Member Info for TribalHound

They're posted at a trade price of 16p - so unless they are a negotiated trade with one of the major shareholders selling off book then if they're 'worked' trades they would have to be from Dec / Jan as the volume & price us doesn't stack up with the on book prices.
Unless - some MM bought them on loan to drive the price down and we'll see another delayed posting at 10p when they sell them back after closing a sizable short position - if that's even possible / legal.
The reality is we'll likely never know until we're all so far underwater it won't even matter.
To think XLM once traded 12x the price it is today - and paid dividends in 2017/2018 that would represent about 35% of today's share price.
'IF' sports betting in the US takes off and an advertising ban has little effect XLM could potentially return to those dizzy heights, but in the interim it's the revenue to profit ratios that I'm keeping my eyes on.

So the book closed for the day with a 16p price - based on delayed bulk trades for over 5.3m shares.
Expecting an RNS tomorrow off the back of that volume - but what's the betting it took place early and was only posted after the market closed in order to drop the price back down again after quite a solid day of buying.
Something is going on - which as PI's we're just passengers who will be told long after there's an opportunity to do anything about.
Let's see what tomorrow holds and where the price opens by the time we can all trade.

That's one serious sell wall to break through 16.25 looking at the volume of buys today.... If only we could see the order book.

Well that took you all of 3 minutes to deliberate, decide and buy ;)

They only make a whisker of profit because they opened 3 new stores, kitted them out and filled with stock, have bolstered their stock position for all 45 stores and spent a tidy sum opening / stocking their euro distribution centre for spring boarding their growth in Europe. All without adversely impacting the amount of cash they hold.
£2.2m profit might not seem much - but imagine if they re-invested almost nothing what that figure would look like then.
I think the BoD are striking a healthy balance between cash / expenses / growth / profit.

Value for long term investors comes in the form of business growth, which is maintaining a steady, but healthy, and sustainable pace. Maybe when they stop growing we'll see dividends at some point. However, buy backs are a lame use of profit when money is far better spent growing to make more cash.
So for long term investors stuck on dividend payments as a measure of value, well, this isn't the one for them. Too many 'investors' expect businesses to be like ATMs giving them cash or buying back stock to increase their percentage ownership.
You put money in - they grow the business - you own part of a bigger machine. That's the definition of real long term investment.
Market Cap £24m - £14m in the bank - likely a lot more than £10m in stock. Still considerably undervalued when you consider revenue is up 260% since 2018 when the share price was £1.00.

That cash v burn rate looks a tad worrying given all the new contracts you'd expect them to be covering all their costs by now and cash to be much healthier.
Margins are good - once it's all set up / running but I suspect most of the initial contract funds go into setting it up to start with, so it's years 2+ where they're making healthy profits.
So with only 2.2m in the bank and a 0.4m / month burn rate estimate for H1 '23 I'm half expecting to see a raise based on these latest low prices within the next 3 months or so.
I'm also expecting SP to recover back over 10p once new investment is onboard, which may / may not be offered to the public.
Regardless of how much I already put in - sub 5p I've added + will DCA until we break above 8p again. It might take some time - but it'll be well worth it in the long run.

Suthy clearly a paid FUDer by investment bank that missed the early rise.
He just wants his boss to be pleased if he can force 'real investors' to relinquish some of their stock.
I've got news for you Suthy - it ain't happening !!
Buy now - or I'll sell you some shares in 6 months at 95p ;)

Last chance to buy under 2p / share today...... probably.
PA smells of driven down and suppression by someone big to load up - number and size of buys confirms - anyone know how big the sell walls are to break 2p cleanly ?
TA - A/D rising - OBV on incline - stoch RSI strong.
This puppy should be about to explode any day now.

Maybe they won't give out any new shares in this process. Maybe their partner will force a rebrand and new structure, who knows.
If there is a buyout though (at whatever agreed price) you can almost guarantee the new owners will increase debt in some way to get back their investment capital.
I always think back to Man Utd (& I hate football) - A cash rich company, taken over by the Glazers for £800m and then run up huge debt - ironically they're now refloated and rumors Amazon are interested around £7bn. But how did the little man fare in all of that - certainly the fans and followers hate the Glazers with a passion.

Not wanting to dampen anyones spirits - least alone mine as I've been a long term investor - but it was only 6 months ago TGP announced cash flow issues and put themselves in the bid situation.
So to fulfil a giant order they're going to need lots of resources - staff / equipment etc - with depleted cash that's going to need a partner or buy out.
We all know how buyouts / partnerships work in AIM - the investor gets 'new shares' in exchange for investment - or at least an option to buy at a future date.
Whilst I cannot deny this is an exciting time just be mindful that retail never gets a 10 bagger as easily as a straight up in prices.
Yes - TGP will most definitely be a long term success story (under whatever name / new owner / partnership) BUT in the short term just be careful you don't get smoked by the city boys & global corporates - they are far smarter than just sending a company directly to the moon without their ability to do a reset and get onboard cheaper.

HL has been showing BID SITUATION since the RNS about cashflow which caused the drop in June.
Anyone wants some shares - sorry - you're gonna have to wait much higher to get any of mine.
Been in on this stock since 2018 - bought every dip and the last 6 months been putting 'a lot' into this.
It's by far my largest holding (certainly is after today).

