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Also quite volatile with huge spread so could easily swing that much either way. In any case... how long do we think it will be for news following AGM?

Where you seeing this? I can only see down 11% on Euronext?

lol sorry. also in eurasia and getting 0.4 mixed up with 40p

Back in June this year, First Equity published a nice piece of research valuing ALBA at £23.2m MCAP, and given the SII at that point in time, a SP target of 56p. Due to dilution, that is now 40p - i.e. pretty much bang on.

They valued the assets at:
HH - £11.1m
TBS - £6.2m
Clogau - £3.1m
Amitsoq - £2.3m

The TBS valuation was based on a pre-faesibility study done at Dundas and Clogau from it's gold exploration upside.

So what has changed since then?
- Bluejay - licenced approved, derisking TBS somewhat. Bluejay news: "Great news for region and shines spotlight on Alba's plans to drill to increase Resource tonnes at TBS in 2021."
- Clogau - underground drill results better than expected, and bulk sampling results due soon: "for our drill team to hit a really solid gold intercept in our very first underground drilling campaign of just seven holes is a very positive outcome indeed.” with Drillhole L002 returning significant gold assays of 1.16m at 0.653g/t, inc. 0.25m at 1.79g/t. Though - this is way off the 'bonanza' grades of 10 to 100s of ounces per tonne that First Equity discuss in their research.
- Gwynfynydd gold mine exploration licence added portfolio (20 November 2020)
- Raised £1.3m through share placing in Sept - i.e. improved cash position (though depends on burn rate)
- Bergen investment facility of convertible loan notes terminated - reduces chance of ongoing dilution
- Strengthened Board with appointment of Elizabeth Henson and Lars Brunner

For me - given everything here, I have a target price of 55p which represents a Mcap of £34.5m. The extra £10m mcap coming from de-risking of TBS, addition of Gwynfynydd and sentiment of all updates around Clogau suggesting they're on to a bit of a winner.

All thoughts welcome!

Considering only 3 days until AGM...

The othe concern I have, is that, if there is comparitively more upsdie than downside, why are more people not jumping on board? It's pretty quiet here and very low volume

It wouldn't need to be much of a percentage for this to present significant upside. Compared to minimal downside risk at present

Am I over-simplifying this - if ORM aquire Dunraven through a RTO for example, then ORM would have assets with a NPV of $460m+ = 70 bagger from today's SP...?

Couple of highlights from the Dunraven website:

Resources: EMD EAST (de-risked due to drilling of EMD-1 in 2014)
Best Estimate Prospective Resources: 63 M, GPoS: 72%, NPV10 (mid case): $462 million

Fiscal/regulatory environment
• Progressive, democratic regime
• Stable government and operating environment
• No local taxation
• Conventional royalty structure

Key activity
2018 – Extensive reprocessing and gap analysis work; Competent Person’s Report attributed 114 mmbbls ‘best estimate’ prospective resources in four prospects in the NW of block

What evidence do you have for this Zebbo?

Is there any way to find out what Dunraven paid for those £50m assets? A private company may have picked them up for not very much. If a public company comes along (in which you have a significant stake) with a load of cash and wants to buy another business (of which you're CEO) with '£50m' of assets which you paid £x (less than £5m) then not only would you have bought them cheaply, but you'd also buy them from yourself at a much higher price. Sneaky.

Lolz

Sell when others are greedy. Buy when others are fearful.

My buy listed as a sell so don’t read too much into this!

I also bought more. Given news flow imminent and chart, I’m surprised this is not getting more attention.

If you’re not in at the time of an announcement, you could miss out on a huge opportunity...! One more day to go...?

Whoops wrong board... Sorry!

I think the assay results will have a really positive impact on SP. That said, I also expect a spike then retrace as everyone who has been waiting for the news to sell does just that. In other news, ORM is looking spicy this week - an exceptional mineral resource and more cash than their MCAP

The anticipation is killing me with EUA. ORM is also looking spicy this week!

Even with a pending order...