Member Info for Ups1de

How much of annual profit does GDP get to keep versus minority partner ? For how long ?

Have to laugh at today. Clearly daytraders will take fright & jump. But ask yourself ...IF the gold price keeps rising ( like today) are GDP’s prospects better or worse ?!

Expensive loan also to be repaid by April 2020( not chairman boo boo of April 2019!). Further driving positive cashflow & strengthening balance sheet. With gold price up 10% in 3rd quarter & on a tear this fiscal looking strong.

We know the interims next week will be strong. Excellent operating profit, continued overhead cost vigilance & limited capex. This will deliver a serious cashflow boost.This should continue into 2nd half given gold price strength >20% over last year & recent actions. This alone will turbo charge the share price...but what intrigues me is what the Ashanti partnership gold project on the blocks might deliver on top? Any thoughts ?

Hard to believe people still fall for this. Many years of broken promises & false dawns. Just check back on its RNS thread. A complete dog share which has multiplied its share count many times , diluting shareholders significantly on the promise of major wins that never materialise. This destructive dilution just lets the board £compensation tick over. Check it’s track record rather than listen to the rampers. This rinse & repeat has happened so many times. Stockopedia so accurate on its true status.

Can’t believe my luck getting in under 44p. Appreciate a kick in the teeth for existing shareholders but this niche, high st player is way undervalued in my opinion. Worst case I see it worth at least double. Now sit on my hands with a still tidy divi even after cut.

Andreasban , Very much agree .

Agree that there is long term value here. You make an excellent point on quality of their sites. Nevertheless in the short term there seems little to stop share falling further. What could be the bottom ? Paul Scott has proved shrewd on predictions in the past. When sales decline ( & surprise the market) & margins also under pressure there can be an over reaction.When this coincides with market volatility great chance to prosper. It’s dipped under 55p hence my question. We will see.

Paul Scott of Stockopedia was very sceptical after last profit warning. He said he would only look at it @40p. It was over 70p so he’s been directionally right so far. I think that low is too extreme. I am however concerned it will continue to test new lows. They spooked the market with FY profit projection of £6.6-6.8m. Given first half in bag do the Bslsnce to achieve numbers -that’s likely to be a material crash in % margin. Retailers will continue to be battered until Brexit worked through. Personally I think there is value here but momentum & mood certainly is not there for a niche,High st ,formal menwear clothing co. Have they been caught out by trends ? I don’t think they will cut final dividend so decent yield if you can stomach the short term capital hit until order restored.Is another FTSE dip likely before next results ? If so next mkt spook might be a time to buy.

How can you trust a company where ' adjusted' becomes the everyday norm. Look at the different between adjusted & actual profit. Huge one offs ! When do they stop ? If these acquisitions are value adding why doesn't it show up in strong margin growth & lower overheads. Hmmm At least one analyst had balls to call RPC out. Why not others ? Vested interests or not that up with proceedings. Don't get me wrong RPC is not a basket case. Under 700p worth a punt. On current trend & if market spooks not long now.

Lfl declines of 4.5% ! They need to open a profitably trade a couple of factory shops just to mitigate this. Their new partner better turbo charge operating margins to compensate. Doesn't look a winner heading into tougher times for U.K. Consumer.

For 2nd time in a week Costa cards not working in store. So much for digital expertise. More telling is how long it took them to tell local staff( nearly 24 hrs according to my local ). Despite price increase in January volume sales clearly stalling in Costa UK, exiting some International markets & don't seem to have a real clue how to crack China based on the recent capital Day. Can see it testing £38 again soon

Liked the divi so looked carefully at an intrinsic valuation. Not impressed : 1. Where is the growth going to come? Lfl just over 1% in main pub company but HH issues. Post Brexit this could worsen. 2. Brands business ( ~ 11% of total) down -4%+ & likely to accelerate as far more interesting craft beers around 3 Spirit acquisition synergies now being offset by minimum wage / business rate hikes 4 high actual debt & high debt cost averaging 6% ( ouch!) Doubt these shares are worth £6.50 and more downside risk than ups1de unfortunately. Pity as I liked the yield. Any counter to highlight what I'm missing ?

Reading recent posts you'd think the only way is up.What about rising costs from living wage/business rate hits? What about the revenue hit from LFL declines & closures? What about the £19m cash hit for closures/ write downs ?What about the share shorting increased on 23 Nov suggesting at least one hedge fund sees further pain ? I think share price bouncing around near the bottom of its range but cannot see a significant relate any time soon. There will be no revenue growth of any materiality,margins will be down, expansion plans have been curtailed. Next year's operating profit will benefit from closures & hopefully the menu changes/ return of value items will help lfls but it will remain a poor stock until signs of genuine progress in 2917/18.Meantime a stock market plunge( eg caused by Italy election) could drag it down into real bargain territory.

Management have already signaled first half revenues will be good BUT profits down. Given share direction last couple of days likely to see further share price decline Monday?

On trajectory to be DEBT FREE within 2.5 years. Achieving this would deliver a very serious share price re-rate on current pricing. AAZ would comfortably generate $40m +cash pa( assuming no major capex project). What price then ? 60p would be cheap

AAZ now enjoying the opposite of a perfect storm: gold price up significantly this year & markedly up in £ sterling(>40%); silver price up even more .Costs under control with a marked local depreciation of over 40%. So paid in rising $/ reducing local costs( both in country & uk HQ). Sensibly hedged 50% of balance of year gold production to protect ability to service debt ( remember high deprececiation will service capital repayments).Whilst a higher risk market the company is starting to deliver & if interims show no surprises then I very much doubt the company will be valued at PE under 4 with most gold producers valued at PE>12.Hopefully significant ups1de from here as I very much doubt Brexit or Euro bank woes will be sorted soon.

Will test sub 400 probably : Recent LFL sales ( what matters most) in decline with increased casual dining competition & weak new cinema release pipeline in 2016.It only grew sales because of new openings. Also operating margins pressured by impeding living wage increase. Feels like RTN has peaked for now & that means any realistic dcf assumption/ analysis delivers a £400-450 figure. Not great ...and probably why Peel Hunt took £1.20 off today what they think it's worth. Hold fire for a lower share price ...it's coming on down days when the stock market gets the jitters.

Not only is Shell currently buying BG now at around the ' PRE deal announcement' price ( was £9.10 on April 7 & they were going to pay a 50% premium - today BG £9.33); they are also going to pay out the cash portion 3.5% cheaper as $ has strengthened vs £ sterling ( now 1.43 vs 1.48 on deal announcement). Given they are buying for decades of future value creation not this short term oil price dip it looks a very decent deal outcome. Factor in Significant discount to book value; stonking ,committed 2016 divi @9.5%; ability to play market opps with significant downstream cash flow/ cash reserves & I think we will look back on a tremendous value play on offer.

Have people missed that 1) BG deal gets cheaper every day with 2/3 rd of deal tied to Rdsb share price.2)divi now passes through 9% on a rising$ 3) the cure for low oil prices...is low oil prices! Yes it may well be a turbulent 3-6 months but once the Capex tap has been turned off( already happening) & demand starts to exceed supply ( projected by International Energy commission) oil will bounce sharply( over$60 a BTL quickly as the marginal cost of Future undiscovered production is estimated at nearer $70 per BTL .I feel sorry for anyone with average price over £20... But under £14 is a bargain