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This is the latest from Morgan Stanley and its bullish stance on oil. The article is from Yahoo Finance again: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/6-reasons-morgan-stanley-optimistic-145513145.html
Folks, do not forget the METRICS of these deals that took place just one week ago and are in CAZA's neighborhood. These regions receive the SAME oil pricing like CAZA.
After Morgan Stanley, HSBC joined the bull club yesterday and predicted a rise from the current ultra low levels: The article is from YAHOO/Finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/prepare-95-oil-2015-hsbc-164058078.html
The oil futures expire today.... and the meeting for IRAN's nuclear program is early next week.....
Thanks to these 3 wells and their flowing history, CAZA can exit 2014 at 1,700 boepd or higher.
I read this morning: KUWAIT just CHANGED its initial approach and joins QATAR, IRAN, VENEZUELA, ECUADOR, LIBYA in cutting oil output. This is the excerpt: Kuwait's cabinet and the country's Supreme Petroleum Council held an "extraordinary" joint meeting Sunday to consider measures to stop the slide in prices. According the official KUNA news agency, the meeting "discussed the steps that have to be taken on all levels...including having consultations with fellow OPEC member states for maintaining interests of all parties". This comes as a surprise considering the country's earlier statements of confidence in a rebound of prices and that there was no reason to panic Only last week Kuwait's oil minister stressed that he did not believe there would be a reduction in output by OPEC when its 12 members gather in November 27 in Vienna. Venezuela, Ecuador and Libya have already contributed to the debate by saying that a cut was appropriate. The YAHOO Link for the article: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cracks-widen-opec-oil-prices-102211719.html
Glad that I did not sell Salamander at $90.
Damaskos is also long on CAZA.
The latest interview from Angelos Damaskos, the fund manager: http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/16355 I quote: TER: What's your second Asian junior favorite? AD: Salamander Energy Plc (SMDR:LSE). It has very solid production from Indonesia and an existing deal with another company to sell part of its assets for a significant consideration. Recently, Salamander has received an indication of a potential takeover by Ophir Energy Plc (OPHR:LSE). Even though Ophir hasn't tabled its offer and hasn't revealed a specific price or valuation, we believe that it is likely to be significantly higher than the current share price. Salamander trades at about £1 on the London market. Our assessment of its net asset value suggests a true value of 140–150 pence, 40% to 50% higher. To the investor, Salamander represents an arbitrage situation. Better still, Salamander had previously rejected an approach by another consortium, so we could end up with a bidding war.
The latest interview from Angelos Damaskos, the fund manager: http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/16355 TER: What is your favorite junior in North America? AD: Caza Oil & Gas Inc. (CAZ:TSX; CAZA:LSE) is our favorite play there. This is a company that goes from strength to strength. It has a very successful drilling record and has continually added to its production rate over the last two years. It is now almost at 2,000 bbl per day, which could potentially change its valuation and make it a very attractive takeover target by a larger oil company. Plus, it has a very large inventory of potential targets in its territories with substantial seismic data that point to a very large number of drillable prospects. Major expansion would require a significant capex, so Caza is mobilizing at a slow rate. If a major were to take it over, however, it could employ a significant capex plan in a low-risk exploration and development strategy. We think that this company is a potentially attractive prospect for another company to either joint venture or take it over outright. TER: Caza announced results from the initial well at its Broadcaster property in New Mexico Sept. 18. How accretive is this to the company's value? AD: It's extremely attractive because Broadcaster is in the Bone Spring formation. This has become one of the fastest growing oil regions in North America based on improved technology. Horizontal drilling has enabled local operators to multiply production rates several times. Bone Spring underpins Caza's future production growth. Broadcaster is a low-risk operation with the potential to greatly increase production.
