of the financing.

urai5
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I can understand the disappointments very well - include myself there; I am also disappointed. But if you can't handle it, you'd better not invest in explorers/developers in mining, and certainly not in Africa.

However, analytically - even a bit between the lines - I don't see a time lag. The following statements point in this direction (ex RNS of 4/14/2021):

1. In June 2021, the all-important AGM at KEFI Gold and Copper is planned.
- receipt of Project equity/subordinated debt subscriptions to settle following the KEFI Annual General Meeting in June 2021 and senior debt drawdown to then follow in H2 2021;

As of June 2021, the AGM of KEFI Gold and Copper ("our" company) is scheduled. Also important elections in Ethiopia: These are scheduled for June 2021. My take: Tulu Kapi is to be sold as a success of the incumbent government just before election day.

2. Quite obviously, preparatory work continues.

resettlement preparations in accordance with World Bank IFC performance standards;

continue building new starter houses and associated infrastructure for resettled community;

A total of about 260 families must be resettled. This must be done as soon as the critical earthworks for the mine begin.

3. Preparatory work as of 1st semester 2021.

Construction:
- continue access road construction and electricity connection from main grid to site;
- start bulk earthworks for on-site infrastructure; and
- start fabrication of plant components in various factories internationally.

I don't see any (hidden/concealed) constraints there that could further delay the start of production as of 2023; commissioning end of 2022. Also important: the time-consuming part of the construction is the construction of the Processing Plant. The parts of the plant will be constructed in China and then assembled at the mine site. The Plant is financed by the senior debt of two African banks of $140m.

HAA is going further and further out on a limb. Soon there will be no more well-worded phrases left to keep the international investors on board. I don't see any existence-threatening (political) problems at the moment, as recently with Maynmar Metals or Greenland Minerals.

urai5
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Further indication that funding may have been arranged; advertisement posted March 30, 2021:

https://www.ethiojobs.net/display-job/296338/Interpreter-Compliance-Officer.html?searchId=1617547319.769&page=1

My View: This position is really not needed until the mine is actually built.

urai5

Check out this link from May 2020 in Amharic:

https://news.et/2020/05/01/%E1%8B%A8%E1%8A%A2%E1%89%B5%E1%8B%AE%E1%8C%B5%E1%8B%AB -% E1% 8A% A4% E1% 88% 8C% E1% 8A% AD% E1% 89% B5% E1% 88% AA% E1% 8A% AD-% E1% 8A% 83% E1% 8B% AD % E1% 88% 8D-% E1% 88% 88% E1% 8A% AB% E1% 8D% 92-% E1% 8B% A8% E1% 8B% 88% E1% 88% AD /

Easy to understand with Online Translator.

?????? ?????? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ????? ????? ?????

Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) has signed an agreement to supply gold mining power to Gimbi Tulu Kapi. Construction time: 13 months. The mine is being built. Energy is a basic requirement. The new infrastructure will be financed by the goverment.

In April 2021 we will get an RNS.

urai5
P.S. More up-to-date information on Tulu Kapi resp. Kefi Gold and Copper - what we don't already know - I haven't found.

As I understand, the local population is on their fields during the rainy season to cultivate them. So the population has to move during the dry season.

Now is the moment of truth for the CEO HAA - and also for us, shareholders. There is no more Hakuna Matata. I also assume the following scenario:

- For understandable reasons, the Ethiopian government would like local investors to participate in Tulu Kapi.

- Based on the statements by HAA, I assume that the deadline for this is March 31, 2021: Take it or leave it.

- That means: by April at the latest we will know how the financing - especially the 10m USD - will be finally regulated: Local investors, capital increase Kefi, sub-debt, etc.

Since it is getting tight again, I looked again at the rainy season in Ethiopia. This is important insofar as the local population has to move into their new starter houses before the rainy season. If this does not happen, there is again a delay of up to another year.

Therefore I checked again about the rainy season in Ethiopia: The rainy season starts in June and lasts until September. The Ethiopians also know a so-called small rainy season. It is located in the months of February and March, especially in the regions with higher rainfall (also Tulu Kapi). The dry season runs from October to May. The relocation would therefore have to take place in the two months of April and May.

urai5