RE: Flogging a dead horse?2 Oct 2020 17:25
Bismarck
I'm certainly no expert but here's my situation and approach (feedback welcome)
- Bought quite a bit in the 15.90 -18 range before the short attack. Didn't get out fast enough and I was sitting on a 60 - 70% loss
- Having spent quite a bit of time (between jobs) reading everything I could about the business, and seeing the Directors buying a lot, and that they predicted that 2020 revenue would be quite a bit higher due to delayed receipts, and there are good long term growth prospects in the industry, and governance has improved, I decided to buy in again around the 5.00 - 6.00 range, but this time I bought in my wife's ISA (so not averaging down my holding with the big loss)
- This allows me to sell them if I think they have reached a short term peak (like yesterday, when my stop loss was triggered at 6.92) and / or there is some sort of issue, without getting tied up with the larger loss in my ISA
- The gain I made on these was within a few thousand £ of the loss I was sitting on so I am slowly averaging myself back into a neutral position overall but I think this approach gives me more flexibility given the uncertainty on the broader global economy, and US election, and sometimes panic stricken market
- I bought in again today in 2 tranches and will probably buy a few more as I think mid 8.00 - 9.00 is possible as we head towards the end of the year and we get more potential investors, and more returns on historic cases.
- Long term, I do expect to see a return to mid double digit share prices - as I think the basic business model supports that and arguably legal cases are getting more complex and more expensive, giving rise to more funding be needed
- However, whilst I think BUR has good long term potential, I'm now less willing to sit back and ride out multiyear cycles on any of my stocks, preferring to take profits when I think the s/p has peaked or Mr Market is being v generous. I can always buy in again, (thus missing out on a few gains and a paying a bit more commission) but I can't go back in time and get the previous high price on offer. Not doing this has cost me a lot of money over the years when shares peaked and then dropped below my purchase price (when I wasn't paying attention) and has never recovered...and I've now sitting on 50 - 60% losses on some shares with little signs of recovery.
Personally, I wouldn't sell now just to rebalance. US listing is only 17 days away....that could well trigger a 10 - 15% increase alone as US investors get onboard. The business also appears to have positive momentum in terms of performance now as well.