Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Jezzo,

Interested to know where you say Doc has misrepresented facts as supposition - I think pretty much everything he's stated is fact.

1) Dividend 8-9% - FACT. They still have to pay it but I don't think there is any reasonable doubt it will be paid.
2) Cash Flow / NOI forecast raised twice - FACT. If Oil and gas stay where it is - it will be raised again
3) Doubling of the SP was underpinned by fundamentals. The metrics are their to support this as fact although promises of the dividend and positive PR by the Doc helped.
4) Current SP is a concern primarily the uncertainty of whether the fall is justified. I dont think it is though i3e could help by finalizing the dividend and a bit of positive PR.

As Doc says - the facts are the facts !

Nomadinvetsor,

Agreed - it seems like a no-brainer. I'm not sure where the creditors would would stand on this. It appears that approvals have contributed to part of the delay in getting the dividends approved, I'm pretty sure they would have to be consulted about buy backs.

The share price is currently making a mockery of any commentary on the SP or prediction. I can only say:

1) I agree with BwanaMakubwa - Oil / I3e currently seem to be the perfect hedge against inflation. Oil demand / prices are relatively buoyant and forecast to be steady / improve. Also the coupon on the loan note is fixed so interest rate hikes does not impact i3e's cash flow. Not to mention that the oil price is not fully reflected in i3e's share price as is a 8.5% dividend !!!

2) Agree with Doorstep that i3e as a multiple of Net Operating Income is extremely cheap on a historical basis. It is almost certainly cheaper than 2.3 times as I3e will be forecasting on a conservative basis with respect to Oil Price and Production. (forecast will be based on hedged price plus futures). Current Oil price is at least $5 / bbl higher. I estimate that they are currently trading at 1.7 x NOI !!

3) I still dont see any large sells of heavy volume as has been the case for the last week. My assumption is that the price is being driven entirely by small shareholders and larger (and usually better informed holders) are still holding tight.

This has to completely retrace and move higher or i'll eat my hat. IMO it will start moving in the right direction once we get the dividend and further news flow.

top up nbul1 and make an offer for the Company !

A small share buyback would certainly send the right message.

I3e are you listening ?

what is the "weak theory" ?

Trying to explain the value / share price:

1) 1st thing that pops out at me is that volume has been relatively light and there has been very few larger sells. That says to me the "smart" money is currently sitting tight at these levels - Positive !
2) Dividend is late and last podcast might have been perceived as luke warm by some and enough to shed the so called weak hands.
3) Last RNS and Podcast probably not sufficiently bullish to stand out to new investors and very little other PR at present to explain the investment case.
4) Lack of appreciation by some of the assets namely Clearwater.
5) Lack of awareness of the current value in i3e - it certainly has not been advertised yet by i3e.

Another graph from Eric Nuttal of Nine - points Capital. I have plugged in Noel and the new wells to calculate a 2022 FCF multiple which comes out to be 22%. It's cheaper than any Company on the chart and nearly double the median. There are some assumptions including how maintenance capital is treated but I have made a conservative assumption ( so could even be cheaper).

I'm still confident that the SP should be sitting much higher and I think will as the news flow continues. And as some have said, we'll be getting paid 6-8% for the wait.

https://twitter.com/eri****tall/status/1391794520652668928

Blackwhite,

All views are welcome - but you've expressed it without any back-up. Petro Matad has no relevance to i3e other than it is an oil stock and has an SP. Also you state that i3e is worth a hell of a lot more - but not provided any justification why. Most on here would agree but your post would be alot more worthwhile if you elaborated why.

You've also stated that people are talking i3e down - I dont think that's the case - I thinks its more a case of SH's trying to understand the current SP.

BlackWhite,

Why compare against Petro Matad - why not against a couple of Canadian Peers on FCF multiple or other appropriate metric?

"So let’s just be clear, you’re all de ramping now " - what ?

https://twitter.com/eri****tall/status/1391794520652668928/photo/1

JAdam,

8% ?

Maestro,

I cannot say - some here get offended - lets just say a well informed little bird !

Maestro,

Good point - I could not understand why i3e's had not got Creditor approval prior to now for Balance Sheet Restructuring / Dividend- its quite possible that there were differences on the level of hedging that took a while to agree.

