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Alfreso - spot on.
COPL need $1m+ to maintain the liquidity covenant.
A Funder will need to be convinced that production is rising to show that the funds can/will be repaid in future.
All about that inclining production curve that has been promised for so long but is currently illusive.
Silence from the BoD is disgraceful.
Production has always been the key to COPL success.
Given the current situation why have they not advised the shareholders of Novembers production and the current production to enable us to make an informed decision on whether to hold or sell.
The SL (Summit) and Anavio will know so why not advise the Shareholders.
Tiburn - lets disagree on the reason for the JV termination.
With regards to SL default notice it would be reasonable to assume that we have/will fall short of the $1.5m SL requirement, which can only be because production has not increased as expected to fund COPL until the end of Q124 and maintain the $1.5m.
I truly hope that a funder can be found without having to resort to more Convertible Bonds.
Tiburn - we do not know why the JV was terminated but we do know from previous RNS's that the Cole Creek reservoir exhibited the same characteristics as BFSU. It seems a coincidence that the JV is terminated and SL issues a default notice at the same time as the we are all awaiting production information - and still waiting.
The only way that COPLA will survive is if they can convince a lender that the illusive inclining production curve can be achieved and within a short period of time.
If Art had any morals and he truly believed in COPLA achieving the inclining production curve he could provide a bridging loan, at an extortionate rate probably, but lets see if they get further finance.
Tiburn - 'if the Prod is rising then then there is a chance.' It has always been about production and hitting that inclining production curve.
The JVP and the SL actions seem to suggest that production is not rising at this time.
Guys - the SEDI filings are just a catch up of the Bonds converted and sold in November by Anavio together with the 126m share placing at 2.6p that Anavio sold for 2.7p. It has already been declared and notified in previous RNS's. They are not recent conversions.
Tradevol - The $200k Bonds cost the Bondholders $160k. They can convert at 2.6p which if they convert and then sell at 0.7p they will get circa £44k. They are then entitled to a Conversion Payment of $200k for a 2027 Bond and $250k for a 2028 Bond which is converted at the 5 day lowest VWAP. In effect the BH's will get $244k or $294k for their outlay of $160k even at this low level.
Tiburn - the going concern issue has not been addressed.
We have funding until the end of Q1/24 and not for the next 12 months, hence still a going concern issue.
We probably have around £2,5m cash at present.
Production has to increase or further funding is required.
I also bought in for the increased production.
Various posters keep stating that the GGS is working. That may be the case with gas gathering but is the oil coming out of the ground with the gas?.
I am not an oil man so I would like confirmation on this point.
I am concerned that we have not had a production update for November and confirmation of current production. given that production is now the saviour of the company.
The BoD should be advising the market as soon as possible if production is rising.
Unfortunately their silence is telling on this matter.
Good point Zengas as i was wondering why the change of language.
On 29/09/23 SAVE stated 'now intends to publish an AIM Admission Document in respect of the PETRONAS Acquisition on or before 15 December 2023, following such point the Company will seek restoration to trading on AIM of its ordinary shares.'
Now they state 'a further extension to the Company's cancellation date has been granted to 1 February 2024.'
We can read it that an AD will not be published on the 15th (tomorrow), but we should not have to interpret it - it should be clearly stated.
It is so frustrating being a shareholder in COPL.
The SP is sliding backwards because the market is awaiting news on a production increase.
The market works on the principle that 'if its good news get it out as soon as possible'. The previous CEO did not subscribe to that principle, albeit there was little if any good news under his stewardship, I had hoped that the new CEO would change that stance.
Copl know the November production figures now, which I hope show a marginal improvement on October production. They also know the December production figures up to 11/12/23, which hopefully show a marked improvement on November production, therefore why not disclose the figures now asap and stop the slide in SP.
If Copl then need up to 31/12/23 to correlate the relationship between pressure and production to issue 2024 production guidance then so be it.
Silence is not golden in this instance.
Reading the posts over the last week or so was like being back in the school playground with posters resorting to name calling rather than discussing the pro's and con's of Copl.
Reading the posts this morning was like reading the script of a Pantomime play with the GGS as the topic - yes it will work, no it won't, yes it will etc etc.
The truth of the matter is that we are all waiting for Copl to advise if daily production is increasing in practice as the theory would dictate.
Until that time the market makers and bondholders will play with the SP as suits them best.
An increase in the SP has always been dependant on Copl jumping onto that inclining production curve that was promised so long ago.
A JV if it happens should be the icing on the cake and not the saviour of the Company.
I understand from previous RNS's that the reservoir characteristics of Cole Creak are similar to the reservoir characteristics displayed at BFSU, therefore once BFSU EOR is proven by an inclining curve then that may enable the JV to be signed.
All in my humble opinion of course.
There was an EWN posted on Sedar today that confirms that Anavio were the Bondholders who converted the 15 Bonds in November. They then sold the shares into the market at 1.81p and 1.74p.
That is a bit concerning to me given that we are supposed to be near to an increase in production, a JV and an SP rerate.
I guess they could just be doing their risk management and limiting their exposure prior to year end given that they still have potentially 46% of the Company if they converted the remaining Bonds and exercised the warrants.
Seahawk - A JV does not yet exist. The Confidential wells are in BFFDU which is 85% COPL working interest and 15% CNOOC w.i. The JV at present is for Cole Creek. Maybe in the future once CC is proven up it may be included in a buy out of both areas.
Leew - IMO the 2 confidential wells have not been drilled. If they had been drilled then it would have to be declared to the market as a material event. A NDA does not trump stock market rules in any instance. COPL cannot stop disclosure of the revenue in its accounts as a matter of international accounting rules. The drilling of the wells was a Chinese rumour that has materialised into fact.
For the record the confidential wells are in BFFDU and not Cole Creek.
I am all for being positive about your own investment but lets all keep it real and not fictional.
Bolton - the Management Discussion & Analysis document (MD&A) is issued by COPL each quarter with the results.
It will be published on Sedar ( www.sedarplus.ca ) around 15/11/23 with the Q3 Results.
The Q3 results will not be pretty, hence the $4m placing, however that is done and we move on.
What will be of interest is the forward looking statement and the proposed Q&A.