Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Looks like 5G are active re 2 x 29,000. Be interesting to see if the ENET web site is updated, but 5G have no obligation to declare till they go under 5%, so I’m not expecting to see any change. Good news is that that indicates liquidity is coming back, bad news is they’ve got a further c 4.75m on my calculations to go. Still, some decent newsflow could make good inroads into that.
Conor Maguire Value Situations
10th January
PANR
While I originally wrote about PANR as a quick idea, I have spent considerable further time on it and most recently provided an updated valuation analysis last month following its completion of a $96m fundraise. PANR is the best performer to date among my published ideas, up 28% at 31 December from when I first wrote about it (and up ~35% as at the time of writing this). The market has rightly shrugged off the minimally dilutive impact of the recent fundraise and the company is now progressing its 2022 drilling programme with a fully funded balance sheet.
Indeed I believe PANR is fully funded to an eventual sale to an oil major within the next two years, meaning further dilution or capital requirements are highly unlikely. This position combined with its enormous, world class oil resource of close to 20 billion BO provides very substantial downside protection, while the upside is extreme even under conservative assumptions around recovery rates and oil pricing - PANR is a ~5x opportunity based on my analysis, with limited downside given its resource asset backing.
On this basis I see no change to my original thesis and following the fundraise de-risking PANR’s balance sheet, I am upgrading PANR to a high conviction idea for 2022.
Agree with that skid.
What I would also say is that ENET have almost reinvented themselves in terms of products and business model such that the opportunity now is many many times greater than when you first invested and certainly a lot more attractive than my first buys a modest 15 months ago or so.
We need the confirmation news flow and I’m sure it will be coming in the not too distant future.
After the disappointing last minute downwards adjustment to already downward adjusted figures last month the shares are sorely in need of a pick me up.
Certainly the PA interview contained many positives. The jobs vacant list indicates a company that is booming. We need to see this reflected in the newsflow.
This quarter ENET will also need to set market expectations as to what they can reasonably achieve this year. Under promise and over deliver is a good mantra and one ENET would do well to follow. I accept the difficulties of forecasting with so many moving parts, but, nevertheless, that is what they must do. No more ‘own goals’, slip ups, unexpected fund raises please ENET, we need solid delivery, no more delays or excuses. My patience is not limitless but I remain a firm supporter.
Yes, I also understand the disappointment, the guys need to cut out what I view as ‘own goals’.
Yes,outside forces etc but warning in revenues with 17 days to go before year end ain’t clever.
They need to up their IR game, esp if they want to bring those warrants in H1 2022.
imv.
Bid, and not a lot more than £25m, why do you feel there’s a lot of hope baked into that?
-cash in bank-good job they did that fund raise!
-critical components secured for 2022
-numerous contracts underway and expected to grow ‘exponential’.
That sounds a lot for c £25m, imo!
atb
uhlf
ETH
I agree the history of ENET is littered with ‘misses’.
That is one reason why the shares where 12p last year and why the market cap is just over £25m now.
They need to demonstrate they can get a grip on things , be clear about what expectations are and deliver. Two misses in the last 4 months is pretty inexcusable.
Show us the beef!
ETH
Well, DL in the interview explained they had got the critical components for orders next year plus extra for anticipated orders. Sensible action. Revenues expected to go ‘exponential’ was the term I believed DL used.
Listen to the interview and make your own mind up.
Think it’s a combination of things
Weak markets, esp in small caps/AIM
At 80p m. Cap was c £100m, need a lot of good news to support that valuation.
Psoriasis launch seemed a bit of an anti climax and non appearance of Q4 Croda ‘beauty parade’ hasn’t helped.
£50m m.cap is probably high enough until we get further news on both fronts
All imo.
Positive thinking bid!
ENET need to come out and say what the expectations for 2022 and 2023 are. There are no valid , current forecasts. The best way would be via a brokers note. The update was all well and good, but no timelines were attached to the various orders, by and large.So investors are left wondering when things really kick off and by how much.
I understand this is under active consideration at ENET hq.
AS
Many thanks for the reply, much appreciated.
That strikes a chord and sounds very likely.
Would I be correct in thinking that info came via Elrico and possibly one of his interviews with SA, as I can find no ‘official ‘ reference to it.
It doesn’t matter too much, although it would be good to know wrt Croda as 2022 draws into focus what will happen when, in broad terms like H1, H2 etc.
I think the Croda deal could be fantastic for SBTX, CRDA are a good company, I know as I used to work for them, albeit some years ago.
atb
From the AR, this seems clear enough to me:
‘With the Croda/Sederma partnership, the focus for 2022 will be to confirm the cosmetic claims for the SkinBiotix(R) technology as a cosmetic active ingredient and generate traction with Sederma's key clients, with the aim of future potential revenue streams for SkinBioTherapeutics.’
So 2022 to ‘generate traction with Sederma’s key clients’.
This Q4 ‘beauty parade’ seems like a bit of wishful thinking.
I’m pleased they’ve been deliberately vague with ‘2022’ as these things tend to move backwards all the time. That’s no criticism, just acceptance of the way these things usually are.
Hmmm, seems no one wants to answer re the Q4 ‘beauty parade’
Well, it don’t look like it’s going to happen anyway.
Overall, prospects here look excellent albeit the short term sp weakness may continue until there is some clarity on Croda and some numbers to pin on the biotics side.
The only thing I can see is the expectation for this Q4 beauty parade re Croda.
I’m trying to understand where it came from.
So far, only thing I can find is from Elrico, presumably he got it from SA in an interview. But was it ever ‘official’
I suspect not.
I don’t actually think it matters that much, delays in this sort of thing are the norm. But it could be a reason for the sp weakness.