The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Yes Ruck and good for them ! What a fine result Burnley had, walloping Sheffield United the other day. Come on Burnley !
WTP - I think that Sath was a 'Panel member' rather than 'Presenting'. But hopefully he had some useful interactions anyway!
It feels like 'all hands on deck' and the 'quiet' is a bit strange. Who knows what's afoot, or not?
Hi jb. Again.
I don't see your response as a fair comment. Reconsider - one might wish to make a contribution, i.e. something other than understandable but never ending observation of the 'long' wait for news. That's it. Have fun. BFN
Jb - thanks for the explanation. I see you post only infrequently - we could really do with more of your brilliant stuff.
However, unabashedly, I'll post similar whenever I choose, if that's ok? GN.
Thanks jb. And your point is ?
With the strengthening and the widening of Team Scancell, the indications have suggested, until this recent dearth, that Scancell's IR was improving. I don't think the Team has suddenly got worse so it's a bit of a mystery, but then, 'twas ever thus.
Feeling thwarted as ever, myself that is, I think a better reference point for any despair, or panic, is this list from Bermuda over there. I think that No. 13 was added by Inan, but E.& O.E.
"Thanks to Bermuda, his 7909 over there:-
"Here are some items of potential news. Some are obviously much more important than others but in terms of building the flow of positive news could still contribute:-
1) Recruitment to SCIB1 cohort of current trial complete and last patient dosed
2) Confirmation that the 70% threshold has been met and therefore this arm of the trial is a success. If the ORR is maintained at 85% then that would be fantastic but I hope expectations won't be raised too high - the 70% is enough.
3) Presentation of these results at ASCO (would also be good to see participation at ESMO too)
4) Progress updates from the iSCIB1+ cohort
5) Recruitment complete for iSCIB1+
6) Top line results for iSCIB1+
7) Confirmation that pre IND meetings with the FDA have taken place and were successful thereby giving a clear development pathway forwards for SCIB1/iSCIB1
8) Clearance of IND and MHRA approval for the phase II/II SCIB1 trial
9) Details of the investigators for the phase II/III - particularly if Scancell have managed to secure any big US names
10) Confirmation that Genmab intend to take Scancell's mAb into the clinic and clearance of the IND. This should trigger a milestone but much more importantly it validates the Glymab platform for any others who may be evaluating other mAbs
11) Further Glymab deals
12) Addition of new mAbs
13) First patient dosed in phase II/III trial
I'll stop there. As I said earlier, the big unknown is what happens re. the Redmile CLNs and whether they can get a decent funding away. Certainly it will be easier if they manage to deliver on the above."
And there you have it, as Freddie said . . . . . ?
Nil desperandum . . . . ATB
In 7914 : "I had left out Moditope and Avidimab. If we get any significant news from either then that's a bonus."
Plenty to wait for then . . . .
Thanks to Bermuda, his 7909 over there:-
"Here are some items of potential news. Some are obviously much more important than others but in terms of building the flow of positive news could still contribute:-
1) Recruitment to SCIB1 cohort of current trial complete and last patient dosed
2) Confirmation that the 70% threshold has been met and therefore this arm of the trial is a success. If the ORR is maintained at 85% then that would be fantastic but I hope expectations won't be raised too high - the 70% is enough.
3) Presentation of these results at ASCO (would also be good to see participation at ESMO too)
4) Progress updates from the iSCIB1+ cohort
5) Recruitment complete for iSCIB1+
6) Top line results for iSCIB1+
7) Confirmation that pre IND meetings with the FDA have taken place and were successful thereby giving a clear development pathway forwards for SCIB1/iSCIB1
8) Clearance of IND and MHRA approval for the phase II/II SCIB1 trial
9) Details of the investigators for the phase II/III - particularly if Scancell have managed to secure any big US names
10) Confirmation that Genmab intend to take Scancell's mAb into the clinic and clearance of the IND. This should trigger a milestone but much more importantly it validates the Glymab platform for any others who may be evaluating other mAbs
11) Further Glymab deals
12) Addition of new mAbs
13) First patient dosed in phase II/III trial
I'll stop there. As I said earlier, the big unknown is what happens re. the Redmile CLNs and whether they can get a decent funding away. Certainly it will be easier if they manage to deliver on the above."
Good stuff ! Thanks again Bermuda . . . .
Hi Bazooka, thanks. I venture we've seen that before . . . then as now, it seemed odd to me that CFO is going, as it does seem to be a scientific conference. The "VP Head of Business Development, Oncology R&D, AstraZeneca" is also sitting on that Panel?
Also just to note that Sath as CFO and Prof. Lindy as CEO are shown as the only Executive Directors for Scancell now that SA has moved on.
Good luck to Sath at the Chicago Waldorf ! And GLA.
Dragon - whilst Paul 23.01 is quite right about 'IMO', I agree very much with your 01.42 re. the motivation behind all his posts. As I've no time to waste on this I'll filter him.
I remain optimistic and am looking forward to news !
Enjoyed that Moonparty and yes your maths are wrong, (as you know).
