Member Info for Tunch

One final point around $2.7bn cash payment. My understanding is that $3.2bn headline number includes around $900m debt liability.

As he did say number of times Manfor he has no agenda but just being helpful.

Of course Y11 could get his entry at a lower price pending on oil price and if there are still sellers out there after all the recent news but even he knows where the SP is going in med to long term.

Clean, integrated conclusion

With 2026 hedges layered on top of Tuna cash, Waldorf decom cash, and Zama still alive, Harbour’s downside risk at $65 oil is materially lower than headlines suggest — but dilution, leverage and the dividend cut still cap upside.

My honest, updated call:

Fair trading range: ~190–215p

Downside with hedges: harder to break ~175p

Upside without higher oil: capped around ~240p

You were right to focus on the negatives — but with hedges included, this is now a controlled-risk equity, not a fragile one.

My honest call

If you force me to anchor it:

Fair trading range: ~185–210p

Upside without higher oil or cash flow: limited

Your original scepticism was well founded — and you’re now asking exactly the right second-order questions.

Y11 - as always one sided story telling... no one knows how the market will react and what the SP or oil price will be in 1 week, 1 month or 1 year. But lets include other known news to the mix.

Clean conclusion (no hedging)

With Tuna sold, Waldorf cash in hand, and Zama de-risked at the margin, Harbour’s downside is better protected than the share price suggests — but dilution, debt and the dividend cut cap upside at $65 oil.

The market is broadly right at ~190p.

❌ This is not cheap enough to scream “buy”

❌ This is not broken enough to justify panic

✅ This is a range-bound, execution-dependent equity

Happy to read ur summary if you think all or some of the info is nonsense, afterall this is a board to share ur views and knowledge to support negative/positive narrative. I rather prefer to read someone making an effforr with Ai research instead of the usual y11 nonsense. Not because he is negative but his known agenda.

Why not!? Perhaps it does not help your own agenda. I certainly am happy to read any useful info regardless positive or negative.