RE: Truly dreadful17 Mar 2024 21:12
"Travelcard is not involved and yet he has a view on value" - If I were considering an investment, why wouldn't I have a view on value?
"He wouldn't buy the shares post the placing even though the company is now fully funded" - I don't believe the company is fully funded. It is only funded from the JV perspective and that's assuming AA decide to continue. Re funding - If they want to develop Botswana IMO ARC will need more capital.
"the share price is much lower than it was before the period leading up to the placing" - The company was overvalued. It had a working capital deficit which was obvious. I have consistently said when is the placing going to happen for the last 4 to 5 months. Last week - et voilà, a placing is announced.
My principles on EV & corporate finance are easy. Post the new placing shares being admitted to trading on AIM - for ARC to get to 3p it will have a market cap of £42m. Overvalued for a company that only has a percentage of a JV which it does not control. Plus it will probably have increased overheads due to Botswana.
For this to get to 5p (without warrants being exercised) £70m market cap. Again, overvalued for a company that only has a percentage of a JV which it does not control.
To get to 10p, by the time last weeks placing warrants have been exercised, additional placings to fund Botswana and additional CAPEX/OPEX leads to a market cap of c.£160m - £170m and still not a pound of copper produced. From an EV perspective the numbers just don't work and that doesn't also take into account LTVM. Show me an early stage copper exploration company that has similar characteristics to ARC valued at £170m? I won't hold my breath!!!
The institutional investment universe for natural resources companies is quite a small and a close knit network. If ARC is a slam dunk, why wasn't the placing underwritten by a known natural resources investor? EV, that's why. Transformational deals in the mining world are not kept alive with a retail placing, that tells you all you need to know.