Member Info for urai5

Thanks.
But this position was also advertised at the end of March 2022.
Generated at 09:33:02 29-Mar-2022 with custom-10-0-3col

You must go on Webpage: "view source".

urai5

Correctly. It's about the housing of the construction workers and probably later mine workers. It is all the more important that this function was not advertised now, but at the end of March 2022 is o.K.

urai5
P.S. My knowledge of the English language is not that good.

Wouldn't be so good if this role was just being advertised now. Because I expect that the planning for the resettlement and the operation of the new settlement will now take place.

But I think the job posting was created on the following date:
Generated at 09:33:02 29-Mar-2022 with custom-10-0-3col

Link:
view-source:https://www.advance-africa.com/tulu-kapi-gold-mine-site-facilities-superintendent-jobs-in-ethiopia.html

urai58

The following should be noted:
14.2% of the shares are not in "public hands", i.e. not available for free trading. This concerns RAB Capital as the largest single shareholder as well as the insiders (directors incl. HAA and management).

HAA owns the 3.8% via Winchcombe Ventures Limited ((Cyprus, HAA (co-)owner)):
https://cyprusregistry.com/companies/HE/155849
and on the other hand the direct insider engagement of around 54.7m shares or 1.86%.
https://www.kefi-minerals.com/files/announcements/kefi-placing-directorate-change-21dec21.pdf

The "nominees" are companies that have been entrusted with the custody of securities of the (private) investors. So our shares are there.

The shares held by nominees and those that are not freely tradable comprise just under 85%. The remaining 15% are probably held by the Cypriot (and what else do I know) "friends" of HAA.

All in all, I see that HAA presumably holds 5% directly or indirectly in Kefi Gold and Copper. Add to that the remaining insiders plus the friends plus RAB. So all in all, one third of the shares (without warrants/options) are in HAA's sphere of influence. Fully diluted probably even more. 2/3 of the shares including my 0.xx% are with Public Investors.

And now - Conclusion:
HAA has skin in the game with its "friends" - are substantially involved. I now hope that the massive dilution has come to an end and ALL in HAA's haze now have sufficient shares. With the closing of the financing at Tulu Kapi and further positive developments in Saudi Arabia, the share price should then be able to rise sustainably.

urai58
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/ethiopia
Updated:
7 April 2022
Latest update:
Update on the easing of entry restrictions; travellers can now show proof of COVID-19 vaccination or recovery on entry.

HAA must now deliver results. Entry into Ethiopia now possible. And please no more Hakuna Matata.

I understood this very well @Robjm66. I am also convinced that locals should have a stake in the success. Only ANS Mining was the wrong vehicle. Let themselves be invited First Class, promised a lot - and could not deliver anything. I would even be in favor of Kefi Gold and Copper lending to local investors for investment. Whatever: This quarter of 2022 is the moment of truth. And I sincerely hope that Kefi Gold an Copper will finally deliver results now and definitely close the financing by the end of June/beginning of July.

My question is about the investment of $9m by locals for 6% of Tulu Kapi. The disaster with ANS Mining 2019/2020 is well known.

1. is there a requirement from the Ethiopian government that locals must invest?

2. what is the probability that the investment of 9m$ will be made in the 2nd quarter of 2022?

3. What is Kefi's contingency plan if the $9m from locals does not happen in Q2 2022?

4. capital increases have been successfully carried out to pay consultants. Why does Kefi Gold and Copper not finance the 9m$ by means of a capital increase - and receive another 6% in Tulu Kapi in return?

urai5

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Riccardo Orcel is the new (21.3.2022) Chairman of Polymetal International.

So I have every confidence that the (personal) banking relationships in the EU - provided POLY continues to be a UK company - should enable future successful business through POLY.
UniCredit is a major Italian bank (total assets over $900 billion and 80,000 employees). The two brothers have already worked together on the IPO of VTB Bank in 2011.

urai5
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Guys, this is highly interesting (@Romek thanks for pointing it out):

https://www.interfax.ru/business/830052

Polymetal owns 75% in the project since 2020. On 24 January 2022 POLY announced the JORC resource estimate of 2.4m AuEq. More than one third copper.

https://polymetalinternational.com/en/investors-and-media/news/press-releases/24-01-2022/?month=&q=&year=2022¤t=1

POLY has 7 years to buy the remaining 25%. Now the question is "why now"!

Here is the likely answer:

https://rosgeo.com/en/about/

RosGeo is a fully state-owned company.

