The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Matures on Dec 2nd, will be interesting to see if that is fulfilled with physical shares.
My gut is we'll run sideways until then, but the whole situation here is laughable until whoever is selling comes to light.
I can't see how it's possible it's just shorters, there HAS to be another seller as the short positions haven't moved enough to warrant the buying pressure.
I just hope to dear god it's not the old founder.
The only other thing I really don't want to be the case is the old founder selling more shares, I mean he has form and may need the cash.
If he does and it gets declared expect a big attempted share raid.
I reckon GS are offloading still, and soon we'll get TR1's to say they're out.
I can't see how the volume of autotrades is leading to the daily UT's and aftermarket buys/sells without any more significant declarations.
There's something very fishy going on
Thanks that makes sense, and I hadn't considered that the options could have been taken by mutliple buyers. I assumed there was 1 buyer and it was 4 million, each was a seperate contract.
All it does is take 4 million more shares from the open trading market and make it even harder for the shorters to close. I wonder if they knew this was going on? I would be surprised if they didn't but if they did why are so many happy to keep selling knowing its happening and making their positions more precarious. There are still options out there so I guess whoever ahs taken them is still buying, and there's even an argument the people buying and selling them are the people with the open shorts.
If they view ASOS as a failure, why not make money on the options and keep increasing the shorts to allow you to do it.
Yesterday I posted this::
'It's a shame we don't know more about MA's options, and who took them.
If for example we knew the strike price was ay £4.20 then any holder of the options would be mad not to be filling their boots sub £4 as provided they could reach the holding of the correct amount of shares to fill it physically it would be a no lose situation (And we don't know the options don't have a mechanism for partial physical fulfilment). Price drops you sell to MA, price rises over £4.20 so the option is out of the money you sell on the market at an even better margin.
It does beg the question could this have been happening behind the scenes? And as MA's large options start to expire, will it affect the SP.
SIH Partners seems to be in and out all over the place, suggesting they might have a vested interested in curbing any rises and the largest option expires at some point this month.
Time will tell as if that option expires, and we see from MA's own TR1's if he has gained physyical shares.'
NOW WE CAN SEE someody has taken their option to supply MA with 4 million shares at the option expiry date. Where does somebody get 4 million shares from if they're not an existing holder?
The fact thisoption has been taken either means:
A - They gave the shared to him from an existing holding potentially at a loss
B - They acquired the shares on the open market to fulfil the option at a profit, and if that's happened then the strike price surely has to have been a fair amount north from here. But to have that many shares if you're not an existing holder surely there would need to be TR1's to state you have the shares as 4 million shares is above the notifiable threshold?
I would be very open to somebody who knows more about this than me to elaborate, but does this not mean there's a chance the SP has been artificially kept down to allow the option taker to deliver the shares, if they needed to acquire?
Maybe there will be a further TR1 signalling where the shares have come from.
Is still heavily dumping, if there's no new shorts/raised shorts tomorrow surely it has to be GS.
It's a shame we don't know more about MA's options, and who took them.
If for example we knew the strike price was ay £4.20 then any holder of the options would be mad not to be filling their boots sub £4 as provided they could reach the holding of the correct amount of shares to fill it physically it would be a no lose situation (And we don't know the options don't have a mechanism for partial physical fulfilment). Price drops you sell to MA, price rises over £4.20 so the option is out of the money you sell on the market at an even better margin.
It does beg the question could this have been happening behind the scenes? And as MA's large options start to expire, will it affect the SP.
SIH Partners seems to be in and out all over the place, suggesting they might have a vested interested in curbing any rises and the largest option expires at some point this month.
Time will tell as if that option expires, and we see from MA's own TR1's if he has gained physyical shares.
What is going on with these crackheads? They seem to open and close their short every other day.
They can't be doing that on borrow surely, and if they are they must be one of the key SP manipulaters.
It just seems a very odd strategy.
Why do I have a glass house Renault?
Nick didn't you know @Toyin is always right? Even when he's wrong!
The thing is it isn't a minimal discount, that's the smoke and mirrors of forward selling. They waited until the SP had dropped close to the placing price before announcing, to allow as much of it to get churned as possible. It's one of the ways they get it through at that price.
Hopefully there's good news planned that will help them churn it, I suspect they would have had to highlight events on the horizon that can help it burn through, so expect some goods new, SP rises, and churned shares bringing back down for a period now.
