Member Info for tonynorstrom1

scoutingforit - i think their is some truth to what you say and i would also add that imo the article is a little bit amateurish in parts with a sprinkling of "no **** sherlock comments" , a few errors and topped off with a couple of debatable conclusions / recommendations. but it does offer a slightly different perspective. posters should also bear in mind that they are trying to sell a subscription news letter and perhaps wow potential investors with "look how clever we are" - not sure they pulled it off but some good stuff in there all the same.

as far as their comments on the quality of i3e's acreage is concerned - i think the recent sale of the athabasca's montney assets might indicate that have got that wrong particularly with respect to south simonette. clearwater is more debatable - its still relatively under explored and we are yet to see what they might find but as they did highlight and we already know - the price paid for the land was peanuts and returns are likely to be strong regardless. wapiti / cardium has already produced some strong wells and i3e have stated this area has surprised to the upside. central alberta is by far their biggest land package with the largest inventory of drill locations which many refer to as "cookie cutter " - cheap repeatable and profitable. the area tends to be gas weighted which currently is a bit of a drag but in a year or two's time this could change and become a tailwind - "we remain bullish!"

"At least there is an attempt made at understanding the problem. If you can't or won't grow production of the assets you just bought, perhaps its time to let them go."

"and continue drilling in Canada at a slow pace"

In 2022 they spent nearly $90m on drilling and plan a further $26m (MINIMUM) in 2023 doesnt seem all that slow to me and i'm sure if you aggregate the production gains over the last 2 years i3e would be almost certainly in the top 25th percentile in Canada. Seems to me your comments are not supported by the facts.

Tnord - you keep beating me to the punch - just saw the CEO-CA article before you posted here - good find.

Clearwater is the Horizon - one of the main differentiators is net pay thickness. Some of I3E’s acreage is in area’s classified as tier 2 I.e. with thinner net pay than areas classified as tier 1. Peavine or atleast the areas Baytex have been drilling are primarily tier 1 . Peace River also includes the Bluesky formation that is also seen in some of I3E’s acreage. It will be interesting to see some results from I3E’s Walrus and Seal Areas.

Well I actually dont agree - WCSBCanuck often has a negative spin on things with very little to back up his comments. I thought I3e's tweet was very positive - they have a much more detailed view on the acreage and what the Athabasca valuations might mean for i3e.

DYOR !!!

I don’t know the exact production number - but I have already asked the question along with a request to include in future presentations I.e. a breakdown for each of their main areas. I will share if and when I get a response.

On the LBE share options - personally I’m neutral on linking to SP. just focusing on SP can lead to bad behaviors from a long term value perspective. GE and Jack Welsh being a classic example - he fudged the numbers for years until and the house of cards came crumbling down shortly after he retired.

VernetLes - good spot.

Worth reprinting a post from a couple of days ago on this same deal:

"I think the read through on valuation from the Athabasca sale is very positive for i3e. This is basically what they sold:

https://1drv.ms/i/s!AoSqKfvcR4IMgYR76yLaugaHcAneNA?e=ITKzkB

their working interest was 75% which means they have about 55 net sections which is only a fraction higher than i3e with around 50 net sections in simonette / Montney. Their land package is more contiguous than i3e's which I think adds to the valuation, however, as per the announcement - the production is 44% liquids of which 75% is light oil / Condensate equivalent to 33% Oil overall. For reference i3e is about 48% liquids of which about 22% is oil, however in South Simonette - Oil / Condensate makes up about 65% so significantly more valuable than the Athabasca Acreage though the North Simonette Acreage is Gas weighted.

Of course their producing over 3000 boepd which is significantly higher than i3e is currently producing - but over time I expect we will surpass this figure. So bottom line is potentially our Simonette acreage is quite valuable."

Https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/tourmaline-delivers-strong-free-cash-flow-and-declares-a-special-dividend-863808660.html

Another data point - Tourmaline acquired 15 net sections in North Simonette for CAD 25m. The article also highlights the strong economics if you drill multiple wells from a single pad - 6 well development for just over CAD 30m. I recall Ryan Heath Touching on this previously that costs on a per well basis can be brought down substantially if you can drill multiple wells at one time - paybacks in as short as 3 months !

I see Long Boat Energy have just issued Management Options with the vesting criteria linked to SP !

Https://twitter.com/miklynch_lynch/status/1674620701423325185/photo/1

So this is what Canaccord Genuity had to say.

Based on the Peer group average the broker identifies - we would trade at 18p and their target price is 24p.

Or otherwise you’ve tried to add 1 + 1 and come up with 7 which imo is much more likely!

Most people wouldn’t take it in isolation Dartron -they would ask a question if what I said didn’t make sense like you did. Also my basic assumption was based on the stated capex budget - anything else would be based on plans not yet announced or known by anyone on this BB.

An important point to note however, absolute debt goes down month by month as they pay off the principal in accordance with loan conditions.

Obviously Dartron - the number is based on them not spending any cash other than the announced Capex program. If they buy something or spend on drilling more wells or even buybacks - then net debt goes up but NAV also goes up. Debt would still go down unless they draw on the additional accordion facility.

