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Took an early nose dive but seems to be bouncing up towards 108p. Must be people selling on the news.
I think this is a medium term hold. Get clear of loan repayments, show progress on the 5YP of 100m EBITDA and we're laughing. I can see this being 200p by the end of 2024.
CARD haven't issued quarterly updates in recent years, news is often quite minimal.
You might not hear anything until the Half Year in September.
However, they have given trading updates to go with key events e.g. debt refinancing/repayments.
Is this the vesting of the 2019 grant (performance period end 31 Jan 22)? Timing would be a about right as the results are finalised. Linked to EBITDA & OFCF vesting conditions. Surely a good sign if they are meeting the targets...
Wow, some incredible positives to take from today's RNS
Big NAV increases, which we are currently trading below. Whilst not cash profit, it is great to know the vessels would generate a positive return if sold.
It's the dividend cover for me that is really good at 4x. That's money either coming into our pockets or being reinvested
I think we will see this keep ticking up over coming weeks even if its a few p per week. Very pleased to have topped up in the low 50s after the baffling drop on results.
I can see it playing out similar to Luceco or Lookers. Again, way oversold but due to "accounting anomalies." Fundamentally strong businesses once clear of those overhanging clouds - not dissimilar to Card and their debt which we are expecting to be clear from in the not too distant future. Luceco went 33p to 500p, Lookers went 11p to 74p. Will card go 28p to 200p? Who knows, but I believe the upside risk is many times greater than the downside risk.
Sold out in 2 weeks.
If demand holds constant, that means they could have sold 6.5x more product during the 13 weeks in the quarter
If that's the case, we could be looking at a lot more than 48% quarterly revenue growth...
We only own 30% of the project having paid c. 3M GBP. How are we going to covert this to 100% ?
I was expecting an RTO of NGM and maybe some warrants or options to raise cash for drilling.
Although I guess the current approach might allow a couple of phases of funding - hoping it maintains momentum
Neighbouring licenses:
ASX: Liontown Resources. SP from 3c in 2019 to $1.72 in 2021. +5700%
ASX: Bellvue Gold. SP from 2c in 2016 to 88c in 2021. + 4400%
See also..... St Barbara, Ramelius Resources, Bulletin Resources, Kula Gold
It's one to put in the bottom drawer for me. While I can see the restlessness of holders (particularly those who bought in high after the RTO), the potential here exists in that we have a company with integrated supply chain (Materia) that could launch into any number of European countries not just dependent upon UK legislative changes. Once one goes it will be like dominos in quick succession and Kanabo is best placed to capitalise
Nothing that I'm aware of!
Thanks Dan, interesting input. Especially to see some investor objectivity given these forums are often full of blowing smoke up each others' backsides!
Yes on second review I agree r.e. Cash flow (I confused the 8m repayment with the 8m other income) but I think we don't see eye to eye on the Director's report. The Directors are responsible for maximising shareholder value so I think it is expected that their choice of wording is carefully optimised - notwithstanding the fine line that could push it to manipulation.
For me, understanding the debt structure and repayment plan is most useful. On that basis, my Directors Report would have been more granular as to cash generation, comparison to normalised trading activity, how this compares to the repayment plan etc. However, it may be the case that this is very challenging to articulate clearly without speculation.
Overall neutral feelings from me. The post Christmas update might have to be the acid test
Hi Dan
I'm just thinking about "Drop dead" events and assessing if the Group is well clear of these, which the FS and audit opinions would seem to indicate. That aside, based on historical results, benefits of COVID related cost control measures plus future expansion activities (online, x-selling, gifting etc) should ensure a healthy medium to long term future. I don't think this is an immediate turnaround, as institutional investors might want to see a period of stable results. For me, 8m of cash generation from a shortened period during which debt was also repaid isn't bad going. Let's also consider the H2 weighting which will likely be much greater.
With reference to your comments about fraud, I disagree. The auditor must review the Directors report to ensure it is materially consistent with the results. Additionally, many companies have this disclosure reviewed by legal teams and advisors to ensure compliance. If it was fraudulent to manage the tone of the Directors report (e.g. optimistic v cautious, talking about the future v past, talking about certain segments more than others) then I think you'd need to put most company directors in jail.
When you say "our CEO" is that meaning you're an employee, an investor or both?
Appreciate your input into this healthy debate
Stuck in the doldrums at bit at the moment, but looking at the SP history it has had some recent highs and lows. For me, to get this moving in the right direction we need (1) Materia acquisition confirmed (2) Some runs on the board for sales (3) *most importantly* UK and European softening of regulations.
3 would be a lit match to the powder keg