Member Info for Tornadotony

SP

Are you investing in clay rare earth production? I am certainly not. If you are, I will have to recalibrate SP being towards DP.

Tony

At least this is not in Mexico and is not Fresnillo. They have lost 32% so far this year and it look like it could fall further. Fortunately not holding that one.

Https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-08-03/slowly-then-all-once

Hopefully nobody here did this on Nanoco trading.

Theo

In July 2020 I bought Pensana at 22p. I traded the pants off Pensana and the net result was like my selling out at 205p in March 2020. A lot of people gained on Paul Atherley's aspirations. Not many stocks gain 10 fold. I then re-entered a new position more as an investor than trader in 2021, although a few trades on strong rallies were having an overweight put in then taken off when a top was appearing. In essence Paul Atherley provides opportunities and has a long history of over egging puddings to juice up the SP and it often works and some people will trade it and do so successfully.

Theo, I would look out for new opportunities elsewhere then having such an obsession about PA..

A lot to do beforehand. Resources into reserves and permitting. Ramula an open pit is likely to be the first area for Kenya mining. It could be similar project to the new Tanzania mine just built. Infrastructure to support a mining workforce has to be worked out, along with water and energy utilisation. The mine build could start in 2025 and may using some cash flow plus 40% might be through a loan. Ramula pit shell has been worked out for both 1500 and 1700 gold prices. The costing were estimated for all of West Kenya combined but it is clear that without a JV, Shanta would develop mines in a sequential process with underground projects arriving much later on. Ramula is forecast to have the lowest cost capex to bring on line in comparison to mine builds at other WK camps.

Something is brewing in the equity markets after USA Fitch downgrading.

I have to agree with the analysts for a change. Low end at 99p and a target at 105-106p.

Finally the permit has arrived. Great news.

The first step in all of this is to see how the vote goes. The majority of us are awaiting what the democratic process delivers. After Brexit I would never underestimate how voting may go despite my own personal bias.

One result could be if all the Board stays except for Brian Tenner or all of them are returned, but the recrimination internally erupts and the CEO finds that after getting staff support he has in fact lost respect and in his own perspective it feels a pyrrhic victory and decides to stand down.

Staff may not have liked the escapade behind pay walls, the avoidance of dealing with mistakes that may have occurred, the waste of time and money of going through all of this because of ignoring shareholders questions or just the overwhelming impression that the CEO is being carried by everybody else and they question the added value he delivers in his role and about his style of leadership. We do not know what kind of charisma Brian Tenner has with own staff and whether it is strong or weak that he has created at the company. The fate of that outcome also becomes known this month. If Brian Tenner has the confidence and support of all around him then he soldiers on with a few scars that he won't wish to add more.

Hopefully it is not bad news on the validations and is not being held back. Holding it back until after the vote will generate a far greater problem that the company has then created for itself again by how it looks to others and how it may motivate energies on new complaints. Hopefully they have the intelligence to understand the logic of that point. The opposite of course is that good news is being engineered after the vote to create a better platform that the company is serious about what they have communicated and reveal genuine hard work and creativity that has been delivered and give everyone confidence after giving their support.

However critical some of us are with Tariq Hamoodi and his requisitioners they have placed the executive team at Nanoco in the last chance saloon. They have put them on notice. They may also learned a great deal in not how to do certain things. The only way to learn how to do things right is sometimes to experience how not to do it. There is an art in strategic methodology in achieving objectives and that is something Tariq Hamoodi to take note of.

The CFO was on board with what a lot was delivered along with a host of staff involved in a cost efficiency drive involving $150M per annum. All of those teams deserve credit as well.

As for Centamin in the past and what it is now. Well a leader can look good when they extract what is good at the time and leave a polluted mess behind as they do not get care about the inheritance to others. It is the leader who is a builder who is not the emperor in his own kingdom, has a vision of leaving behind value, excepts criticism and feedback as it generates an environment of creativity and efficiency, has the strength (and humour) in that role supporting development of others is the true and better leader as they leave behind the aspiration in others of an example of being the best they can be. Tony

Https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wheels-come-stong-jobs-myth-job-openings-drop-2-year-low-number-hires-plunge-quits-soar

So far holding support line and remains with a daily reverse head and shoulders pattern. USD now heavily overbought.

