Member Info for unvrkw

That will do me, I’m thinking June, July and a 40% drop at least. A financial crisis followed by more money into the markets and a commodity run. Back in fxpo by November, £2.60 and on from there!!

Do you think on similar lines of what will happen or different direction?

Like many I had a good 2020. Achieve pension pot numbers twenty years early so I’m chilled in timeframe of investing and what next. I can duck the money out for six months, gain some income and wait it out. Granted if we continued to reach all time highs and go on and on I’d think ****. However at this time I’m always think when is there a drop, I’m not good with the last bit towards the highs, rather chi out of the scene.

i think actually the market is starting to over heat and struggle. we might be seeing some areas do really well especially in the states this week and tech company updates. overall however inflation is hitting and i think things are starting to change in the overall global market

i think this company will come good. i think its pretty low anyway so bad times ahead will have little impact in the overall market. as a business and what they do will be ok and i see a rosy history ahead in this space as others state revenue, money is the biggest need to share at the moment

ive gone for around 70% cash, its fair amount and i'm talking my whole portfolio. the units ive started the process of selling pay out income in may as they have just gone ex divi, this means i'll still get some income in the next months even though there now sold as i don't wish to go holding any further than 5 ish months into the year.

appreciate this may all sound dramatic and why would you when some businesses are sharing record profit. this isnt about apple, this is about debt and equities overall

i follow a guy called David Hunter @ DaveHContrarian and he is exactly that. everyone of course follows many different people and uses many different ways to guide their decisions and this guy works for me.

he looks at the bigger picture, overall economics, dynamics global which i don't do and find hard to understand. so whereas like yourself i understand actual companies that isn't what's at play at the moment. the market cant keep going, iron ore can be so high and one company doing so well but people have one foot in and one foot out now because the market is seeing inflation, high debt, leveraged positions, and all time highs.

belief is its a financial crash not an overall slump in everything, inflation wont be control, debt will create a financial crash, last for 9 months ish and then off we go again but never reaching back the current highs. we will then see higher interest rates, higher inflation, bull run on commodities and similar to where we are now. he has gold at $10,000+ and silver at $300+

we all have our ways and beliefs, i'm happy and have the time to sit out six months and if it even plays out with a 20% drop ive gained big time, if not it will come just when

The economics are unsustainable. Government will try and inflate debt away because people don’t understand it but as soon as it rises, interest rates, pull the extra money going in, try and cool the economy it will go bang.

The silver but is another play on investments whether for now, twenty years, tax free inheritance. Just though open portfolio to a few oz.

The drop isn’t because companies like fxpo aren’t good and iron ore prices won’t continue to increase. The equity drop connected to derivatives based on inflation and the bank, markets so leveraged that at some point it has to unwind. This is a view, it’s based on technicals, inflation now rising far more than highlighted and a drop for a year with a then continued super cycle like we feel we have now.

The economics are sustainable, all time highs, so much debt

Whether the above comes true, no different to buying a high risk share I’m willing to hold cash for twelve months to play this risk, choice out, just another option in increasing capital by not loosing it also.

With all time highs I don’t think unless you trade very well there’s much upside now left, so I’m out the door, most make the mistake of trying to judge this to the second for the little extra % increase, I don’t think it’s worth it.

The fed has said inflation is transitional, many believe that’s rubbish and it’s going one way out of control. Let’s see, their pumping the economy and think they can control it. After lockdown there certainly aren’t many discounts around, everything is new, full prices. The fundamental of fxpo is clear, it’s whether as economics go the equity market will unwind with derivatives at the top hardly helping,

I’ve bought the silver, I’ve put 40% in cash, I’ll cover gains with income divis and some shares hopefully with growth and weight it out. Like the gain is huge through share growth it’s also huge through share declines if your not in them. 2022 it will all settle, take off again and I’ll be fully loaded after the next correction.

I won’t take it all out but even if I hold 30% in cash, we see an equity drop 60% with less chance of returning to all time highs that cash will buy in and push the portfolio further. In the background cheeky bit of silver just in case it has its day!

Nice update, thanks for that.

I’ve diversified as I’ve achieved a retirement pot in the last 16 months that ironically now I can take less risk upon and build steady for the future. I’m not taking everything out but going steady in %s in stocks and income. I’ve built a good pot now, it’s actually as hard to keep hold of it but you have to watch the human nature of being greedy and pushing for more which of course leads to less.

Steady as she goes, got an amount and time on my hands to take it steady, understand next steps. I’m of the opinion, crash soon, very low, very quick and likewise the recovery. Materials up afterwards, commodity super cycle after crash and we go from there. Inflation is up but hiding, they won’t manage it

fed reports at 14.00hrs today so the markets arent really doing a lot and i'm sure that inflation is going to be in there as to whether there is an acceptance its coming and what will change.

i'm on the side that this is all going to unwind in the next few months, equity sell off before we then have a commodity, materials based run for the next few years. its all top heavy, too wound up with government pumping so much in its going to pop soon. i'm actually taking this seriously and going to cash for the next six months. whilst i may have gained that little more in the next few months by staying in as the markets hits highs this is nothing against the potential loss when it goes pop so i'll happily sit it out and await the bottom and next ride.

bought more silver than ive ever owned, in fact never had any until a few months ago and now invested a few quid for the future and that play. ive sold some of my fxpo, made 6% in the last ten days so its now sat, i have a few more so i'll let this play out for the highs in next few weeks and then leave very quickly.

next 6 to 9 months will be very interesting, correction in the markets, governments not sure what to do, raise rates but pumping money in, inflation then deflation, which affect EPS.

Inflation is coming

Mine makes up now 3% of portfolio. Gone for value overall over growth, income over growth, but of silver along the way. I’m battening down the hatches for the complete and utter huge retrace in the next six months. I’ll take less growth to preserve total cash, I’m reinvesting income and will continue to average down when the markets drop.

No one knows exactly well but stimulus is coming to and end and with that comes change!

lucky, i think you should put your 250k back in and go for it, this has £7 written all over it!!! i'm sticking to my small slice back in, plenty to watch and hopefully see £5 pretty soon. all good to see.

Whatever investment views, whatever selling or buying based on our own decisions.

Our views on putin are also our own and in my opinion he’s certainly a bad man, if your Russian well he has a little bit more of your countries money than you!! Killed many Russians and treats everyone like fifth class citizens. My point doesn’t imply talking from a country of strength, point is Russia is in a dire strait which even Russians think and if they don’t that because their not allowed too,

Just a question of time, always was going to be.

Production wise the business doesn’t seem to get a great deal wrong and even if the volumes this year are around 12 million they’ll make a fortune. When Jim north has put some more of his own cash in then he must see the good times ahead. The sp seems to be pretty chilled at going higher, talked of some consolidation these last few weeks but not in the case of fxpo. Quick race past £5 I think now, may even announce another divi before this next one is paid, six a year all at least double 2020.

In reflection still glad I sold and changed down the % holding. May seem easy to make cash in this case but so easily is it all lost. I’ve consolidated myself, taken much out, some back in on Friday and happy with the balance and current risk now. Gla

David Hunter Twitter

Materials have had their correction & are poised to resume their run to the upside.Steel,copper & other material stocks ready to run again. PM miners poised for big run. Tech,including FAANG & semis,ready to resume big run as well. Stock market poised to resume parabolic melt-up.

i was trying to bring a bit of drama to the party!!