Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
@mrcautious yes I do as a matter of fact. Quite out of date now and I need to refresh it to reflect recent placings and disposals in our investee companies. Happy to post once this is done, some patience required I'm afraid. The short version is that the cumulative project potential is more than enough for me to remain invested here, independently of whether or not Amapa happens. DYOR etc...
Agreed @obs, that makes sense. I get the same BRL-USD rate as you (i.e. 3.6) by taking the DIP numbers in BRL from the Cashflow table and dividing them by the USD values from the document.
Any project valuations should surely use current/projected FX rates as well as iron ore prices -- unless of course there are rates and prices that have been locked into agreements (e.g. the DEV JV agreement that we have not seen). Not sure how and where to allow for any such locks but I'll consider it as I work through the numbers.
Hello @obs
Progress is slow I'm afraid, I have zero time to spend on this during the week and only limited time at weekends.
I did start transcribing the balance sheet from the PRJ yesterday, but there are quite a few numbers that are difficult to decipher. The cashflow sheet is even less legible. I've requested clean copies from KDNC directly.
On 24 Jan you wrote: "You'll probably be aware that by using a USD to BRL of 5.47 rather than that used in the JRP of 3.6 on the second page you've implicitly reduced the sale price of the ore from $61/t to $40/t. (61 * 5.47 / 3.6)". I don't see that rate explicitly mentioned in the document, on page 2 or elsewhere. Can you give me a specific paragraph reference please?
@obs yes the FX rate on page 2 is current -- that's just one of what will become several variable inputs in the final model. But you are right to point out that for the JRP baseline I should use the USD-BRL rate from the document.
@obs thanks for the feedback and sensible questions. I've started to rebuild my model based on the (blurry) financials in the JRP. This will provide a more accurate basis for NPV calculations and projected SP based on iron ore price, extended life-of-mine etc. First step is the P&L (link here, in BRL and USD: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ShKK6AHKtcQ-LA27UtLQsWjindhuGPJN/view?usp=sharing). There are some minor rounding errors but I think it's a fairly accurate transcription. Tax is accounted for in this table, as are interest payments -- but there is no separate line for debt repayment. It may be "bundled" in one of the other lines, I will need to analyse the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow first to figure that out -- transcriptions to follow.
I'm inclined to agree @obs, my values are close to yours. You'll find detailed workings in the linked document. Page 1 uses iron ore price of $120 per tonne (implied SP £6 at 49% ownership), page 2 uses $180 per tonne (implied SP £11 at 49% ownership). Both pages include SP calculation based on values provided in the 31 Aug 2019 RNS. Very happy for people to point out errors I might have made. The biggest risk here seems to be whether the whole thing gets off the ground at all. For now at least I see no reason for that not to happen, albeit with some delay. But then we are used to delay with this share...
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EGN1PjTDBPvsdo3CkA9ZZRaSmENcVy6a/view?usp=sharing
_Tintin_ I would assume that most or even all the "Nominees" listed are PI holdings and therefore potentially to be traded at some point. Now that our Russian friend has dropped below 3% we do not know whether she is still in or not. By my count therefore, there are are between 91.5m and 99.5m shares that could change hands in regular trading, or about 17% of the shares in issue. Slightly more liquid than your calcs.
Readmission Document p17: "It is the intention of the Directors to pay dividends, however, the ability of the Company to do so is dependent on a number of factors and there is no guarantee that the Company will pay a dividend, or, if a dividend is paid, what the amount of such dividend will be." Readmission Document p22: "13 Dividend Policy The Board intends to adopt a progressive dividend policy. Assuming that sufficient distributable reserves are available at the time, the Board intends to target the declaration of an annual dividend of approximately 50 per cent. of the Group’s free cash- defined as the net cash generated from operations after the payment of all corporate, operational and acquisition costs. The Company may revise its dividend policy from time to time."
All fair points Bampster. At least we have the information now. On a positive note, I've been working out potential dividend yield. * RTO documents show GIS £236k free cash for the 6 months to Sep 2014. * Significant growth in transaction volumes indicated since then (OCT RNS in January and April) * It's probably safe to assume at least £500k free cash at year end (i.e. Mar 2015), possibly as much as £800k * RTO documents ("Unaudited Pro Forma Statement of Net Assets of the Enlarged Group") show free cash £803k (this confirms the upper range on the previous line) * The dividend policy suggests half of this amount might be distributed as dividends * Based on a post-RTO share price of 2p this gives an anticipated yield of 3.6%, putting OCT in the top 60 dividend payers on AIM. Not a bad outcome if they can make it work and make it sustainable...
Bampster - knowing your appetite for due diligence, I can only assume that you have read through the 30-odd RTO documents that are available on the OCT web site. http://www.octagonalplc.com/corporate-information It seems to me that most of the long-standing questions about GIS are answered in those documents. What am I missing?
