Member Info for Ufufuo

Wouldn’t be surprised to see some AAOG money coming back in here following their RNS this morning

Looks like a very positive update. Has the company provided estimated revenues when at plateau in Q1? Would be interesting to compare to current MCAP

Yes, fair point. I’ve a decent sum of money in here though, so it would be appreciated if the JV partners could be a bit more coordinated- or at least have their spat behind closed doors. It doesn’t reflect well. It’s not a village fete they’re organising.

Anyway, rant over. Back to focusing on the incoming licenses, the long anticipated drilling of CH1 and early production system implementation for significant revenues to come on stream, potentially by the end of 2020

Oh! Yes. Sorry. Totally slipped my mind! Ooopsie

Last operating committee meeting must have been a big session down the local boozer as Solo don’t seem to have any recollection!!?

You sure Max. Even Solo didn’t know about the last one!!

it Must be a sign! RNS filed for release on Monday! ;-)

What price for a buyout grsshaw? ;-)

After the license is granted of course.

The next 12 months looks extremely interesting. As mather says, I imagine they are building the access road to the well site to make it so they are not as weather dependent for bringing large equipment to site. Today’s RNS says they plan to spend $40m in 2020. If you look back at the Jan 2019 EGM presentation this should mean we are doing the following in the next 12 months:
$15m drill and test Chikumbi 1
$6m 3D siesmics

So that takes us to about $21m. Then the early production system (including pipeline to Madimba Gas Plant) was estimated at $3m if TPDC build the pipeline (taking total spend to $24m), or $25.5m if ARA and partners build it (taking total spend to $46.5m).

So that means the rest of the cash for 2020 will probably be spent in line with one of the following options:

OPTION 1 – drill and test CH1, remediate NT1 and NT2, complete siesmics and TPDC build the pipeline to Madimba. Leaving $16m of the planned spend for 2020 unaccounted for and I would guess that would be likely to be spent on another drill in 2020. We are also likely to be producing a tonne of gas by the end of 2020.

OPTION 2 – same as above for CH1 and siesmics etc but the JV partners build the pipeline. This would mean there wouldn’t be more drilling next year beyond CH1 but we’d probably end the year producing a shed load of gas and earning a considerably higher price than for Option 1 as we built the pipeline.

Other than that, I think it is good that the Board level shake up continues. The RNS shows that the overall plan remains unchanged and the license and farmout is almost certainly case of WHEN not IF. Also good to see mention of the application for a 3-year extension for Nyuni.

With all of that said, it is true that the news I really wanted to see this morning was the granting of that license. So, I am frustrated at how long that is taking. In truth, I really thought 2019 would be our year. That was not the case. I do think our patience will be very well rewarded in the end though.

All the best

Solo late 2016 about 0.25p to over 0.8p. Aminex in same period just below 2p to over 7p. So both rose a little over 3 times. So “comparable gains” as I said. We could argue the toss about exact price points but then that would be missing the point ;-)

I stated “Obviously back then Kiliwani was still producing and so we are now weaker in that regard”

As though making a new point, you then point out “BUT we no longer have KN1”?

I do agree with your point about the effect on share price of time between events. Once we have the licence and with operations for Ruvuma in the hands of the well capitalised Omanis, there is reason to be optimistic in that regard.

Off to bed, so good night. Hopefully another blue day tomorrow :-)

Absolutely vike. Although this time I think we should rise to much greater and more sustainable highs than that time around. Back at the end 2017, before it was announced that the rig was on site for NT2, the share price in a similar place to where it is now. The share price rose to more than 7p during that drill. Two years of complete inactivity whilst Tanzania gets its house in order has seen the share price drift down to a mere fraction of what it was.

The NT2 rise was obviously driven by the fact the drill could start to prove basin model for Ruvuma and the fact that it was planned to be back to back with Ntorya 3 (now Chikumbi 1)...and the associated hype.

NT2 was a huge success (fixable damage related flow rates aside), resulting in a 12-fold increase in resource estimates over the 2015 CPR. So, this time we start our assault on new sp highs with that in our pocket. Obviously back then Kiliwani was still producing and so we are now weaker in that regard. Also, we now own less of Ruvuma...but holding 25% didn’t stop Solo achieving comparable gains to us the last time around.

