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Ginksy, refer to Londonfish's extensive informed posts on costs, as well as my own experience in the industry...
I notice you still didn't actually answer the question though...like you haven't answered many from Spikey et al....how much do you THINK it will cost?
Ginksy, I wish I was a paid troll....I might make some of the money back I lost in ADME over the last 18 months! Fortunately I sold out before these recent lows, but losses nonetheless. All because of Osa. However you are right in saying not everyone has his skillset....A near 90% reduction in share price is a feat to behold! I am though interested in this "strong confirmation that Trafigura is intending to finance the project". So far all we've heard is radio silence after their (non-binding) agreement....any other evidence would be welcome...
Londonfish, very good point. My background is in engineering, and I'm currently at one of the majors. The suggestion of allowing a minor interest party to oversee a project development FEED is ludicrous. In my experience, minor interest parties have the courtesy of a semi-regular update on progress, and if their feedback is considered then that's a bonus. And I've sat on both sides of the fence. Unless ADM will be running their own FEED as DD....DD is obviously something they're famed for...
Spikey, I think Ginksy's frankly farcical position has been made clear for some time. His defence of the board and tone of his replies betrays him. As does his recent slip of previously unknown technical information. "The lady doth protest too much, me thinks". We already knew Osa was a viewer, if not anonymous contributor to the board. If it's not Osa himself, then I hope he's paid handsomely...
Spot-on Peterashbeck. The only two scenarios as I see it, and likely the former as you pointed out. But also as you say...failing to do DD is bad enough...then withholding that information only compounds the failure....
Well this is a turn-up! I can't imagine the ADM Board outright claiming ownership without having been duped in some way....I'm much more inclined to believe they failed in basic DD as they have previous in that respect....
No, they will need to re-award the license. To The Nigerian National Oil Company (NNPC), or a third party for development. But there appears to be no sign of this having happened. Curiously, it appears that NW OML141 is a portion of that license area, and this is what Zenith are negotiating on.
Presumably the RSC that ADME apparently have a stake in via KONH, is an RSC signed with the Operator/Licenseholder at the time (Emerald). So it will depend how watertight that deal is on whether it's worth the paper it's written on with a new Operator/Licenseholder. Just my opinion of course...
It would appear from the RNS yesterday that ADME are talking to Emerald...who my research shows are not the actual operator/licenseholder of the field! So have they been duped?
Past experience would suggest their DD is significantly lacking and it’s not outside the realms of possibility. In fact, I’d say it’s highly likely. But we shouldn’t do our own research, eh Osa?
I actually shared a lot of this information on this board earlier this year. See my post on 25th March 2021 at 12:17. I've quoted it below for reference. I always had some reservations on this deal, and it was one of the reasons after the DBI shambles (Which I also posted extensively about here and on twitter and got shot down), for my selling out a few months ago.
You may also recall that Osa actually indirectly referenced my post on 25th March in one of his video interviews saying that KONH was just a vehicle for the deal and that we shouldn't do so much research!!
25th March 2021 12:17
"Out of interest, I'm trying to understand the current license situation is. KONH (who ADME have acquired control of, is a new company incorporated in February this year in the UK, by an Australian chap Mr Daniel John Shilton Maling.
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/13213236
KONH's subsidiary Noble Hill Network (A Nigerian company) holds "a 70% indirect interest" (Note: Indirect through an RSA) in the Barracuda field.
http://www.noblehillnetwork.com/Noblehill-Network/OML141.html
This RSA means Noble Hill Network (now via ADME) will develop the field in return for some to be agreed profits from the development from the operator & license holders.
So who are the license holders? As I understand it, the Operator was Emerald Energy https://emeraldngr.com/oml-141/ alongside various other minority partners, at one point including CNOOC of China, who departed after a legal battle in the UK with Emerald Energy over £66m in payments https://www.oeclaw.co.uk/images/uploads/documents/China_Export_Judgment.pdf.
However the trail goes cold when the Nigerian government revoked the license from Emerald in 2019. Presumably for lack of development/progress. https://africaoilgasreport.com/2019/04/farm-in-farm-out/nigerian-government-revokes-licences-of-seven-oil-blocks/
So who is the current license holder, and who are the other parties in this RSA are my next questions that I cannot yet answer."
RobertSham, I haven't accused anyone of anything. I asked a question with some humour attached based on the exchange I read that amused me.
If you read the last paragraph of my post, and all my previous postings on ADME, you will see I was always very critical of the Company, even as a holder.
As you will see from this afternoon's RNS, in my opinion the management don't know their arse from their elbow, and have potentially again been duped. As they were with DBI, which my own research (shared on this forum) exposed many months before they admitted.
Are you the same person? I only ask because your conversation in the thread "ADM and Nomad reported to AIM Regulation" seem awfully like a one way conversation when someone has forgotten to log in to the right account and have posted more just to cover the tracks of the mistake. MarketGunslingers posts at 14:50 and 14:54 particularly appear to be in the wrong order!
I don't doubt the intention of the emails to the regulators and clarity can only be a good thing. Either way it's none of my business, I was just curious and found it amusing! I wonder also if RobertSham might be one of your identities?
I'm not a holder here...I was a while ago. Spikey and Dan may remember me. I sold out after the DBI shambles. I just keep an eye on the board and share price for interest. Good luck to all, whatever your position.