I would have to agree with you Bottomup - looking at the facts:

Net debt at the end of May when they refinanced was about £10m v £3m in October (my projection - could be a little off but the relative numbers I think are pretty solid). Oil & Gas prices are currently ahead of where they were in May. So balance sheet is stronger, cash is higher, Oil prices are higher. I think you would have to ask on what basis Pete is making that claim - I would guess it could be based on 2 bottles of Merlot !

Of course we dont know what the financial ratios's are but given the numbers above - i3e are in pretty good shape.

"Which entity with assets (not just assets) will give you a very nice 60% equivalent of the PREVIOUS dividend? Are you in the know or making it up? And how much will it cost and how much confetti raise? You're looking to destroy shareholder value and yet people agreeing with your garbage dont understand at all."

Sounds unhinged to me and not at all what I said. I dont want to get in another tit for tat on who has the biggest willy - so focusing on the subject:

I'm not in favour of equity raises unless its done on exceptional terms and is immediately accretive to per share metrics and the SP. In general I think i3e has way too many shares in issue and is not a good look for the Company imo. It's one of the reasons I think that i3e trade at a discount to peers because we are lumped together with lots of AIM basket cases with billions of shares and we are not a basket case.

With Prairee Provident - I was merely suggesting what a i3e target Company might look like. One of the most important attributes again imo is tax pools. If it doesnt have a tax pool I wouldn't be looking to buy anything - stick with drilling Clearwater and buying back your own stock. To clarify tax pools and quite frankly some of the stupid comments that have been made here - i3e are paying £10m in canadian taxes (to be paid in full in H1 - already paid - see full year 2022 results). If they had a tax pool - that's £10m that could have been saved and used on drilling, dividends or buybacks. All this nonsense about "it depends on the structure" - i3e wouldn't buy a tax pool that they couldn't use - common sense !

Also I dont agree that Prairee Providents production is peanuts - its mainly Oil and when you consider i3e produces 4500 - 5000 bopd - it would be quite significant. Again I'm not pushing this Company - its fields are in completely different area's than i3e so no apparent synergies.

Imo tax pools are so important that i3e could potentially buy a gas company in Central Aberta with big tax pools, gas is in the doldrums so potentially could be cheap but would be immediately accretive to FCF because of the tax losses and with gas looking to have a much brighter outlook in the coming years - it could be very profitable ! Easier said than done but that's what I would be looking at.

Jolly - if you’re going to take the moral high ground, you've got to talk from the moral high ground. How is calling someone dim acceptable but an idiot is despicable??

It’s clear imo to fair minded posters here that you and Pistol Pete are entirely focussed on the negative side of the coin. No problem to call out the negatives/mistakes that may have occurred, but to be totally fixated on them and repeat them again and again – just doesn’t make sense if you’re a shareholder. How is it balanced to sum up taking a Company from zero production and almost bankrupt to a 24,000 boepd and say “they got lucky” and then criticize them as much as you two have for not getting the call on oil and gas prices wrong which pretty much everyone got wrong!

Here's another one for you Pete - take a look at this - Gear Energy also forced to “revise” down their dividend and capex program in line with the reality of current oil prices.

https://boereport.com/2023/07/26/gear-energy-ltd-announces-second-quarter-2023-operating-results-and-august-monthly-dividend-of-0-005-per-share/

Its only the start of the Q2 reporting season – I suspect that Gear will not be the last company to “revise” their dividend.

I think you and Jolly are possibly not only the smartest people on this BB, but maybe the smartest of any in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. Perhaps the pair of you should pack your bags and get yourself over to Alberta and show these Canuks how to run an Oil Company – their obviously all clueless!

I believe that I can look at both sides of the coin - what's happened has happened and it’s time to look forward in my view.

Does anyone else get the impression that PanamaPete, WCSBCanuck & jollygoodya have absolutely no clue what they are talking about - or is it just me - just saying !

"Canada may not allow tax pools to be used for an area unrelated to the asset purchased" - do they or don't they or are you just dreaming this up as you go?

"WCSB, the assets acquired were frozen (I think by vendor) neat little trick is I3E spent heavey on a capital prog. Which they have now curtailed. So appears the trick has reversed." - what the f@ck does that even mean - perhaps jolly can explain !

"Personally, I've never given a real reason when I left a company." - perhaps your the eeydiot - have you considered that ?

I’ve been saying for a while that imo - they should be looking for something with tax pools. I3E’s tax charge in 2022 was about £13m. So even if they bought less than top tier assets - if it came with a large tax pool - that’s £13m straight to free cash flow - that’s covers about 60% of the previous dividend right there.

Jim,

The top price was middle of last year after which the POO and Gas has been on pretty much a continuous slide until the last few weeks or so. Top price 12 months ago, dividend raised 6 months ago after which the POO and the SP continued on its down trend so doesn’t really support the narrative you are trying to peddle.

Pete,

The real reason for Grahams Departure has already been explained - if you want to speculate there was more to it than that - that’s up to you. Do you think the Moon Landings were real or staged and who shot Biggie and Tupac?

As as what the do with available funds - it’s all about trying to buy a dollar for 40c, 50c or maybe 80c. The calculation changes every day with changes in the SP, POO and asset prices.

What do I think they should do - buybacks, and Clearwater drills only. Maybe an acquisition but I think it’s going to be hard to find one cheap enough that competes with the 1st two I suggested.