Angelos Damaskos and his funds remain bullish on CAZA. Damaskos is the fund manager who discovered CAZA below 10 GBX. I quote from the latest interview: TER: What is your favorite junior in North America? AD: Caza Oil & Gas Inc. (CAZ:TSX; CAZA:LSE) is our favorite play there. This is a company that goes from strength to strength. It has a very successful drilling record and has continually added to its production rate over the last two years. It is now almost at 2,000 bbl per day, which could potentially change its valuation and make it a very attractive takeover target by a larger oil company. Plus, it has a very large inventory of potential targets in its territories with substantial seismic data that point to a very large number of drillable prospects. Major expansion would require a significant capex, so Caza is mobilizing at a slow rate. If a major were to take it over, however, it could employ a significant capex plan in a low-risk exploration and development strategy. We think that this company is a potentially attractive prospect for another company to either joint venture or take it over outright. TER: Caza announced results from the initial well at its Broadcaster property in New Mexico Sept. 18. How accretive is this to the company's value? AD: It's extremely attractive because Broadcaster is in the Bone Spring formation. This has become one of the fastest growing oil regions in North America based on improved technology. Horizontal drilling has enabled local operators to multiply production rates several times. Bone Spring underpins Caza's future production growth. Broadcaster is a low-risk operation with the potential to greatly increase production. See the link of the article: http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/16355
According to the company, all will be flowing before the end of 2014, Robby. More importantly, all 3 of them are in proven and highly de-risked acreage.
So the averaged combined price decreased 12.7% sequentially, but the operating net back remained the same! " The average combined price received by Caza in Q3 2014 decreased 12.7% to US$65.09 per Boe compared to US$74.55 per Boe in Q2 2014. " and here is WHY , again from the company's report: - The Bone Spring Play in the Delaware Basin of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas affords Caza the benefit of generating approximately 80% of its total hydrocarbon production from oil and NGLs. This allows the Company to achieve high internal rates of return (IRR) which may not be afforded by other so called "shale plays". Specifically, the Bone Spring Play is made up of mostly tight, clastic, oil reservoirs, not shale (although several economic shale sections are present throughout the play, including the Avalon), that have historically produced from vertical wells. Caza is merely using unconventional methods to extract the hydrocarbons at much higher rates than would be achieved with conventional methods. Caza believes these characteristics provide an opportunity to achieve acceptable IRRs at commodity prices that are much lower than those that currently exist. Although commodity prices have declined recently, Caza believes that this play continues to be viable, and plans to maintain its current drilling program. - The Company is also protected from the impact of a lower oil price environment by having favorable hedges in place on approximately 75% of the Company's proved developed producing reserves, as well as an on-going hedging strategy in operation as part of the continuous management of its business risk.
The icing on the cake is that three wells in proven acreage with excellent drilling results to date from the neighboring wells will be flowing before year end: 1) Lennox Property, Lea County, New Mexico: The Lennox 32 State Unit #4H horizontal Bone Spring well (the "32-4H well") reached the intended total measured depth of approximately 15,545 feet on September 18, 2014. The scheduled fracture stimulation date of October 16, 2014, has been rescheduled for early December due to an impending casing repair job, which the Company expects to remedy quickly. Caza currently has a 50.00% working interest (approximate 38.98% net revenue interest) in the 32-4H well and the Lennox Property. 2) East Marathon Road Property, Lea County, New Mexico: As announced on October 9, 2014, Caza entered into an exploration and development agreement with a large independent company (the "partner") to acquire a lease comprising 480 gross acres in the heart of the Bone Spring Play and drill an initial test well. The property is referred to as East Marathon Road because of its close proximity to the Company's Marathon Road Property and is on trend with some of Caza's very prolific producing wells including: Marathon Road 15 PA Fed #1H, West Copperline 29 Fed #4H and Broadcaster 29 Fed #3H wells. The initial well, the Igloo 19 State #2H (the "19-2H well") horizontal Bone Spring test well, is currently drilling ahead in the lateral section of the well at 11,238 feet measured depth in the 3rd Bone Spring Sand. Caza is providing 100% of the costs attributable to the partner's 60% working interest in the property for drilling, completing and equipping the well through production facilities to earn a 30% working interest in the lease and property. All costs and expenses thereafter will be borne on a heads-up basis (Caza 30% and partner 30%). 3) Marathon Road/Lynch Property, Lea County, New Mexico: The operator commenced operations on the Marathon Road 15 OB Fed #1H horizontal Bone Spring well on October 6, 2014. The well reached the intended total measured depth of 15,625 feet on November 6, 2014, and is awaiting fracture stimulation. The market will be updated once the well has been fracture stimulated and producing rates stabilize. This well is a direct offset to the very successful Marathon Road 15 PA Fed #1H horizontal Bone Spring well, which had an initial 30 day average of 1,974 Boe/d gross, consisting of 1,721 bbls of oil and 1.52 MMcf of natural gas. Caza currently has a 14.7% working interest (approximate 12.5% net revenue interest) in these wells and the Marathon Road Property.
