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Good post Telegraphist.
There are a few new names, suddenly posting optimistic messages about confidence in the spiel SAVP are putting out and the timelines. I would ask those people to carefully read back through the other optimistic messages and missed deadlines.
A wider question .. why is there no progress in Niger? When is first oil? Why is this taking years? It seems to me that despite SAVP’s statements, it cannot be commercially viable at this point (no trucks, no roads, no refinery capacity .. whatever reason) .. otherwise I do not understand why we are not pumping oil yet.
All the new folks preaching patience, but I bought on a 10 year plan. But 3 years into it there has been no significant progress and halving of the SP.
I’m Holding .. but not happy!
Kalan, Many of us did pile everything we could afford in here .. at about 40p
Zibrahimovic .. Sorry, I don't get what you are predicting / forecasting .. can you spell it out please?
"Looking at his/her posting history its clear to see the agenda.....virtually all posts are de-ramping for entry....."
Valhalla, it seems quite unlikely to me .. do you think he has dragged the SP down by 50% by a few postings on billboards?
It would be better for potential investors to recognize a 50% drop over the last week (albeit from a spike) and understand the reason ...
If this share is 'guaranteed' to go up 20p - like some people on this board are suggesting - then why would sophisticated investors such as fund managers be selling out at a huge loss? Does anyone really believe that?
(For the record, I'm a holder, and at a huge loss)
A lot of new people have suddenly appeared, and are ramping the share price all of a sudden, spouting reasons why shares have to go up.
DYOR, it could be a classic pump and dump. If you are thinking of investing, be very wary and don't accept what you read here as facts. If someone thinks the SP has to have parity with Nasdaq on 8th April, find out why that is.
Thanks Retour .. I hope you're right. But everything is highly unlikely until it happens .. this is AIM
Beware .. although I hope people are right, it doesn't have to catch up to the US listing .. the US listing can just as easily drop ...
" … What's not to like?"
.. the share price?
I agree Hazdogg .. why would they put that in, if there isn't a material risk that 3rd parties will impact the sign-off timelines?
I know a lot of people will have their rose coloured specs on and say that its nothing, but my experience of RNSs is that they tend to undersell bad news.
I'm a holder - I also believe that the 7 deal is the right move, and that Niger on its own is too risky - but I am worried about how long it is taking ot get the deal over the line.
thanks happysparrow .. I might be wrong here - but didn't someone post that the pipeline is not going ahead (at least not currently).?
I should of clarified .. your answer confirms that trucking IS feasible! ??
Cheers Zengas .. we will have to truck until a pipeline is built somewhere. My understanding is that the plans for pipeline is on hold, or being frustrated. I assume a pipeline is at least 5 years away. I think the cost runs into the billions, so we wont be paying for one ourselves.
There is no existing pipeline with capacity, so I don’t see any other option .. and am not sure it is even feasible.
Does anyone know of any companies that have successfully made money by trucking oil to refineries over a long period of time?
Does anyone know the logistics for SAVP doing so from the ARB? (length of journey, kind of roads, expected costs, etc)
Based on what the SP is doing (i.e. nothing), it seems to me that the following paragraph from the RNS "It should be noted that whilst the vast majority of steps detailed in the Implementation Agreement are procedural, the cooperation of certain third parties will be required to implement the Transaction which the Company is confident will be forthcoming." suggests that the Company does NOT have much confidence in the cooperation of third parties..
I listened in, but was working at the same time, so couldn't pay too much attention. My brief take:
Overall AK sounded really positive on both parts of the business .. particularly so on the Nigerian / Gas side, with its revenue generation.
Of course his job is to sound positive! .. He did confirm he was taking up his 0.5m warrants (and he is pretty heavily invested already), so that if a good sign.
Without referencing it directly, he did sound bemused about the current share price, when he discussed warrants, potential share buy-backs, listing on AIM (no plans to move) etc.
He confirmed the new investor picked up 40m shares in the open market, over the last 3-4 months. I cant believe the SP dropped in that time (the cynical me thinks some market manipulation might have occurred to hold down the price). Also the investor had an exemption, so they didn't have to declare until the5% threshold was reached - not the usual 3%
Overall good presentation, I wish I was able to focus more, and look forward to others posting more detailed updates than I have managed.
.. I think below 3% it is not notifiable, therefore they would not have to declare and position below that. So they could have been holding 24m (2.99%)
Then bought 16m, to take them to 5% - which is their first notifiable position.
.. I am not an expert .. could be wrong, but wondering how they managed to pick up 40m without influencing the SP.
.. even 16m is a lot!
They may not have bought 40m .. they may have held up to 24m previously, which they did not need to notify.
It is still good that they are buying however.
Dibs .. yes I agree price is a disaster, but nothing the company can do about that. But good news that production is up, and that hey are getting a better than market price. Other than that, we need to ride out the storm. Diversification is also good in the long term.
In two years this has the potential to be absolutely massive
mmm .. massive enough to recoup my losses I wonder?