Member Info for Trilla

Let's hope they pull out. Short term pain but long term gain. Pinewood will be a structural beneficiary of AI rather than a victim.

Another slightly unusual shareholder (FEOH Investments) popping up above the 3% threshold (alongside Sellaronda). I suspect a lot of the loose shares are being mopped up by long time holders who buy into the long term potential. Looking forward to when the shorts decide to cover.

The company has already been demoted from the 250. Shame to miss out on a 5 bagger though just because there is no news flow. Revenue will be around £135m in 2028 without new contracts. The company only needs to win a few US contracts in the next 2 years and you’ll get your 10x revenue multiple.

Assuming the country can stick to the present reforms (and that is not guaranteed), then Nigerian assets could very significantly revalue. FX liquidity is now good and inflation rapidly falling. We are talking multi-bagger type revaluations in EM when conditions really do change for the better. That bet is free at the moment with PZC (I.e. there is nothing in the price for Nigeria).

Possibly related to index rebalance activity. Lots of hedge funds (like Millenium) trade index rebalance strategies, shorting for example ahead of the event and then closing at the uncrossing trade on the effective date. Index funds would be on the other side.

It is true that Pinewood is highly priced on short term multiples and there is possibly a bit of churn happening from old Pendragon shareholders to new ones who invest in SaaS.

It is clear however, that the business is materially undervalued based on its best in class SaaS economics and growth that is contractually in-place. It can be said that Lithia is a revenue concentration risk for Pinewood, but it is also supporting the business in expanding at scale into the US market. It also cannot be overlooked that Lithia itself is highly acquisitive, which will support a high NRR aside from new customer growth.

The key risk of course is messing up the new implementations, but management seems aware of how critical this issue is.

This is one of the best UK tech stories on the FTSE. Fantastic economics with rapid and contractually locked-in growth. Lithia highly aligned and kindly funding the group to go after the massive US market.

I think it is worth keeping an eye on GAP Ltd (ECEL's closest competitor in the branch network). They are expanding the store network rapidly and often with direct overlap of catchment area to ECEL, often with a superior experience.

Https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/nigeria-approves-26-billion-electricity-sector-debt-refinancing-plan-2025-08-14/?taid=689dd34ace92280001dc2094

The shares are pricing in material challenges for the business but this RNS appears to confirm some stability, particularly in the higher margin data products business as well as CPS. It is however, a terribly worded RNS and it is quite astonishing that they can't provide a single figure within it. I think this will hold the shares back from going a lot higher today until we actually see the numbers.

There will likely be some drag in the reported figures due to USD weakness vs. GBP, but at least they’ll report constant currency numbers as well. Regarding the debt, it would be nice to see them refinance perhaps with a Euro denominated 5-year bond which they would hopefully get away at +250/300bps. 3M Euribor is now below 2% compared to 4% when they first financed the CPS deal.

It does not take a rocket scientist to realise that YouGov is undervalued compared to what a well informed private buyer would be willing to pay. Kantar Media is in the process of being sold for just under 9x EV/EBITDA to HIG and I’d expect NielsenIQ to IPO at a similar valuation later in the year. FY26 EBITDA for YOU should be c£100m, so the business is at a minimum worth £900m, even though it arguably has better economics than those two aforementioned examples. Thus the question is really whether that EBITDA number is seriously at risk. It is not too much of a stretch of the imagination to see a deleveraged YOU in 3 years time with £125m of annual EBITDA and a market cap of £1bn+ again. It is why any offer will need to at least start with a 6 to be entertained.

The buyback was funded by releasing working capital after an exceptional build-up during the Covid period. Recent capex has actually been in excess of depreciation. It must also be noted that the company issued new shares back in 2020 to fund this excess working capital and expansionary capex (at a higher share price). I personally think the buyback has been a fantastic use of capital given the share price. Remaining shareholders now own nearly 10% more of the earnings than they did before (which will be nice in the up-cycle). I hope they continue resolutely with the buybacks and would be much more worried about management incentives if they wasted the excess cash on vanity projects.