And so it ends. I'm very glad I bailed from here a year ago - hopefully nobody here is tied up by the suspension. http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/12362052.html Press Release 22 May 2015 Naibu Global International Company Plc ("Naibu", the "Company" or the "Group") Resignation of Nominated Adviser Further to the announcement made on 29 April 2015, the non-executive Directors of Naibu have now initiated steps with their Chinese legal advisers to regain control of the Group's Chinese operating subsidiary and its associated bank accounts. However, the non-executive Directors do not believe that the Company will be in a position to request lifting of its suspension within the six months' period prescribed by AIM Rule 41, which ends on 10 July 2015. In the circumstances, ZAI Corporate Finance Limited has resigned as Nominated Adviser to the Company. The Directors do not believe that it will be possible to appoint another nominated adviser and so, in accordance with AIM Rule 1, anticipate that its quotation will be cancelled on 22 June 2015. Following cancellation of the AIM quotation, the non-executive Directors will release updates on progress via the RNS reach service. They will consider instituting a private dealing facility for the shares in due course if it is appropriate, although there can be no certainty that this will be put in place.
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/12334635.html Press Release 29 April 2015 Naibu Global International Company Plc ("Naibu", the "Company" or the "Group") Update Further to the announcement made on 18 February 2015, the non-executive Directors of Naibu have been unable to obtain the co-operation of Huoyan Lin, the Executive Chairman of Naibu, to progress the appointment of KPMG to review the financial position of the Group. They have therefore appointed Fangda Partners, a leading Chinese law firm, to initiate legal action to gain control of the Chinese operating subsidiary of the Group and the associated bank accounts. To cover the initial costs of this action, the non-executive Directors, on behalf of the Company, have raised loans from a number of shareholders. The non-executive Directors are aware of the press reports that Huoyan Lin has been imprisoned since November 2014. They believe these to be untrue and confirm that they have had a number of telephone conversations and email exchanges with Mr Lin during this period. He has, however, refused to cooperate with the non-executive Directors. Accordingly, the non-executive Directors have terminated the employment contracts of Huoyan Lin, executive Chairman and Congdeng Lin, Vice President of Production, although they remain as statutory directors of the Company for the time being. The Company's shares will remain suspended. Further announcements will be made as the legal work progresses. - Ends - Apart from the above, there is no further information available at the current time. Naibu Global International Company Plc Giles Elliott, Non-Executive Deputy Chairman Tel: +44 (0) 20 7776 6550 ZAI Corporate Finance Limited Tel: +44 (0) 20 7060 2220 Daniel Stewart & Company Tel: +44 (0) 20 7776 6550
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/12319562.html
Evocutis Plc announces that it has raised £1,500,000, gross of expenses, through the issue of 375 million new shares of 0.01p each in the Company ("Placing Shares") at a placing price of 0.4 pence per share. Each Placing Share carries a warrant, which entitles the holder to subscribe for one new ordinary share in the Company at 0.4 pence per share up to 31 December 2015. Application is being made for the Placing Shares, which will, on issue, rank pari passu with the existing Ordinary Shares, to be admitted to trading on AIM and such admission is expected to occur on or around 12 December 2014. The Company will therefore have 724,675,828 Ordinary Shares in issue with voting rights and admitted to trading on AIM. This figure may be used by shareholders in the Company as the denominator for the calculation by which they will determine if they are required to notify their interest in, or a change to their interest in, the share capital of the Company under the Financial Conduct Authority's Disclosure and Transparency Rules. David Lenigas, the Company's Chairman commented: "This placing will significantly boost the Company's balance sheet as we pursue the Company's stated investing policy to invest in and/or acquire companies and/or projects within the natural resources sector with the potential for growth." http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/12175771.html
Amazing indeed. I'm still glad to be out for the moment - too unpredictable!
All valid points okenia. I still haven't understood why DL stood down from PLMO only to take up with EVO. Why couldn't he carry on with PLMO and do there whatever it is he supposedly now plans to do here? There must be some subtle difference between the vehicles for him to want to change ride, but I haven't pinned it down. We already know it's not investment policy, as that can be changed easily enough (you point to OCT as the perfect example of this). Thoughts?
I'm starting to think that the game of chess is being played on a larger board, over a longer timeframe, with more dimensions, than any of us have envisaged until now. Time to reevaluate methinks, taking a step back to see the bigger picture.
I came in on Friday morning at 0.37 and left again on Monday at 0.8 thinking the peak was close. It did in fact dip but then carried on to 1.2. For me this was a very rare incursion for me into the unknown realm of day-trading - like okenia, I typically research thoroughly and then invest to hold long. Still, I'm happy I made £12k, and don't regret missing the extra £6k I could have made had I called the continued rise. I now expect the SP will drift back to somewhere between 0.2 and 0.3 before the AGM Once the proposed motions are approved, and placing is complete, I'll probably buy in again with some of my profits, based on the same rationale that made me buy last Friday - namely that DL has a good track record, and this is a rare opportunity to get in early on one of his new ventures.
I just read the summary you posted yesterday of likely future steps based on observed actions in DL's other shells. Succinct and informative as always! I totally agree with your logic, I came to the same conclusion on Thu night and bought here on Fri morning. Looking forward to another DL ride...
hi cunners, see yesterday's RNS - "Subject to a proposed Capital Reorganisation, the Company intends to raise £210,000 before expenses by means of a subscription for 175,000,000 New Ordinary Shares at 0.12p per share and it intends to utilise those funds in connection with implementing a proposed New Investing Policy for the Company, further details of the Capital Reorganisation, the Subscription and the New Investing Policy are set out below." [...] "It is expected that Admission will become effective and dealings in the Subscription Shares will commence on or about 15 September 2014."