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I don't disagree with anything you're saying there bad job, but it wasn't just ASC that I was referring to but general market sentiment - it seems quite dire and volume so low on so many shares that I follow.
I was watching someone from Shopify I think it was on Sky Business News earlier - he was saying that retail sales have been booming for the last few months for them and his comment was something like "what recession?", which when you look at press reports over the weekend about black Friday sales seems to support what he was saying in that its been record sales, but on Bloomberg now this afternoon they're saying black Friday sales were dire so its hard to know where things really stand at the minute. I know the China situation has taken the steam out of things a bit today, but you would have thought on the back of all that positive stuff retailers would have had a good day - Shopify has just opened up 7.6% in the States.
From this mornings sell off because of the unrest in China.
I always find it interesting to read the comments here - it would seem that some people come on here spreading FUD when the share price has had a hammering thinking they can make a difference to how others think/feel about the company and its prospects - they then disappear again until the next time the share price goes down - let's hope they disappear for good after this week when we hopefully will start to see a sustained rebound.
I have to be honest, I am finding it really hard at the moment to see what is going to change the sentiment here/retail shares in general in the short term - I did think about a month ago that with falling inflation, Xmas shopping period upon us and the fact that retail sales have been improving since the uncertainty of the Truss government that momentum would be with us but how wrong am I!
Unless something significant happens (like the war in Ukraine ending which I don't see likely) in the very short term, I would expect marginal improvements in the share price but the "magic bullett" where volume/significant share price increases may still be some time away looking at how the share price/markets have been acting over the last couple of months - looks like I'm going to be the bottom of the pile with my target price by Xmas which I'm really surprised about considering its not so long ago the share price reached £11 and I did feel at that time that we would see gradual increases.
The one good point about the share price being so cheap is that if you're able to trade what I would call the obvious spikes and shakes you can accumulate more shares at these sorts of levels - fingers crossed that inflation figures out this week give the markets a bit of a boost.
That the low point for the share price was around the 19 October which is when Bloomberg were forecasting the end of the bear market. I've looked at a few other shares like OCDO, WIZZ and THG and they're all similar - whether it was "the bottom" will remain to be seen but interesting if in time it turns out to be the case.
A lot of market commentators that I follow seem to think that the bottom is in especially in respect of the US markets in light of the lower inflation rate quoted last week - it will be interesting to see how our inflation figures come out next week - if there's an improvement/reduction in the underlying figure then that might be the signal for the institutional investors to start getting back in and for the shorts to close.
I know that the circumstances are slightly different to the bounce we saw following covid, but in March 2020 the share price hit a low of £9 odd and by April it had recovered to £23 - wouldn't it be nice to have a significant bounce in time for Xmas.
Have been really tough in the markets but hopefully the turnaround is happening and will be maintained. West, I know its each to their own and everyone has a different way of doing things, but you don't need a separate trading pot to do what I was saying earlier - if you have 1,000 shares, whether you paid £5, £10, £20 or even £50 regardless of their price now you still have 1000 shares. Just by trading the spikes and shakes when you're confident that you can buy in cheaper you're just using some of your holding to release some cash - just a different way of looking at things rather than wait for the share price to get to your original purchase price - on that note, what would you do when you get in profit - sell to buy back in cheaper? Only a thought.
Scallop - when the share trades in what I would call "normal circumstances" there can be a 50p range - so selling 1000 shares today at £6.40 and buying back in tomorrow at £5.90 would make me just under £500 so its worth doing - the only thing is when there's no "spike" as I call it you could end up paying more for the shares you just sold.
I tend to trade these and OCDO so today I had a 30p swing from top to bottom there so nearly £300 on those today which is nice.
Down to 7.9% today - I was tempted to sell today with a view to buying back in cheaper tomorrow given how much the share price has risen over the last two days but there just seems to be relentless upward pressure at the moment - looking around at some of the other shares which are heavily shorted there's been quite good rises elsewhere as well so I decided against it for the time being - it reminds me of when the share price rose around £3 odd during a week back in July - hopefully this is the start of a sustained rise given all the positive data starting to come out - apparently European gas supplies are at maximum levels and the price has dropped below €100 for the first time since June - that will have a good impact on inflation.
Yes inflation figures were fractionally worse than projected - all 0.01% I think - forecast was something like 8.1% and it came in at 8.2% so as is usual in these times the market reacted in a negative way. I agree with what you're saying about not searching for bottoms, but I'm reading/researching a lot of information so that I can make an informed choice for myself but "use the expertise of others" for guidance.
As is always the case in these scenarios, no-one really knows "where the bottom is" until its passed which is fine.
From memory I think it was about 4 months ago that he thought the bottom may be in and started to drip feed some positions. In fairness, I think he was quite quick to say he was wrong at that time but it's not just him that I follow who are of a similar mind - I think the spanner in the works is that inflation has been stubbornly high in the States which has dragged things out.
Well as I've been asked I shall say but you may think I'm off my head :-) I think today's drop has been deliberately manipulated to let people in at cheap prices - either that or MM's want to make some good profit as they know there's only a limited window where prices are going to be this cheap. Inflation figures come out on Wednesday, and if as suggested by some commentators the impact of the energy price cap has meant inflation has peaked and has now come down by around 5%, then that's the indicators that a lot of fund managers are waiting for to enable them to get back into the market. Added to that is the news that supply chain issues/costs have been dramatically reducing which will have a positive impact here it all bodes well for the markets to start turning a bit more positive and forward looking.
I think I mentioned that Bloomberg have said that bear markets last on average x number of days, with the current one (according to them) due to end on or around 19 October - this information is based on previous bear markets and various statistics. I know I've said tongue in cheek about the date that the bear market ends, but things can't be going down forever, and apparently bear markets end as recessions start so to me everything is starting to point towards more positive movements going forward.
Someone mentioned earlier about ASC discussing/re jigging things isn't anything to be concerned about and I have a tendency to agree - I also agree with some comments earlier about stories being "placed" and "hyped" in the press to benefit hedge funds etc.
As with anything, it's only time will tell but wouldn't it be lovely if we are coming to the end of the downtrend - would certainly lift everyone's mood but at the moment I have no reason to change where I am expecting the share price to be by Xmas - as there's so few shares on issue the swings in share price are exaggerated and I think a lot of people here have seen how quickly the share price can move up when the "mood" changes.
This morning had a segment about pension funds following the Bank of Englands announcement last night that the funds have to get their books in order by Friday. A guest on the programme was explaining that pension funds have leveraged themselves too much, which only came to light following the mini budget and the subsequent spike in gilt rates. Apparently they have been having to sell assets (including equities) at depressed prices to balance their books - probably everything was ticking along quite nicely and where they had leveraged themselves were just waiting for markets to recover before selling their assets - could be the reason for so much downward pressure everywhere lately.