I've never heard of that two year rule, so I just looked for it. The only thing I could find was a potential two year rule on IHT which may apply to some AIM-listed companies. Can you shed any light on a CGT rule?
I agree Spacerat. That's why another fund raise wouldn't bother me at all. Obviously could still spook the SP depending on the circumstances at the time, but I'm expecting the orders across the industry to start building really strongly over the next 12-18 months. We need to demonstrate to everyone that we're transitioning from hype (nay-sayers words, not mine) into growth.
I think it's a little premature to suggest that there won't be another fund raise. Building a new factory and filling it with staff is a very expensive operation. On the grounds that it appears that the large orders aren't materialising as fast as the business had hoped, I would expect their cashflow forecasts will show them running out of money within 24 months if they progress with the build(s) at the original proposed rate. With any luck though, by the time they announce a fund raise the market for hydrogen stocks will be buoyant again so it won't matter.
Sadly I once followed a Peel Hunt buy recommendation all the way down to a total loss. That taught me that analysts views and recommendations aren't worth a penny.
You can, however, use them as a starting point to consider doing your own research and maybe you draw the same conclusion, maybe you don't. In this case I have my own buy rating on ITM and it's got nothing to do with Peel Hunt.
It looks like Element 2 are not generating H2 on-site for their refuelling stations. Their website mentions a couple of waste-to-H2 partnerships.
For ITM I feel this ought to be one of the offtake customers that Linde will supply to from their H2 production arm. If they do then it's indirectly an ITM unit doing the production.
Trader87, there's a link icon to short positions at the top of this page.
Fund % Short Date Changed
JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd 0.96 7 Jul 2022
JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd 0.83 5 Jul 2022
JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd 0.71 24 Jun 2022
JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd 0.62 9 Jun 2022
Seems a very brave move to add to short positions at this level. Maybe JPMorgan is just covering alternative positions. It's very common to play one company off another. Say you think Nel will do better than ITM, then you place a long on Nel and an equal short on ITM so, irrespective of the success of the hydrogen market generally, you win if Nel makes a better job of it than ITM.
PowerCell Sweden AB has signed a memorandum of understanding, MoU, with the UK company ZeroAvia concerning series deliveries of 100-kW fuel cell stacks starting in 2024.
It is currently estimated that a final agreement could include delivery of 5,000 units over a five-year period. Final commercial terms will be negotiated in the next phase. The parties’ ambition, in accordance with the MoU, is to reach a final agreement in the third quarter of 2022.
ZeroAvia intends to use the fuel cell stacks to produce a 600-kilowatt, low-temperature, hydrogen-electric powertrain that can be used to develop a certified 19-seat, fuel cell-powered commercial aircraft. The memorandum of understanding, MOU, also includes an agreement that PowerCell will establish local production in the UK for final assembly and adaptation of the stacks to ZeroAvia’s fuel cell system and application.
Nel ASA: Receives record size purchase order for 200 MW of alkaline electrolyser equipment.
(Oslo, 18 July 2022) Nel Hydrogen Electrolyser AS, a subsidiary of Nel ASA (Nel, OSE:NEL), has received its largest ever purchase order from an undisclosed US customer for 200 MW of alkaline electrolyser equipment for industrial application
At this rate we'll still be testing viability in 2100.
When will they realise that it's scale that drives down costs in any market. Continuous research and test phases will keep us at low scale.
Meanwhile Plug Power's electrolyser deliveries went up 40x in a year.
It doesn't exactly put the great in Great Britain.
The commissioning timeframes might suggest that we're still a year or two away from some sizeable order decisions. So we could be in the doldrums with the share price for a bit longer. Eventually the word will get out again. Who knows, we could even get a repeat of the 2019-2020 surge once people sense it's "for real" this time.
I hope everyone remembered to join this seminar last week. There was a lot of good ITM stuff in it.
Host: Kate Macfarlane - Senior Business Development Manager for Clean Energy
Agenda
1. Yara Clean Ammonia
2. Overview Project Porsgrunn
3. Decarbonising Ammonia Production
4. ITM Linde 2022 Technology Updates
5. Green Hydrogen Market Segments and Products
Topic 4 (timestamp 1:12:00)
Presenter: Dr Volker Goke - Head of Product Management ITM-Linde Electrolysis
Covers Production Capacity split at ITM Factories and large system technology
Topic 5 (timestamp 1:45:00)
Presenter: Sven Assmuth - Head of Sales & Proposals at ITM-Linde Electrolysis
Covers Several Current Projects:
AGR Waste Management 4MW (Mobility) - Commissioning 2023
Refhyne 10MW + 100MW (Refinery) - Commissioning 2021 + (?)
Leuna 24MW (Hydrogen Supply) - Commissioning Q3/2022
Yara 24MW (Ammonia/Fertiliser) - Commissioning 2023
RWE Lingen 4MW (Chemical + Refinery) - Commissioning Q1/2023
Undisclosed 100MW (H2 Economy) (Snam?) - Commissioning 2024
Undisclosed Feed Study 1GW (Ammonia/Fertiliser) - Commissioning date not disclosed (Sven estimates 2025-2026)
Didn't cover Oyster or Gigastack
https://www.engineering.linde.com/l/310981/2022-07-04/31rnrbn
There's no suggestion on the HUI website that they are using anything other than PHE technology.
On a side note, I still think it's a high risk strategy for PHE to let everyone else build their technology on a license fee model. Seems to me there's good money to be made in the assembly, fit-out, service, and futher development. Always the nagging concern about the other businesses involved developing in a slightly different direction and stealing your business.
GC said in a previous presentation that they're not going for these small opportunities any more. So it's not that they failed to get it, or missed the opportunity, instead it's too small to bother with.
Better to fill a 1GW factory with 10x 100MW deals than 1000x 1MW deals.