The net loss is also due to the ONE TIME loss in Q3 from the sale of the properties located in Wharton County. See below: " Net loss Caza incurred a net loss of $ 7,743,772 for the three-month period ended September 30, 2014 as compared to a net loss of $1,370,132 during the comparative period. The larger net loss for the period ended September 30, 2014 occurred for the most part due to the $8,710,713 net loss incurred as a result of the sale of the non-core properties located in Wharton County offset by the $1,153,996 unrealized gain in the fair value of the hedging contracts. On a per boe basis our net loss increased 85% from $37.55 for the period ended September 30, 2013 to $69.58 for the third quarter in 2014. "
despite the drop of the oil price in Q3, thanks to the steep production increase and the efficiency of the operations that keeps the operating netback over $50/boe: _ Caza had a cash and cash equivalents balance of US$7,405,966 as of September 30, 2014, as compared to US$3,944,944 at June 30, 2014. Needless to mention that EBITDA has also been boosted since early 2014.
and the East Marathon Rd well (IGLOO) is in this area and is going to flow soon: - East Marathon Road Property, Lea County, New Mexico: As announced on October 9, 2014, Caza entered into an exploration and development agreement with a large independent company (the "partner") to acquire a lease comprising 480 gross acres in the heart of the Bone Spring Play and drill an initial test well. The property is referred to as East Marathon Road because of its close proximity to the Company's Marathon Road Property and is on trend with some of Caza's very prolific producing wells including: Marathon Road 15 PA Fed #1H, West Copperline 29 Fed #4H and Broadcaster 29 Fed #3H wells. The initial well, the Igloo 19 State #2H (the "19-2H well") horizontal Bone Spring test well, is currently drilling ahead in the lateral section of the well at 11,238 feet measured depth in the 3rd Bone Spring Sand. Caza is providing 100% of the costs attributable to the partner's 60% working interest in the property for drilling, completing and equipping the well through production facilities to earn a 30% working interest in the lease and property. All costs and expenses thereafter will be borne on a heads-up basis (Caza 30% and partner 30%).
These IP-30 rates do not exist anywhere in the Permian Basin. Concho (CXO) the dominant player in the Delaware Basin, has average IP-30 rates at 800-900 boepd, see the presentation. CAZA owns the sweet spot of the play as all the results indicate. You cannot find heavily oil-weighted IP-30 at 1,568 boepd or at 1,974 boepd ANYWHERE IN THE US. - Broadcaster Property, Lea County, New Mexico: The Broadcaster 29 Fed #3H horizontal 3rd Bone Spring well (the "29-3H well") started producing in September 2014. The well produced a 30 day average gross rate of 1,568 bbls of oil equivalent, which is comprised of 1,261 bbls of oil and 1.84 million cubic feet of natural gas. Caza currently has a 25% working interest (approximate 17.63% net revenue interest) in the 29-3H well and the Broadcaster Property, which is adjacent to the Company's prolific West Copperline Property and wells. - Marathon Road/Lynch Property, Lea County, New Mexico: The operator commenced operations on the Marathon Road 15 OB Fed #1H horizontal Bone Spring well on October 6, 2014. The well reached the intended total measured depth of 15,625 feet on November 6, 2014, and is awaiting fracture stimulation. The market will be updated once the well has been fracture stimulated and producing rates stabilize. This well is a direct offset to the very successful Marathon Road 15 PA Fed #1H horizontal Bone Spring well, which had an initial 30 day average of 1,974 Boe/d gross, consisting of 1,721 bbls of oil and 1.52 MMcf of natural gas. Caza currently has a 14.7% working interest (approximate 12.5% net revenue interest) in these wells and the Marathon Road Property.
See the negligible decrease at the company's operating netback in Q3, although the oil price dropped a lot in Q3. From $51.95 to $51.43. NOTHING. This is the definition of efficiency folks. See the excerpt: " Operating net back decreased to US$51.43 for the three month period ended September 30, 2014, from US$51.95 for the comparative period in 2013, due mainly to lower oil prices. · The average oil price received by Caza decreased 21% to US$83.04 per bbl during the three-month period ended September 30, 2014, from US$104.50 per bbl during the comparative period in 2013. · The average natural gas price received by Caza increased 4% to US$3.62 per Mcf during the three-month period ended September 30, 2014, from US$3.48 per Mcf during the comparative period in 2013. "
Based on his latest interview, Ralpha Acampora, the legend of the technical analysis, is VERY BULLISH on oil at the current levels.