I am not sure if anyone has a contact in LOAM to ask if they agree with what Brian tenner said last week regarding the call. If they were happy to say his recollection was absolutely correct then the only other issue is about competing business plans. One of which returns 30% of our money from 36/37p at least.

Allowing for mined out reserves thus far, the company has around 550,000 in reserve ounce in Tanzania. The 1,139.000 ounces in resources in Kenya will have additional drilling results published this month. In November the resources and maiden reserves become declared for WK. The drilling data could for example declare 300,000 reserves with the resource total broadly the same. Luika and Singida also have new reserves and resources being declared that should recover all what was mined out this year plus an extra 30,000 or so for Singida. A company with around 900,000 ounces of reserves at an economic price to mine of $1350 per ounce can not be valued at the current price. Tanzania as a bare minimal of in the ground reserves is $77M and a lot of resource ounces, WK reserves at 300,000 ounces without a mine in production is $30M alone at a fantastic grades if we see a 300,000 ounce reserves declaration and that is before a mine is built. The combined resource valuation is over $60M in the ground price at say $30 an ounce.

This gives a share price of 12.5p for an economic gold price of mining at $1350 per ounce. At the current gold price the real value of the stock should be trading at 18.75p. Perhaps the market is waiting for maiden reserve declaration in West Kenya and granting of mining permits. Both of these will happen in the coming months. How the company can trade at 3PE rate is beyond me. The share should have recovered the loss of Odey to have us back 11p and we were punished because of what he has been accused of seems totally wrong. This in particular is upsetting for investors here.

Operation clear out was only raised as a possibility as we had such little information on strategy except for suing other parties that might be worth litigating against.

18p minus 12p = 6p A possibility?

As the requisitioners move in to take control and walk off with all the Samsung money. Then asset strip out the rest to bring share price down to zero and delist on operation clear out. Requisitioners 18p profit minus any costs losses to date. PIs lose the lot.

Theo

Theo,

I presume you are referring to the condenser over $100M and MRES at say $125M and where does $185M remaining get to a constructed mine in its staged development. I suspect the idea is to copy the HZM funding model. Angola shareholder is a corner stone funder, the banks pay out late stage building finance and a strategic funder comes in and funds start up with the corner stone funder in the first six months. They in essence go back to the original plan and the Angola Government also finds another means to credit them back on infrastructure investment. The strategic is seeing if they get banking support as well as cornerstone support which support their due diligence by coming in last. I could be wrong, but it is the only thing that makes sense to me. They also hope that getting bank support for $120M boosts the share price and they can do some dilution to provide monies as contingencies could be another possibility.

The company made it absolutely clear last week that no shareholder had knowledge of a term sheet until they confirmed it on 6 January under MAR rules. In fact they were in such a hurry to inform the market it became not the best worded RNS and had to be addressed by the board again which gave a better output on 9th January through a second RNS.

All we get is assumptions that a large shareholder was told they had details of the exact deal in the term sheet and requisitioners can not prove it. They are asking another party to prove they are innocent of an accusation they make. The company can prove possibly they are innocent in Court if they waste money in a libel case against Requisitioners, but they probably prefer to spend funds on something else. So far all of this voting is a waste of time and money for everybody. An accusation of a serious nature is made and where is the proof. The company have given their version. The ball is in the requisition side of the court and all we have is them yelling at the linesmen.

On public record of what Tariq Hamoodi thought of all the arrangements prior to 6 January. He was very happy with it.

The only issue in all of this was around 6th January and subsequent discussions about reducing fees. The company have given its version of events and Tariq has his. The burden of proof is on the accuser. Requisitioners show us concrete proof and you have nothing. It is all assumptions. LOAM would know what the reduction in fees entailed. They made a risk calculation months before and were selling into it for ages. The smart thing to do was to copy LOAM and many of us ignored it as we had only a small piece of Nanoco and just thought LOAM had to many shares and had taken losses elsewhere in their portfolio which was true.

Contango December contract has a $40 gap higher than the August contract. The August contract ended in Asia markets. I have not seen this contango in all the time I have invested in Centamin. Someone may have since a contango like this before on a contract rollover.