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Gold costs look under control having been reduced to ~$1000/oz all in. With the smelter coming online profit and refurbishment finishing revenues will go up and costs down (commodity price dependent of course). The upcoming results should be a great read and show lots of cash flowing in but the long term direction of this company looks even better. Baron - Cheers for the heads up, I like!
Much appreciated all. Techs look tasty here. Story kind of writes itself. Stock holds above the 200DMA (2.16), volumes increases with anticipation of results, wedge break out confirmation...other news flow such as BR holdings will only help matters here. In saying that the techs are nothing compared to the fundamentals. What a company like this is doing trading at a PE ~ 1 is beyond my understanding.
Today has been my MWA research day. Pretty happy sticking my money in here now, just working out whether to put my allocation in tomorrow or to spread it out. I have seen the suggestion that BR are buying in but haven't been able to find the source. Could you point me in the right direction?
Totally agreed. Pump and dump complete. The share chat will dry up the price will stagnate at the historic lows and the pumpers will be long gone. It is incredible how easy it is. This share will come good and multibag again multiple times on news of a farm out....just not worth touching until then.
Agreed. Its a real shame that the company released this RNS. Its essentially just an advertisement trying to draw in more PI's for an inevitable placing. I like FRI and it has great potential, but until the farm out is agreed it is exactly that..potential. This will bag and bag again on news of a farmout. My advice, FWIW, dont take the risk...miss out on the first bag and take advantage of the rest.
Got to say I agree with your figures....2000 is a way off but will be reached. For those wondering how viable CAZA is with decreasing oil prices I implore you to read the Q2 statement. Total costs per barrell or in the region of $50-$60 including $20 per barrell for depreciation etc. These costs will only go down with production increases aswell. No worries here and an incredibly undervalued company taking a hit from sentiment alone.
Thanks for this. I suppose the most important part for me is: "The Company's risk management strategy is dictated in part by covenants in the Note Purchase Agreement (as defined herein) which require the Company to hedge approximately 75% of its production." Providing they are following there own strategy then one would expect CAZA to have a floor price for oil of $80 at the very very worst. This makes me feel far more comfortable holding CAZA. The only reay question is how long will this oil price blip last for and have CAZA hedged for long enough. Bought in at 20p to hold for the long term and I fully intend to do so. GLA
I think this is partly the reason why CAZA is getting smashed. If this is the only hedge they have, not sure about this and maybe a question to be asked, then the 2014 swap is covering an average of only 111boepd which is nothing compared to the current output and leaves CAZA massively exposed to price movements. In saying all this I believe CAZA is still OK a the current oil price and maybe even $75/$70 a barrel.
Maybe thats the answer. CAZA does a 1 to 1000 split, put the SP at 0.02p per share and watch the PI's who somehow cant wrap their mind around the calculation of a MCap flood in. In all seriousness I strongly suspect that there will be a strong bounce back up this afternoon, maybe not quite to even but still. Today has been a day of scare tactics. The Oil price has dropped 20% since June yet CAZA has done the same in a flash of a pan.
I agree that comparing CAZA and LGO is comparing apples to pears, different beast all together. In saying that LGO has A LOT of good news priced in already. If a well were to come up with say sub 200bpd then it would free fall. CAZA on the other hand has not only no news priced in but has failed to price in any good news in the past 6 months. The debt is an issue and a new loan note will have to be negotiated at some point but with the reserves at CAZA's disposal that shouldn't be an issue (although would have been easier before the whole oil price issue). Bit annoyed that I bought in on Tuesday when just a few days later I could have got 15% more shares. Oh well, sit and wait. This company is worth £100m easily in my opinion.
So that is faroe now at 12-13k boepd although they cant economically count for that until 01/01/2015. The market will wake up eventually to this.
It is a little worrying. The perfect storm for a bear market. Low demand with IMF downgrades. High supply. V strong dollar. I think it will continue to drift for the time being until something happens on the global scale to any one of these three factors. Thankfully CAZA will still be a profitable company even at much lower prices partly due to their hedging strategy.
https://rbnenergy.com/crude-falls-to-pieces-how-far-will-it-tumble Both Brent and WTI forward curves flatten out in their tails – suggesting a “bottom” very close to today’s price of $92/Bbl for Brent and $10/Bbl less for WTI. But since crude prices have fallen by about 20 percent since June because of a supply glut there may be little to stop the slide in the near term until some new event impacts supply. That could be OPEC resolving its differences and getting back in line to raise prices. Most OPEC producers have their economies tied to crude prices, so they are incentivized to support actions that would bolster crude prices. . There may be other political events disrupting supplies – the Mideast seems wide open to that eventuality right now. However, in the short term we are unlikely to see a significant drop in crude production here in the U.S. – even if crude prices fall some way below $80/Bbl. That’s because there are plenty of shale plays with attractive rates of return at crude prices well below $80/Bbl and new drilling is more likely to migrate to areas with better rates of return than to come to a halt.
https://rbnenergy.com/crude-falls-to-pieces-how-far-will-it-tumble Both Brent and WTI forward curves flatten out in their tails – suggesting a “bottom” very close to today’s price of $92/Bbl for Brent and $10/Bbl less for WTI. But since crude prices have fallen by about 20 percent since June because of a supply glut there may be little to stop the slide in the near term until some new event impacts supply. That could be OPEC resolving its differences and getting back in line to raise prices. Most OPEC producers have their economies tied to crude prices, so they are incentivized to support actions that would bolster crude prices. . There may be other political events disrupting supplies – the Mideast seems wide open to that eventuality right now. However, in the short term we are unlikely to see a significant drop in crude production here in the U.S. – even if crude prices fall some way below $80/Bbl. That’s because there are plenty of shale plays with attractive rates of return at crude prices well below $80/Bbl and new drilling is more likely to migrate to areas with better rates of return than to come to a halt.
OK. I have done my DD and bought in on the bell today for < 100p. Short term this could slip but by the new year FPM will be producing 13kboepd. By then a MCap of £250 will look stupid. Looking for 150p+ by the end of January. Good Luck All
Just doing some after hearing about it from Malcy. Either I am doing something wrong or the Maths here doesnt add up. -£100m cash as on July (less now due to £35m payment and operating costs of approx £5m per month) -Expected production as of 01/01/2015 of 13000boepd (4000 + 4000 from Schooner and Kech + 5000 from Hyme) -Well below the placing price from 120p. Will have to look into it more but at first glance this is cheap as chips. Would explain the broker ratings. The only concern is that now at 5 year lows so hard to tell if it will slip further or bounce of 100p. Wont matter in the medium term.
Doesn't look likely. I was very close to investing at 4p but decided to leave it. Thank goodness. Now valued at just £1.5m which considering their properties is a pitance. There must be a dead cat bounce soon but not worth trying to catch this falling knife. This is the ultimate farm out gamble, without it I see them going bust. Also worth noting that the company essentially have no money and can only raise small sums via placings due to their market cap.
The most important bit: "The planned farmout of 50 per cent. of Licence 61 is more attractive for PetroNeft and significantly less dilutive for other Shareholders." So it looks like there will be dilution no matter what....then again the company gets to keep 50% of Licence 61 which is better than I thought. After what happened today at MTA the Natata offer looks terrible.
has been jumk for so long....terrible communication from the BOD. But IF, and its a big if, the flow rates stabalise at around 2500 boepd and the share price stays around the 100p mark then it will all of a sudden look very cheap IMO.