The new contract 'might' get TGP out of bid situation - IF cashflow can be improved. If not, it certainly will mean a MUCH better bid for a takeover. RIP all the institutional shorters that have driven this pick 'n' shovel gem into the ground - but thanks for the great 6 month buying opportunity. Will raise a glass ;)

If you want a seriously undervalued stock - then ANG and IMM are two others in the same grossly undervalued categories. Both of which I've heavily invested in recently.

You should probably drop Lanstead an email and buy direct, save broker fees & agree a better price. They've been reducing for some time. :)
Dilution doesn't just come in the form of printing new shares - it can come from a partnership taking a % of revenue before it's even declared. All I'm saying is no matter who's invested, or how they did it, they haven't done it for that warm fuzzy glow of helping someone out - they will want a hefty return - meaning retail gets pushed to the back of the queue.
As for investor - yes, since 2018 and now have almost 30x the number of shares I originally bought.

Oops - should be £18m in June '19
Meaning 5.4p / share would be equivalent value today.
Mind you - they've spent 'a lot' in those 3 + years and not really brought in any revenue.
Dilution is still 'the killer' for us though - and you ban bet Lanstead will want a return on their funding and Avion will likely dilute everyone further if / when they put up £25m.

Just to remind everyone - as Nolupus reminded me yesterday.....

Talk of share price is only relevant when 'in context' and when you also consider the number of shares in total.
So, back in June '19, before Lanstead received 27m 'new shares' the price was 13p - most of which they got at 10p discounted value, so you could even argue 10p is the new 'diluted value'.
Total shares was 139,467,430 @13.3p = £1.8m MCAP
Today the total shares is 333,403,115 @1.62p = £5.4m MCAP
Based on the fact that there are almost 2.5x more shares now that at 13p, a same value for the company (£1.8m) would put the share price at 0.54p, so the 1.62p we see today actually represents a 300% gain in the value of the company in a little over 3 years. Meaning 'dilution' (as always in AIM stocks) is the reason retail investors are in loss.

So any talk of a return to 7p would need a significant change (share burn / major breakthrough) as this would set the company on a valuation of over £23m (or over 12x what is was worth in June '19).

Just for clarity - yes - I have somewhat increased my holdings to bring down my average price, which no doubt I will reduce on the next positive news in order to return some of that additional investment. However, I still believe IMM can make a major advance, not just in Lupus trials but in its many other avenues, so I will be retaining the majority of my stake for the years ahead.

Let's not forget - we've been here before at the end of 2019.
When all hope was lost and price fell to sub 7p then went almost immediately above 30p.
I'm not suggesting 30p from here is less than a miracle (They would need confirmation of a Lupus trials at the very least) and the dizzy heights of 2018 would require an out and out cure, but a solid 50%, 100% or 200% gains from down here are all quite reasonable with just a mildly positive RNS - afterall there's a major global pharma partner that's involved now, so even if IMM were to diversify slightly the current MCAP of £5m would easily become a distant memory.

Exit pump ? - Earning due next week ;)
Hope it's good news been loading up a little extra from 17 down to 12, just to bring my 2018 / 19 / 20 purchases average down.
Still at a loss, but will take back some of that cash if it breaks over 30p.
I just don't get how battered this stock is - given the versatility, flexibility, and potential of the products. This is a sleeping giant waiting to explode or bad management driving it into the ground.
As much as I love the battery idea, I'd just be happy they have enough orders to bring down debt and finally make some reported profits as revenues have been in decline since 2018.

That's 6.95% dividend on today's prices.
For those who got in anytime during 2020 or 2021 the share price is up at least 100% - so for those fortunate investors the dividend represents circa 15% (or more) on their investment capital.
I for one won't be selling a single share - likely ever - having bought in 2020 and had investment cash returned in 2022 selling just a small percentage.
I can envisage only a select few who bought in 2018 or 2019 wanting to sell to break even, but with dividends on the rise, there will be many just happy to share in the spoils until long after the oil bubble bursts (assuming it ever does).

Absolutely - major issues - like footfall down 40%, profits down 25%, 10% store closures, market share up 12%, inflation hits and costs double ... all examples of major issues.
Whether a competitor branch opens it's Cafe or offers free coffee, or is even now a Lidl - not really relevant to M&S performance.

I didn't mention Waitrose or John Lewis.
That's a privately owned business - and this is the MKS chat room.

With MKS profits for the year end reported near £400m & 1/2 year results due out imminently, one could argue that if the last 6 months are even half as good as the previous 12 that we should be back on track to restart dividend payouts.
MKS have additionally announced a 2nd payrise this year for staff, so clearly there is money 'in the pot'.
It begs the question - how much will / should be allocated to shareholders who have not only stood by the BOD but additionally funded the buyout of Ocado retail, which is quite clearly aiding them to increase market share in addition to providing them with another outlet for their ever-successful food.
Maybe we'll be in line for a 'special dividend' to bolster confidence in those of us that have not only stood by them, but have actually increased holdings in this British Institution. Sub £1.50 a share feels like daylight robbery - hovering around £2 feels more like fair value, even with the current economic climate.