Whilst underhand if this si the way to get the placing done at the right price so be it, and for those with averages below 20p it's likely to be the new bottom, so not all bad.
Poor Toyin and his saggy turg filled underwear is having to scrape the barrel, he's scoured my post history and taken 'tongue in cheek' posts from other boards to try and give himself some kind of credit for being WRONG!
Hehehe I'll take the fact you have had to resort to that as admittance you were wrong, and I was right.
Your spade must be getting damaged now, why don't you stop digging that hole and crawl off into that stinky crack you came out of.
Here is my original post:
'Not invested here 'yet' but am in opti and interested.
In the danger of sounding like a deramper, what are peoples views on the next cash raise?
Last year they did a large placing the same day as final results, and looking at the news the cash position end of year was £1.3m, and last year was £1.8m at that same time. So with a trial to fund and general costs, does it not seem likely a raise is going to be needed fairly soon.
Looking at the SP movement last year it was high and then dropped down to pretty much the placing price when it went through, which I would be lying if it didn't smell a little like forward selling by instis.
Sorry to bring some negativity here, but I am geniunely interested in the share, the SP just seems a bit high with all this considered. Geniunely interested for others views on this, as it's not a share I have followed for a long time.'
Now you just look like a sour pr#t' I think that's a fairly well researched and educated question, now proven right'
I do love making people like you look like id$$ts Toyin. TATA
I quote:
'Turtle, why dont you do some research and understand the company before making stupid requests.'
The thing is Toyin I HAD done research, I looked at the financial and the previous SP, and derived EXACTLY what was going to happen.
Next time somebody makes fair and educated observations, try not to soil your pants.
Ennismore chumps come from to ruin the party, it's like a big gang bang of shorters.
Almost like there's a contrived effort between them to keep the SP low. Wouldn't be surprised if they keep it up for the next few months, or until retail data.
Very few auto trades today, looks like the MMs are weighing up which way to take it. This £3.80 range seems to be a level they're all happy at, any lower they start to buy and close out, any higher they start to sell. YAWN
Came on a here 2 weeks ago and highlighted last year the SP dropped from a nice high to round about the placing price, highlighted cash was low and I could see the same thing happening again. Toyin lambasted me for having the view of concerns about it as I wanted to choose a good entry price, Farris didn't think a placing was coming.. I said I would be back in a couple of weeks..
Look what's happened again. Sure the cash is needed, and to be fair it's not a bad price, but there's gonna need to be substantial news to burn through this cheddar. £3m is a healthy overhang, no way anywhere near that's been forward sold, but forward selling is exactly what's been happening.
It has seemed for some time there's alsways a heavy auto seller and heavey auto buyer cancelling each other out. I can only derive there's a short closing, and a short opening in tandem. Hence whilst I expect to see shorts reduced today, I also expect shorts to be opened again. The only things that's really changing is that the averages of the shorters are getting closer and closer to the current SP and thus their reliance on further failure being heavier. Not a bad thing but additionally not what wer really want.
Nono quite the contrary I barely have any skin in the game., but I aprpeciate your comments.
I came clean a while back and am in a good place financiall, I don't gamble any more, and have a little bit invested under semi-control of the wife. Plus some invested via my business, under thr control of my business partner. I have access to very little cash myself to prevent me relapsing as there's always the risk .
The main frustration is the little bit I do have in I want to do well, as it's a 'trial' to show the wife there's value in it, unfortunately currently t her it looks like there isn't LOL and maybe that's the reality!!
Thanks LWHL.
Wish I could enjoy that but due to some big errors trading in the past and a gamblin problem I have a very limited budget all invested. ASOS is the one I ahd hoped to release some equity from to allow trades, and I've seen so many great opportunities pass me by holding it, it's incredibly frustrating.
This is all my own fault of course, and also not a sensible strategy to have no spare funds, but c'est la vie.
The problem is bobby there seems to be an endless queue wanting them on borrow.
As soon as one closes a bit, another takes those shares on borrow agin and re sells them. What we really need to see is less new short positions every time some get closed. Ironically though if they REALLY THINk it's going to fail.
Surely they should just let the breakes off, and then sell the shorts from a higher average. That way there would be a bigger margin when it does.
The fact they don't seem to be keen to do this makes me think it's to do with the PUTs/hoping for a raise due to continued bad market economics.