So, from a similar sp starting point, we now have the prospect of:
1. The license being granted and completion of the farmout with the balance of $5m paid to Aminex
2. Chikumbi 1 spud date
3. Chikumbi 1 results
4. Tax dispute resolved. $3m net to Aminex
5. KN1 potential remediation and resumption of limited production. 6MMcf/d? Perforation of lower zone to potentially considerably increase production and longevity
6. Kiliwani South drill spud date
7. NT1, NT2 and CH1 connection to Madimba gas processing plant to establish early production system with min gross production of 40MMcf/d. The start of significant revenues. The rumour is that we should be able to produce at much higher rates.
8. 200sq km of 3D seismics over Ntorya development area, plus further 75sq km 3D seismics over Kiliwani and Nyuni. Imagine the CPR after that!
9. Kiliwani South drill
10. Likely 5-well field development programme

With the licence granted and Aminex comparatively flush with cash, we could see all of this happen in the next 12 to 18 months.

CH1 is now MUCH bigger and is dual target - when compared to NT3 as it was. With that in mind and the potential for OIL and a fully carried forward plan for Ruvuma (last time around, we had NT2 to look forward to but not the extensive forward plan we have now), not to mention the ever improving demand picture, there is every reason to believe that we will reach and then drive on through the share price highs of NT2.

10p party? Only for the very impatient ;-)

What price do you guys think we will hit when drilling Chikumbi 1? At the first target and then just before results for the potentially oil bearing Jurassic target?

Pleased to share a very encouraging article which updates on 3 new gas fired power plants being built in Tanzania. Very significant for us Aminex investors (article translated).
“In ensuring that Mtwara Region has a reliable supply of electricity at all times, Deputy Minister of Energy, explained to the region's business and investors that the Government is in the process of building two new power plants.

He said this, September 25, 2019 when he addressed the development stakeholders' concerns at a meeting aimed at listening to the challenges of traders and investors in Mtwara Region, where he said the Government was aware of all the electricity challenges that arise in the region and are already being worked out.

"The Mtwara power station is more than 10 years old, here I am talking about just two new plants, and the demand for electricity in the Mtwara and Lindi region has increased, since it is now worth approximately 17.7 megawatts when the capacity is at Mtwara is 18 megawatts so we are working to add new plants.

He explained, the Government through the Tanzania Electricity Corporation (TANESCO), in this financial year has allocated a budget to purchase two power plants that will support reliable electricity supply.

While Somangafungu is also planning to build a 240 megawatts generator with gas and the transit system from Somangafungu to Kinyerezi, both routes will have 400 kV and we expect to implement this project between 21/23 year”

Here’s the article: https://ccmchama.blogspot.com/2019/09/serikali-mbioni-kujenga-mitambo-mipya.html?m=1

+ 1 Robbie. Thanks

Oh give it a rest Max

Hi ivans

The RNS says “"We are encouraged by the ongoing discussions with the Tanzanian authorities to be able to accelerate the planning for the early spud of the Chikumbi-1 well, through the tendering of services, ordering of long lead items and securing a contract for a drilling rig.“

So, given that there are just over 3 months left in the year, I based upon that quote, spudding around Christmas time looks likely to me

A lot of good progress has been made here. Soon enough, this will rally. Patience will be rewarded imho

A nice nod to the production and revenue potential in the RNS:

“this excellent asset, which when on production will play an important role in meeting domestic demand for gas from the people and businesses of Tanzania and a possible international market through export arrangements with neighbouring countries”

Gas for export will be less politically sensitive than domestic. That is likely to help with pricing negotiations. The main thing however is that this alludes to the stonking rates of production and therefore revenue that they are expecting;-)

$3m in cash for Aminex. Preparations for Chikumbi 1 will now progress. Preparing for “early” spud date.

Looking forward to this company changing drill...decent chance of oil in the lower target. $105m development programme with no further cost to Aminex.

The good times they are a comin

“"We are encouraged by the ongoing discussions with the Tanzanian authorities to be able to accelerate the planning for the early spud of the Chikumbi-1 well”

Says it all!!!

Delighted. Absolutely delighted