Member Info for Tracylied

9th September was the last time it was rolled.

I guess that 250k rollover is still out there. I assume that the MMs have there eye on it. They certainly need the stock.

The figures are absolutely in line with how these reports go. Realistically though the growth will be exponential certainly for 5 years China. 5G will trigger at different times in different locations. Likely years 3-8 will be the big growth.
H2 2021 it will start slow for sure. It is already possible to support a small volume of devices using cores alone. I believe that SmartNICs will be added as users are added.
I can understand why they wouldn't hang their butts out for a spanking.
I on the other hand hang mine based on what I see.

Don't forget the requirements in the core and tier two. When they say users they are thinking phones but it is not just phones. Devices will be a much larger market as each person can have many devices and 1 phone.

I see Ethernity as too complex and embedded for a takeover for the technology. However for pure financial return I think £100m would be the absolute minimum.
I don't want to see it but it may happen. To mitigate it I have shares sub 20p that I never thought I would have. As the SP climbs that figure advances.
I have done the maths inside and out the figure for 2022 is ignoring any growth in China just initial deployment.
The assumption over users is also fundamentally flawed.
So a mast and server are at Beijing Station. It hits 50k mobile users at rush hour. So 5 SmartNICs. Those 50k go to the office 5 SmartNICs in different places. They go home 5 SmartNICs in different places. The actual requirement is much larger depending on the flow of users who are of course mobile. Yes the mobile network connects to 5G but the point is that it connects close to the device.

And the elephant in the room they are only looking at China. The last two events were Russia and India.

Crazy projections but I see why that would be their stance. Based upon what we know already $6m looks very low for 2021 and is reliant on no further contracted business. However the income won't be from contracted business but through third parties. Even if they are moderately successful it will amount to £5m on H2 2021. We already know that they have half of that coming from existing business. Typically tech ramp up demonstrates exponential growth from release. In the region of 10x escalation. I think that 5G will be just the same.
I think that the bit they miss is that for each 10000 they need a SmartNIC but that is not quite true because there are thousands or hundreds of thousands of locations. People don't stay on the same mast and range is super short as bandwidth is huge and penetration is poor.
I know that they won't be printing this stuff but if H1 2021 doesn't bag £20m something has gone very wrong.
I get that if it was too off the wall they won't attract serious investors but believe me I won't be far away.

Overwhelming buying again today 130k+ excess on the buy. MMs will have to let this run soon. Selling now is crazy. News from China over the next 3-4 months will fuel significant rises. One item about adoption leading to mass deployment will trigger a major leg up. Ethernity are in the ring for contracts through multiple avenues. Chinas three major telecom will be using fpga SmartNICs and at least one is using ACEnic-100. Mass deployment starts in about 9 months. Leading in we'll have OEMs and integrators engaged and serious indicators over volume and schedule.

Hurrah at last. 24 hours ago I set out to invest 4500. It took 3 trades only 2 show as UT.
Exhausting.

I have 12228 shares in auction lets see if it gets filled. Not holding my breath.

So yesterday I put in an order to buy £4500 at market. So far 2010 shares has filled at 18.4p. It is not easy buying from outside the UK. Hope the rest fills today

Just 5 MMs left in. WINS the most interested hunting shares at 17p. Just 2 now on 19 then little to stop 20p. 6-10% is very sustainable

Dallo in my opinion it became inevitable when China decided to Open the connection to the 5G network. This is what provided Ethernity the market to dominate. The bulk of the competitors were on the other side of the fence. Rather than adapt they froze. Now they have to catch up. To do so they will take completed parts of the jigsaw that are tested out. Ethernity have completed a whole end to end section just leaving the OEMs to brand and create unique features to boost sales.
The next question is will the world follow. Yesterday we learnt that India is looking at what's going on in China and will head the same way (the OEM thinks).
I believe that even places apparently contracted to Ericsson, Nokia and the like will still Open up connection to the network.
Assuming that happens and OEMs lisenced to Ethernity are successful then Ethernity will have long term income from the royalty attached to the firmware and software. Every time the function is adapted or redesigned Ethernity will be engaged to do the work. This will in time evolve to off the peg solutions. This will be the new R&D requirement moving forward.
Once the network is connected it opens up a massive market to Ethernity. Especially their UEP which is ready to go for edge applications.
In this journey so far they have called the destination perfectly but the route and timing was slightly out. The good news is that steps 2,3 and 4 is already complete. Just waiting for step 1 to make it all happen.

This is how I see it.
This year revenue £2m
Next year and £7m (2+5)
2022 £70m (20+50) resulting in a dividend of £20m
2023 China in mass deployment and India, Europe and USA early stages £???m. More than 500m for sure including mass revenue from royalties.

Even at very low turnover the margin is 85%. Once the base costs are covered and with volume 95% is very possible

01234 the beauty of this model is the near 100% margin. It really is rinse and repeat. Solutions are adapted with little work. Mainly counters and local quirks like date and time formats and language. The hardware will be built by the OEMs. Ethernity simply provide the model and sell the license to produce. The staff requirements will be minimal.

It seems that the contract today is very specific and allows the OEM to use Ethernity firm, soft and hardware. Assuming that the product is successful we'll see chunky sales over the next couple of years.

Ask how could they let it go like that. The MMs would be left exposed to it reversing tomorrow. It will go but will move up in a low volume ++buying environment. They need to be settled that they won't be dropped.

Looks like my buy went unfilled. I will put a couple of thousand in auction tomorrow morning and see what happens.

Balance of the 50k at 16p now showing at 18.5p.Hopefully they learn from that.