I agree hedging was sensible and is what they said they would do - how good the hedge is depends on the price they hedged at and what percentage of production.

GGG,

One of the things that has changed is the hedging which may not have been priced in. I'm not sure how good the hedging is with respect to current prices.

WTI = $64.5 subtract $4 = $61.5 (i3e's realized price approx) Hedged Price = $57.7
Henry Bub Nat Gas = $2.91 Hedged Price = $2.34

Were loosing about $3.5m on hedged v unhedged at a time when perhaps the market was expecting prices to increase or at least hold steady. That said, I think were still undervalued. We need the annual results so we can see all i3e's cards.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Big-Oil-Is-In-Desperate-Need-Of-New-Discoveries.html

Any ideas folks?

No wonder I have not been able to match i3E's projected NOI / FCF - I believe that I3e will have done the calculations with the swaps / hedges in place(obviously !). Any of us who've been trying to model i3E's CF will now need to go back and update the spread sheet.

I3e have swapped / hedged 50% of oil production at an average of CAD 69.81 ($57.69). It will be interesting to go back and calculate the reduction to NOI / FCF due to these swaps / hedges. I'll will plug them into the spread sheet and post the result a little later. I guess this is the price for protecting against falling prices - you have to sacrifice a little of the upside during rising prices.

Current WTI = $65.39 Realized price = $61.39 (loss due to hedging = $3.70)

Loss in yearly revenue = 340 x 750 x $3.70 =

Another good read - what happens next after a discovery:

A couple of things that stuck out :

1) Length of time from a discovery to 1st Oil. It says last two large discoveries in Alaska took 7 years from discovery to 1st Oil. Useful to know when thinking about how much value and how quickly it will accrue due to a discovery. I recall seeing (cannot remember whether here or on a 88e presentation) - that designs are already in place for modular skid mounted processing equipment which would presumably drastically shorten the cycle to 1st Oil.

2) 2nd thing that caught my eye was the huge cost and time of putting infrastructure in place in Alaska. It has to be a massive competitive advantage that PAD's acreage is right next door to the TAP pipelines and highway. Not only a cost but a schedule and environmental advantage over neighboring projects.

https://www.reddit.com/r/PantheonResourcesPANR/comments/n79g5i/some_of_the_material_in_this_post_is_useful_for/

Fastfood,

The operational update RNS was largely quite positive, the podcast covered pretty much the same ground and was no less positive in terms of content - just a little undersold I think due to Graham / Majid being gun shy from past events. As both you and GGG say - we now have a solid base on which to measure and grow from and now that we know where we sit with production and the status of new projects / wells - I can only see the news from this point on being almost universally positive / accretive to the SP. Obviously I3E can not control the Oil price but the rest of the cards seem to be in i3e's hands.
Upcoming catalysts / news:

1) Dividend ( not sure how much this will move the needle as the amount has already been stated)
2) Annual Report expected end of May. Hopefully no surprises in terms of cost, but another opportunity to announce positive updates.
3) Spuding of 2 wells as soon as this month.
4) Update on Serenity
5) Update on new drilling plans in Clearwater
6) Share buyback - I dont expect this but its possible especially if drilling plans are slightly behind internal forecast. A small buyback I think would send a positive message and would not need to be too expensive.
7) Additional farm-ins to Clearwater or other acreages - again not currently forecast but possible.

GLA

Newanda,

Thanks for reposting - very interesting. I see a lot of interesting stuff posted by many including Telemachus (Bynari ?) on this Pantheon/Reddit BB.

I came across the attached post also from Telemachus that provides a part answer to a question I had asked a day or two ago on this forum i.e. whether the DRT's / Testing would be able to add any thing to flow test results / reserves. Within the article its states:

"....It is not a safe assumption to say that no contingent resources or even reserves can be recognized following the Talitha well because you do not know what information has been gathered and......."

https://www.reddit.com/r/PantheonResourcesPANR/comments/mwrfbi/resource_classification_and_the_talitha_well/

Well that is the counter argument to lower prices i.e. that Companies have failed to invest enough to arrest production declines let alone expand and that when demand recovers - we will have a supply squeeze and higher prices. It sounds good and good for Companies like i3E - lets see whether it plays out.

90% Energy Security - is that official policy - is there a link?