RosGeo is a 100% state-owned exploration company in Russia. Quite obviously Polymetal International wants to sever all ties of JV/assets with the state of Russia (Putin). Because the issue is that Polymetal International is classified as a UK company by the UK government.

urai
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

This is the reason:
https://www.cityam.com/ftse-russell-to-delete-russian-firms-from-indexes-including-evraz/
This change will be effective from the open on 21 March 2022.
urai5

First, thanks to @Robjm66 for sticking it out. I also mentioned you in the German forum wallstreet-online. Looks really good. The financial syndicate is also committed to the Ethiopian government. If the gold price joins in at least $1,800/oz and the Hakuna Matata is finally finished, then we'll see you at >2 GBX later this year.
urai5

I have calculated the NPV for 10 years with a discount rate of 10%.

The following parameters for the Kazakhstan assets:
Operating Profit: 549m$
Net profit share: 75%
Net profit: 400m$.
Asset in Kazakhstan (mainly Processing plant 900m$)

Together with the assets there is a NPV of 3.5 bn$.
Minus Net Debt: 1.6bn$.

Net NPV: 1.9 bn$. 456m shares. 4.2$, 3.1GBP respectively.

Please be sure to note: This includes only the assets in Kazakhstan with Kyzyl and Varvara Hub and also takes into account debt in Russia.

urai5

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Remember when I had massively and publicly angered HAA with my question during a webcast regarding the commitment of the partners in the consortium, especially the lending banks to the Ethiopian government.

HAA had "fought" my question at the time because of a legally not quite correct English expression. I have since realized: he did NOT want to answer the question. Because he would have had to say, no: there is just no commitment.

A few days ago there were talks with the Ethiopian government according to the rumor; after that the purpose-optimistic RNS takes place, according to which the development is on track - as also in former times.

But today in the lse forum there is a link to the contractor Lycopodium. Thank you @robbieishere!

There, under the title "Where we work", Ethiopia is indeed listed with Tulu Kapi. I tried the Wayback site - where old, archived web pages can be retrieved: No mention. Also in Lycopodium's AGM-ppt presentation of November 2021: no mention of Ethiopia with Tulu Kapi.

For me, this is a (very) positive development, Lycopodium's publicly visible commitment to Ethiopia and Tulu Kapi. I assume that the consortium partners had to come out to the Ethiopian government. The lifting of the state of emergency should be another important step; there are absolutely NO excuses left for HAA to not close financing by summer 2022 and not start developing Tulu Kapi on the ground.

So this morning I increased my position in Kefi Gold and Copper some more; gave a small part of Polymetal International (at a profit, after the superficial easing of the Ukraine conflict) in return.

urai5

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

From today's RNS, the following paragraph is the most decisive for me (as someone who is a little "pre-exposed") - of course, besides the fact that the license should be secured until the summer of 2022:

- intense policing operations are being conducted in the areas around Tulu Kapi and other mining projects, which reflects the close collaboration between the authorities and the emerging minerals sector;

That's what it takes: police operations - not combat operations by the army. Therefore, I have decided to rejoin. 50% of the previous position. The quality and profitability of the project is undisputed. Ethiopia needs foreign exchange and good paying jobs. The government should now finally do "its" job: create secure conditions for the financing and construction of the Tulu Kapi mine.

At the current level, the risk is manageable. The assets in Saudi Arabia alone are probably worth more than the current market capitalization. Prices around plus/minus 0.8 GBX are buy prices in my view.

urai5
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Guys, I can understand the anger very well. Because the capital increase to 0.8 GBX is only half the truth.
The part of the debt repayment is calculated at GBX 0.64. Because 25% fixed interest was previously added to the debt. If this usurious interest rate is deducted, the capital increase is carried out at GBX 0.64.

urai5

Escalated Physical traffic?
This is a very crucial point; and sorry, I don't understand it. For me, it's not data and it's not finance. But, for me, "physical" means something "tangible". This may indicate "security issues". Especially also, since the camp is 50 km away from the mine site. In my assessment, it is the contractor, Corico Mine Servives, who sees problems.

Here is the current map. I do not think that this is joke.

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/ethiopia

Thank you for the Feedback.

I remain: what Kefi did yesterday, by rudimentarily addressing security issues - in a civil war country - is irresponsible and amateurish! And if it is calculation, it would be criminal.

But you are right: I also think that Tulu Kapi Mine Site can be protected by a reinforced company of the federal army and a police base. Even more so if gold is produced and stored.

Sorry the link does not work. Google maps and enter "Aira Gulso".

Tulu Kapi is located about 20 km south and about 10 km east of the B43 - in an arc. The B43 axis in the Golaisso arc is rebel territory. Guji is north of Tulu Kapi - also belongs to the exploration license area.

https://www.google.ch/maps/place/Metu+Zuria,+%C3%84thiopien/@9.0925762,35.5328234,11.44z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x17ab6ca0bcc3d6bf:0x3c4761e753657b9!8m2!3d8.2961481!4d35.5821994?hl=de