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Stas20 - my thoughts exactly. With this volume and at this SP it can only be Bondholders.
Where is the Bond conversion RNS and/or the Conversion Payment RNS followed by the TR1.
Why Bondholders are selling at this price is anyones guess.
My guess would be that at this VWAP they are selling and buying under another entity (transfer of shares on market).
No Gamble - i think most of us are scratching our heads.
105m shares traded yesterday, 8.75m today to date and yet no:-
1. Conversion RNS
2 Conversion Payment RNS
3. Holding RNS
Someone is providing the mm's with an unlimited supply of shares at or below this level.
Todays RNS is good news and is a direct result of the commitment imposed on COPL by the Bondholder as detailed in the RNS on 20/03/23:-
G&A Cost Reduction Commitments
On the back of this Convertible Financing, COPL management have committed to using all commercially reasonable efforts to achieve annualised G&A reductions of US$2.5 million, of which at least US$1.0 million shall be actioned by the end of Q2 (June 2023), with the balance of the target to follow, pending continual board level review
The Bondholder has forced the saving on Copl and hopefully some of the remaining saving of $1m will be a reduction in the CEO and CFO salaries to reflect the size of the Company.
Further savings are expected up to $2,5m
This is something that Copl and in particular the CFO should have instigated some time ago.
Finally an adult is in charge of the finances.
Eazy - yes i have. Unfortunately i posted in October and again in December that i thought COPL had turned a corner and if you look at my posts you will see that i was forecasting an SP in excess of 70p. I do not want to jinx it again.
However as i am sat here in the garden drinking beer i will say that they do finally look like they have turned the corner.
The upside is substantial as you and Tiburn have eloquently stated on numerous times.
There is a downside though and that is the number of shares that this CEO and CFO keep issuing via Convertible Bonds - it has to stop otherwise any upside will be offset by the share count as DougB detailed earlier.
Seasider - you do realise that if COPL are bought out for £250m then that will equate to an SP of approximately 20p once you have factored in the Bond conversions, Bond Payment amount, warrants, options and SCF repayment including the bonus 8% of shares that they are entitled to.
Vote no to consolidation as it would only lead to unfettered dilution by this CEO and CFO.
The Special Resolution can be defeated as demonstrated by the shareholders of SENX at their AGM on Thursday when they voted down 2 Special Resolutions that had been proposed by the BoD.
Guys lets be clear it is not the shorters, traders or derampers that have caused the SP to be at 5p.
It is the actions of the CEO and CFO who are driving COPL, the shorters have just been along for the ride and made alot of money from them actions.
The reason the SP is where it is is due to, amongst other things:-
1. Audit Going Concern status - the BoD did not have the financial acumen to ensure that COPL had the correct funds for the next 12 months.
2. Defaults on the SCF which has cost money and increased the shares alloted to the SCF to 8%
3. The issue of Convertible Bonds which act as an anchor to the SP due to the potential number of shares that could be issued ( potential for at least 1.2B shares to be in issue eventually)
It is no coincidence that the SP is near to the price that the Bondholders can convert at no loss to their initial investment but still make money on the conversion price and 13% 'make whole' interest. That price is 6.75p x 0.78 = 5.26p.
The market needs to see actions not words on the following:-
1. Increased production - over the last 12 months it has fallen
2. Evidence of the recovery rate of the 1b barrels of OIP.
3. Completion of a JV - this should be the icing on the cake and not the saviour of the Company,
The CEO and CFO need to concentrate on the above to ensure the SP starts to move up rather than rely on enticing USA investors by a share consolidation.
It appears to me that the CEO needs to be reminded that Increased production leads to increased SP.
I remember reading some time ago a post that said that with 1B barrels of OIP that COPL could not fail despite the CEO - i truly hope so as i am £38k down at present.
Rant over.
We were told that we would get a 'full' operations update at the end of March.
I think that most reasonable people would agree that what we got this morning (in April!) was not a 'full ' Op's Update and that it was totally underwhelming.
At the very least COPL could have advised what the March production figures were expected to be and what production we exited March and the quarter at.
Instead we are left speculating, yet again, based on what was said by a person at a flaring hearing.
I do despair sometimes at COPL's lack of opportunity at grasping positive PR.
The RBL and JV will happen when they happen but production rates are the here and now.
Rant over.
Good Post LLP - thanks for sharing your calculations.
The key to shareholder value besides increasing production is your statement -
We have a (conservative) ~1bn barrels @ 20% recovery= 200m barrels @ $6 = $1.2bn = ~£1bn / ~1200m shares = ~83p/share (probably reduce a bit for Senior debt).
What we all need to know is what is the recovery rate on the 1B barrels - 1% or 100%.
The RS report held by COPL may have told us or indicated the recovery rate.
In the absence of the RS Report we have to wait for the JV discussions to conclude to see what value our JVP puts on the discovery.
Thank you all for your comments.
There were some great points raised.
I agree that the conversion payment is variable dependant on the SP at the time of conversion.
However i would add that this will be offset by the increased 'make whole' interest calculation due to the extended bond period.
I think that we are all in agreement that there will eventually be between 1B and 1.2B shares in issue.
Roll on the RBL when we will become less dependant on the Bondholders.
As an aside the 38m barrel of reserves at £5 gives a market cap of £190m but COPL must prove that they can get it out of the ground and make a profit before it is recognised.