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Seen a lot of false dawns on this share, but... maybe someone know something...
Hello all, it's been a while. I've been concentrating on making a bit of money on the crypto bounce. Trades have slowed down to almost nothing here, everyone either invested as much as they are willing and holding (like myself) or has fled.I still have confidence but this is the very definition of a slow burn now, I'm not tempted to average down, it'll move when it moves and I don't think we are eading much lower. I like the Truspine investment. For now this is lurking in the bottom drawer awaiting any of the investments to prove themselves truly disruptive.
They do have form for taking profit at a predefinded level BD. Same thing happened with KNB and as I remember there was some slating on this board for not riding the wave the whole way up. I think that if Ensilica flys out of the blocks there will be some calculated profit taking at a disciplined level.
Ah man, I wish I knew when Aeristech would list, smaller investment I know but it's the one that excites me the most.
Great to have some positive news even if it does only excite the SP a little bit. So many IPOs on AIM have fallen hard of late so let's hope they price it correctly from the off, then our 12% discount is going to be worth something. I like the look of the sector and company.
If the Arcadia results were obviously commercially significant I would have expected the market to have reacted by now.
You'll forgive me Jimmy I hope for tempering your 'half glass full' attitude with my somewhat more skeptical approach. You have been very effusive on this board and I applaud your consistency in this regard, however I'm keen to discuss and explore all of the possibilities until we have concrete facts in front of us. Still looking for some medical expertise if anyone here can bring more to the discussion.
I hope that you are correct Jimmy. It would be up to NICE to make that cost/benefit call in this country, with the data published and the safety info all in place it could be rushed through. I still think that they are implying that they see application on a wide scale in countries with poorer healthcare systems and lower vaccination rates.
That is true, all the safety studies were complete before the Arcadia trial.
This paragraph also very relevant to my current hypothesis:
'The COVID-19 pandemic has been truly global, and SGSC believes that AZD1656 could be particularly valuable in countries where limited hospital resources, low vaccine uptake and a high prevalence of vulnerable individuals have conspired to push up hospitalisation and death rates.'
Read the whole thing in the news section here: https://www.sgscapital.org/ and see what you all think.
If we are talking about suspicions my thinking is this. I suspect that VELA's commercial interest in the Arcadia trial was solely for the use of AZD1656 in diabetic patients with COVID and that the results are not good enough to commercialise in the Western world. From the SGSC write up:
'SGSC is actively engaged in commercial discussions with appropriate global and regional pharmaceutical companies, with the objective of outright sale, partnership in future development or securing funding for the additional clinical studies necessary to get this to market. Ideally AZD1656 would be evaluated in broader non-diabetic patient populations, both hospitalised patients and those at higher risk of hospitalisation due to underlying health conditions. Despite the unknowns around the evolution of the pandemic, SGSC believes that AZD1656 has the potential to generate significant long-term revenue.'
However I also think that the trial has thrown up some intriguing lines of enquiry for researchers, also from the SGSC write up:
'In addition to the clinical benefit observed in this high-risk patient group, the immunological data gathered from the trial strongly supports SGSC’s rationale for the ARCADIA study by confirming that AZD1656 is an immunomodulator which damps down the inflammatory response characteristic of COVID-19 infection, while enhancing the virus-specific immune response.'
Hence the recent investment in Igraine. Just my thoughts at this stage.
Do you think that these margins are significant enough for meaningful commercialisation kentan?
I did say that but it's only on the basis of a basic layman's scan. SGSC has a much more positive spin on their website and I'd be very interested in the opinion of someone who has the relevant expertise to explain how good or average the results actually are.
That said, we really need an expert here to quantify exactly how good or average these results are.
This is exactly why I wanted a critical eye. Perhaps this is also why a PR firm has been engaged now. The write up on the SCSC website also has a pretty positive spin. COVID doesn't seem to be going anywhere so lets hope for a positive move here now as well as better outcomes for the medically vulnerable. GLA
Results are in here: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/results/NCT04516759?term=AZD1656&phase=12&draw=2
I'd be very interested in a medical perspective if we have on on the BB here. To my laymans eyes it looks like there is a measurable benefit but it is small.
Bar was probably set too low for SGSC, any measurable improvement equated to success and they had that but it might be that the metric isn't enough for commercialisation. Personally I'm a bit more hopeful than that but until we have peer reviewed and fully crunched results we just can't know. The Igraine purchase both implies decent results but also leans towards no tangible news until at least August so that there can be no accusation of insider trading.
Nope, but it's not quick. The Aeristech pre-IPO funding round was February 2021, the EnSilica pre-IPO investment was this January, hence my comments about long-term thinking. By the time Aeristech does float they should come flying out of the blocks, they've been building up nicely in the background over the last 14 months.
I agree with the long term thinking, despite the underwhelming performance of most of the live investments to date I am personally hopeful for the Aeristech and EnSilica IPOs and I think that the Igraine investment smacks of a deal finally being struck around August. I think I'll see my investment break even by Q4 and at that point we should be on an upwards curve. I would have loved a quicker return but I'm willing to sit out another 18 months to see where it goes.