But all good fun - and we finish for the weekend in blue !
It's the weekend - Andrew Bridgen was making some dramatic comment in Parliament yesterday re. mRNA vaccines. Worth a watch ? https://youtu.be/z4oSLajsHrY
I noticed this a few days ago on PoG - Inan 7839. I'm guessing It's Trinity Delta's previous attempt to put a value BACK THEN on Scancell at SP 30p on a measly 10% chance of success !
""Why is everyone stressed ?
Scancell Holdings PLC - Addressable Market Opportunity. As stated earlier, the overall cancer immuno-therapy market was estimated at $86bn in annual revenues in CY2021 – forecast to increase to $272bn by CY2030 – a 13.6% CAGR – substantially ahead of the 8.2% CAGR for the overall oncology market.
From a financial perspective, one of the factors with the greatest appeal is the wide number of solid cancers the company could potentially address across its 4 platforms – over 10 – ranging from head and neck cancer, to triple negative breast cancer, colorectal cancer, renal cancer, ovarian cancer, malignant melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, prostate cancer, bladder cancer, pancreatic cancer, small cell lung cancer, et al.
If one considers the incidence rate of these various indications across just 7 key markets – the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Switzerland, Australia and Japan – and after appropriately adjusting for expression rate, diagnosis rate, compliance rate, the addressable patient population is between 550,000 – 600,000 patients (across these 7 markets.
Translating this into a revenue opportunity depends on the mode of treatment elected – for instance chemotherapy and radiation is much cheaper than using check point inhibitors and antibody drug conjugates. Our revenue estimates have been built up by indication with estimates for the United States, versus other markets. To illustrate an example, we estimate the revenue opportunity for Modi-1 alone would be around $9bn in annual revenue (across the 4 indications of head and neck cancer, triple negative breast cancer, renal cancer and ovarian cancer).
Depending on the market share assumed – every 10-percentage point market share equates to $900m in annual revenue – just on the Modi 1 platform alone. As stated in the investment summary, we think there is potential (if all ducks line up) for the peak annual revenue opportunity (across platforms / indications) to be around US$12 bn.
From an opportunity perspective, the biggest value drivers are Modi – 1 and Modi – 2, given that they target so many indications, followed by the mAbs (SC129, SC134, SC88 and SC27). Both Modi – 1 and Modi – 2 could potentially deliver $3bn in peak annual revenues, if all goes well. Adjusted with even a 10% chance of success, this implies around $600m – more than 3x the current market capitalization of the company""
Why indeed ? But I'm guessing stress would be reduced somewhat if SP was actually 30 pence.
Thanks Inan for a nice reminder. Just asking the question, just for fun, if success should be 100%, does that mean a potential MCap of $6 billion?
I'm dreaming on. Back in my box now. GLA
Over there, courtesy of Marcus . . one of 3 Companies on a One2One Forum, 29th May, 6pm at the Chesterfield Mayfair Hotel, (in Mayfair).
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/444?
hTTps://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/444?viewSource=TwitterUK
Cheer up Rob . . .
C11 - I agree. An address to an audience is far better than a Poster although some Attendees will no doubt pick out a particular Poster from the program, visit and ask questions.
Yes hard on the heels of AACR last week. Good !
'but' not 'nut' . . .
On 'PoG or PoS' thread over there, an interesting discussion between Inan and Bermuda about the timing of possible interest arising from the SCIB1 / iSCIB1+ trials.
To expand on previous comment, the thread I politely call PoG is actually, "Pot of Gold OR Pot of S*** "
Firmly the former in my view of course - nut not just yet. GLA
Thanks Burble. I had wondered if you were the long lamented Puritas who was one of many other Posters missing now!
Likewise - "nearly 13 years it’s been and still waiting for something transformative to happen." GLA
Burble 16.12 - re. "it just seems to have fallen a bit flat" - I agree absolutely. Re. 14 years, your identity shows an 11 year history? May I ask if you used to post under another name? Just curiosity? Whatever, sincere thanks for all your contributions here.
Re. Redx - some great posts in this discussion but I agree with EE, - "the exit route here is a corporate deal" . . . . but maybe only for a single platform and as Buddha suggests, "it will land with a bang".
Cleaner, thanks for the 'Fierce' link and whilst it's disappointing to see no mention of Scancell, 'Fierce' is 'fluff' in this process. IMO it's really the personal interactions between CEO and Pharma that we cannot be told about that will move us forward . . . we just don't know what may be going on. Remember CEO's earlier report of a comment from Moderna.
Dalester 18.36 - agree with your perspective on meets such as AACR but at the very least, I was hoping for prompt if bland comment from team Scancell after the event. I am surprised that with the 'beefed up' team, we have not had that yet . . . but there may be good reasons for the quiet. We'll see.
I've added Kash to Drac in my filter. GLA
Thanks Iofas. I got sleep as I'm BST + 6 hrs !
I very much doubt if anything I post here will affect the SP in any way at all. Just recounting some thoughts. ATB