Member Info for UMNS

My guess....General market sell off due to various concerns (travel issues, virus, china tension etc etc) and an "The Equity Development Investor Webinar" taking place at 2.45pm on Thursday 25th March might have led to some additional sales, and they've also had a good run of late, so perhaps some profit taking given both previous points.

I assume once they get to a certain % down on the day stop losses are triggered adding to the downward pressure.

Must admit it's disappointing ....recently bought quite a lot more, but I'm a long investor and I expect the share price will increase again in the coming weeks and months as I think the long term performance looks strong .

The other factor to consider is availability - it's a very small cap business and some days volumes are very low. There have been times when I've not been able to get an order fulfilled for several days at time.

So, yes in some respects I wish I'd banked a large profit when they hit circa 8p but if that initial drop then led to a bounce when I wasn't watching, I could be out of the market for days, unable to buy back in and losing out on a possible run that cost me a lot of lost profit.

Given what I've read, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume this business can double it's current market cap, so very crudely get to a 10 - 12p share price.

But in 5 years time, could they be a £250m market cap company? If the revenues build then eventually the market cap will follow and I don't see it as an unreasonable target to hope for.

They've got the IP protection, revenue model (reoccurring orders from major corporates, which we can see are increasing quickly), and previous R&D work behind them. We've also got v large players like CRODA who already know about them.

I'd love for these to hit 20 - 50p in a matter of weeks, but realistically building a good business takes years, and their market has long lead times for downstream product formulations to change. So, I'll watch with interest and patience.

This reminds me when I bought Ashtead (AHT) at about £3.33 maybe 10 years ago. They hit £38 recently. Lets hope ITX is a similar story of growth.

Sharepricer - I've bought quite a few shares from 1.8p through the 4pence range, a few in the 6's and in the 7's when I was getting greedy.

Not too bothered (other than opportunity cost on the funds) about the current share price as the 1.5m shares I hold should be worth a fair bit more when we've a couple of years of results in

Ref. capacity - I recall a comment that the factory can accommodate a doubling in output before further investment is needed

Thanks AJP08

It partially offsets the much larger one at 7.5p! I was getting greedy and looking for a quick buck on another tranche of cash in my other ISA (I manage mine and my wife's) and got into a work call, only to return to a significant drop. However, I've a big stake (for me at least - over 2m shares now I think) and I'm long given the fundamentals

Managed to get GBP3k top up after quite a long wait

Can't buy a small amount this pm

Bradley
I'm in for the long term and whilst I'm annoyed at myself for getting greedy and buying quite a lot in the 7p range (having bought a lot from 1.8 - 4p earlier), I'm expecting this to get to 10 - 15p over the long term, so the annoyance is at a loss of potential profit, rather than an expected loss of capital.

Likewise - managed a buy this am with no issues

Happydays2020 - I've the same issue and missed out on buying more around the 4p level as when I was trying in between work calls I wasn't getting anything. Fill or kill orders were also closing out unfilled.

I kept trying though and ended up getting some at 4p and a fraction over 6p and I've got a decent holding now. Trying to balance maximising my potential gain vs. having all my eggs in 1 basket just in case the worse case scenario develops.

Hope you manage to pick some up eventually

Thanks for the tip off. Nothing on HL's website yet so I'll check out the RNS list

Agreed.

After being burnt many times by not selling during a spike, and then waiting years in some cases for any upside, I am more cautious now, and I have sold out following spikes in other companies. E.g. 3D systems turned positive again for me again yesterday after many years of being negative. I missed the huge ramp up in the past (based on nothing but hype) and with it being a v small stake it wasn't worth selling.

However, with ITX I think the fundamental cash generation opportunity is such that I do believe the future share price will be higher even if there are some drops along the way.

Whilst it's very hard, and I'm certainly no expert, I try to decide if a spike is being driven by genuine improvement in the company performance over the long term, or the "greater fool will be a long in a minute" style spike where people are only buying because the share price is going up.

Not able to buy this morning via Hargreaves L - ended up placing a fill or kill order

Quite a day! After a tip off on one these boards and a couple of days of full time research I bought ITX a few months ago and I've added to my position along the way.

Exciting times ahead I thought, not knowing they would arrive sooner than expected. I expect there will be big drops in the future (maybe when the results are out?), but the fundamentals do look strong long term so as long as they remain strong I'll see where this ones goes in the years to come.

chilting

Of course! It's a timing thing. The figures will not include this current cash balance.

Thanks

Rivaldo - I might be reading the accounts incorrectly, but don't they have just $458k in cash at the end of June 2020?

- They made a loss of $704k in the period
- They have $290k in due receivables (but they will always have some, so unless they significantly improve their payment terms and / or their ability to pull in the cash more quickly, I'm assuming receivables won't have a material impact on cash flow in the next period)
- They have 458k in cash

So, they need profitability to continue to improve in H2, to fund another 6 months.

Revenue and profitability ARE improving, so I'm not overly concerned. However, the next 6 months could be challenging in terms of cash flow management.

Hargreaves has "frozen" the BUR holding and a price isn't shown at all - just what I have invested so I had a surprise when I logged in this morning and saw my headline ISA total was a lot lower than expected :-)

I'm sure it will all get sorted out. I think this is a good long term hold, so today is just a small step on that journey

Yes, its a shame that information, and the helpful broker recommendation graphic has gone as well.

Thanks for sharing Bazzaman. Useful article. Recently came across the KETL and I've bought a small stake. I plan to add if / when market sentiment is generally low.

MattTheBrave

I first bought into AHT at 333p and have added to my position over the years, with a few shorter term trades along the way. My holding is now over 40% of my ISA (given I've had a few other companies in my ISA hit hard by Covid) and I agree that there appears to be a growing disconnect between the share price and results, so I've been selling down my position when Mr Market serves up a good price on the day (e.g. today, when I sold a small %).

I'm going to retain a fair bit of my holding as we could see £30 or more given the broker forecasts and momentum, but I'm seeing more risk at the moment. The share price could well take a hit near or after the US election so I've got that on my radar - the business may not change it's performance....I'm more concerned with investors taking a risk off approach for a while until the dust settles, and thus the recent momentum could reverse for a while.

I agree that the dividend does mitigate that risk a little, with relatively few companies paying a solid and rising dividend, but even now we are possibly getting to the point where the s/p is at the point when the yield starts to become less attractive.