The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
I appreciate the responses I got to my moaning the other day. It is true that I did become addicted to spread betting this. I took a punt 18 months ago which made me a paper profit of 150k which like a complete fool I left in until it was completely destroyed plus a very large sum that I put in in dribs and drabs to chase it, not believing that the share price would continue to fall to a 30-year low as a result of the turnaround.
I do think it has taught me a lesson and I am focused on a business start up that I really needed to do anyway because I'm too young to retire.
So if anyone is interested in autonomous ships let me know :-)
I don't mind admitting that I found this weekend very stressful after that deep fall on Friday. What a relief that it seems to be edging up this morning, however temporarily. I got myself trapped into this always believing that it was going to turn around and go up. I am fully aware that that is not the attitude and that this is a risk game.
Some of you may remember that I said I had no credibility a couple of months ago because I had believed in this chair and therefore I would not post any more.
I also said I would keep a small bet which stupidly I increased as the share price decreased to previously unimaginable levels.
I saw an interesting post about Adolfo having to hand the company over to administrators because of the decrease in share price.
Can people comment on this please? Is there any reason to doubt that Adolfo will have at least six months to make an impact?
Final thanks to everyone for your comments on my situation it's nice to see how genuinely sympathetic board participants have been.
I have zero credibility on this subject having made a complete fool of myself in being mesmerized by hopes, dreams, will of the wisps.
It is beyond clear that I know absolutely nothing whatsoever about why a share goes up or down. I genuinely have not a single clue about whether capita is even going to stay in business. It wouldn't surprise me if they announce that they've done their best but when the company went woke it went broke. I cannot really comprehend now why the company doesn't make any money. I don't understand why the senior manager I met is happy to do external business meetings in capita work time, presuming that they work a normal week. Where is the commitment to capita? I looked the manager up online and saw mterial about inclusion, nothing about service delivery. Does anyone at capita actually care about running a business? If not what is going to happen as Adolfo tries to pull levers? What is a business with a purpose? Capita seeks to make money out of chasing people who can't afford their television licence or who drive in London. Isn't there a big confusion about what it's all about?
Something that has been upsetting recently is reading that lots of other companies have deals with Microsoft so it doesn't actually make capita special. Also that other companies in the same space of further ahead on the great hope AI.
What is going to happen when Labour gets in and local authorities have to lay off large amounts of staff due to bankruptcy? I think we all know that protecting the network of local authority managers is the number one concern of modern day socialism. Are they really going to prioritise efficiency? What is going to happen to corporate tax rates? Conservatives have raised taxation to the highest level in our lifetimes. What will labour do, reduce rates? If instead they increase them what international investors will buy the UK stock market?
I just can't hope any more, try as I have. Of course, my capitulation is possibly a sign that the bottom has been reached and its only up from here. I hope very much that that is correct because I have still kept a small bet on and would love to see everyone else do well and make money for the first time in a year of relentless losses. I simply cannot understand why this share is worth even less than it was at the beginning of 2022 when a big turnaround is meant to have happened and the share got up to 44p, and that's without taking into account inflation. The company makes no money.
I just have to get those thoughts off my chest and will now shut up while keeping an eye on what's happening. I've lost my money and also any credibility in thinking about or commenting on this company. I am completely baffled about how we all got here and disgusted with myself for not having been man enough to take a loss and move on long long ago.
Thanks goCPI and other posters.
Its difficult to write this but also cathartic: in total since the beginning of 2022 I have gambled a ridiculous £270,000 and lost £251,000 in dribs and drabs all the way down over the years. I was mesmerised by an initial gain as I said of £150k on my initial stake of £50k from a once in a lifetime property sale.
I was a rabbit caught in headlights thinking that it had to turn around since the company was meant to be getting better and there might be a buyout at any point.
I needed that money for a tax bill so looks like I'm going to be selling up.
goCPI I remember your advice and wish I had sold the lot at that point but of course I thought I was clever.
The reason I lost my money is that I spread bet this share to be tax efficient and to gain from the leverage.
I was too naive to realize that the market was not going to be interested in the company's statement of progress.
I was that fool who saw an enormous paper gain on his spread bet, £150k, then took that as validation and invested more and more on the way down.
My mistake and we live and learn.
The reality is that after all the restructuring and all the hope and all the investment the share has fallen by 32% in the last six months, 14% in the last month.
Anyway maybe the investment gods will be satisfied with my loss and will turn it around for you guys.
Cheers Nofear. You have proved that you and aim master were correct.
I think these discussion forums are a bit of a trap because most people are long and keep coming up with reasons why a share is about to go up.
Recently I met a senior manager at capita who shall remain nameless. They work largely from home and are happy to do external consultancy work that is nothing to do with Capita.
I am embarrassed to admit that I have been spread betting this long for 18 months and have lost an absolute fortune.
Today I've had to face up to the fact that I can't afford it and have had to walk away just leaving a tiny on going bet. My fault and I have no one to blame but myself.
I saw two anti Capita pieces in the press today. One criticising the BBC licence fee collection system and the other, 'soulless' army recruitment.
Yes I think this will probably turn around obviously since I've been gambling on it for all this time and it may be that it happens right now since I'm effectively out but I don't know any other company that has such incredible headwinds against it all the time.
This must be one of the most hated shares on the stock market and I'm not sure that Labour is going to be that friendly.
Stupidly I was having a drink with a member of parliament six months ago and admitted that I'm having a gamble on Capita. He laughed in my face and I took no notice.
Fujitsu out of the picture.
Serco possibly about to be bought by American private equity, so less attractive to the UK civil service.
Highlighting of difference in valuation between Serco and Capita.
On the downside, it's going to be expensive to get rid of the dead wood.
My main aim here is to get through the rest of JL's tenure without losing the lot.
I can just see him holding his final tea n biscuits meetings, reassuring senior staff that he is hanging on until July to keep AH honest.
Culley, agreed. This would be a very depressing story if it wasn't for him joining.
He has to move the company away from thousands of public sector style staff and towards high quality AI knowledge building and deployment.
But I am down a huge amount on this so what do I know? :-(
@gotoutjust
Some clients will do it themselves but capita will be in the middle seeing what is going on and implementing it with others. The expertise will be extremely valuable even if it is just hand-holding. That will free up resource to use clients for new clients surely.