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Since dry season ends in May when do people think the unofficial cut off for construction will be. I reckon they won't want to start construction 2 months before the end of the dry season so if this doesn't happen by end of Mar think the project will be delayed until Oct (again). Anyone with any other predictions, we've already lost 3 months out of the 8 months in the dry season already
LOL hoping 2024 but knowing Kefi it may be 2030. So sick of this share right now. Wouldn't be surprised if news landed, shares spiked up and then spiked right down again simply because everyone is looking for an exit
I'm predicting news will drop mid - late Jan when Xmas / New years is over and people have had time to clear the backlog on their desks. In true Kefi fashion it will probably be a everything is going smoothly and just some more admin needed before we sign off in Q1 i.e. another can kicked down the road. I was really hoping when the can got kicked from Oct to sometime in Q4 that would be it BUT such is the life of a Kefi investor
Anyone else with any other predictions. Also merry X-mas in advance for those that can be bothered to celebrate
I have a sneaky gut-wrenching feeling that you may be right with these timelines although I really hope you aren't especially considering the following extracts from the RNS dated 5 October "Tulu Kapi Update"
"This is the last of many special permissions and policy changes agreed with the Ethiopian authorities over the years since KEFI assumed control of the Project, to allow modern project finance arrangements to be applied given there has been no industrial-scale mine development in Ethiopia for over 30 years. Tulu Kapi is now finally fully-permitted with only procedural administrative confirmations remaining."
" ... The Company expects full Project launch to commence in the current quarter as previously advised."
How long can administrative processes really take considering how much time has already been sunk into this project.
Extract from RNS titled "Final Tulu Kapi Umbrella Agreement Signed" dated 27 Apr 23
"All parties are working with Government to obtain the final required clearances and, in the meantime, preparing for full construction start to coincide with the next dry season at Tulu Kapi, which is expected to start in October 2023, having already prepared the community and procured the plant and equipment, with full production targeted to start in 2025."
I must add though that Harry seems to have a habit of kicking the can down the road without explicitly saying the can has been kicked down the road. So Oct 2023 appears to have become Q4 23 in recent RNS and I am worried that this may turn into before the end of the dry season if this is not signed before christmas... then before you know it Oct 2023 turns into Oct 2024 like it did last year
Strikes again.
No news in October. Fingers crossed we get this sorted before Christmas although I remember feeling the exact same thing this time last year. Trying to stay optimistic but with so many false dawns I find it harder each month to tell myself not to cut my losses and just move on
I noted that in the most recent accounts it was mentioned that more money would be needed by Q3 and Harry has a tendency to release news to pump the price before dumping a placing on us.
So step right up and place your bets (this is just a bit of fun by the way and I still hope we get news by October but like many here I'm frustrated with how many times the can has been kicked down the road and I am not 100% confident in the sign off given all the false dawns historically)
Y o u t u b e .com / watch?v=Atm8oTbbOao
FY results are due to be released this month so we should have a better understanding of how long the placing money should have but based on HY results the money should only last until around July UNLESS we get these contracts signed up and get the cash in. I knew the company needed money but sadly ignored the urge to sell as I thought they wouldn't need to raise because money was due to be received imminently.
Any estimations for when money will actually come in if everything is signed off this month. I really don't want to get caught in another placing. There have been so many already
Does anyone have any idea when in June the AGM will be taking place?
I noticed that bit in the RNS in Harry's comments so the 2 statements seem to imply different things BUT given Harry has been "optimistic" when it comes to timelines historically I personally would err on the side of caution and not assume this will be signed "imminently"
"The presentation also provides details of the c.US$390 million development financing (including the mining fleet and all other capital requirements) for the Tulu Kapi gold project in Ethiopia where last week the Tulu Kapi syndicate's two development banks visited Addis Ababa for the second time in the last month, to meet with the newly-appointed Ethiopian Minister of Mines, H.E Habtamu Tegegn, with whom it was jointly undertaken to quickly resolve any loose ends in respect of the final substantive conditions precedent ahead of expected signing within the next month or so of the Final Umbrella Agreement"
Hopeful this will get wrapped up within the next 6 months as they have stated "All parties are again targeting full construction start to coincide with the next dry season (October 2023), after having already prepared the community and procured the plant and equipment, with full production targeted to start in 2025."
Further to the above I am also reading that we are due for sign off in May not April otherwise it would say expected signing within THIS month BUT I am not sure the RNS in May will be the one we NEED as they mention "As with the initial Umbrella Agreement signed in June 2022, the Final Umbrella Agreement will set out all syndicate member roles and finance contributions and conditions precedent to final formal approval being granted."
In otherwords my interpretation is May for umbrella agreement signed and Final Approval some time between May and October (obviously I'm hoping final approval is made sooner rather than later)
Isn't the signing the last stage in unlocking our NPV though or is it just another step in a very long process
I would love it if there was a RNS before the end of this quarter (could really use the money right now) but there have been so many false dawns that I still reckon July.
To not be all doom and gloom though if an RNS was released this week what is everyone's predictions for share price. Considering gold is flying. Mine is 3.5p
Wet season is from June to September and I doubt anything will happen on the ground before then so they would probably get the sign off done then so they can hot the ground running in October like they were meant to do last year
Anyone want to play a fun game for predictions on when tkgm will be signed off. Been let down so much that I personally predict that the word imminent actually means jul 23
I realise we only get a limited picture of what Ethopia is like and many concerns have been raised about safety so here is a recent travel video to provide some perspective https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GDR9x_Arq4&list=UUF71yDQwxfw0QcYb2JnkB5Q
Tern deal not going through
I remember before many people were saying 15p on tariff acceptance ages ago. Has anyone got any updated realistic price predictions for when news get released (fingers crossed in the next 6 weeks)
Thanks so much. It's so rare for someone to provide an answer to a honest question on these chat rooms without accusations of ramping / deramping being thrown around
Thanks for your help