The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
I suspect that the joint venture with Linde was the wrong thing to do at that time. It effectively puts Linde in the driving seat which sounded like a good idea at the time. It could however be like cannibalising Linde's exisiting business - stealing business from their own hydrogen stream whilst also turning some customers almost into competitors as they can make their own hydrogen. It must be really difficult to manage and no real sense of urgency from Linde as they already sell hydrogen. If this is going to work out for ITM then it's going to have to be straight into large scale as the 10MW-20MW-50MW-100MW ramp, I think we were all expecting, doesn't seem to have happened (judging by the lack of RNS order announcements). In that case maybe the share price jumps to reflect that when it happens. If we're still on the slow ramp then we've definitely fallen behind. It'll be interesting to hear what they've got to say on Wednesday.
I'm sure our country will take the lead as soon as its finished its trials of hydrogen vs electrification, then a set of trials on hydrogen storage and delevery, followed no doubt by trials of hydrogen produced from small modular reactors (once we've built them of course). We should be finished all the trials by about 2050, and then we'll be ready to lead. (Yes, sarcasm. No matter which party, we have a rinse and repeat format for industry and its applications. And I too blame the non-manufacturing, non-engineering, non-mathematical background of the majority of our politicians and civil servants. I keep voting and hoping for better, but still waiting).
Keep a look out for a good top up price. JRM and KK are not natural supporters of green hydrogen, but they may only be in power for about 18 months so I reckon a short term drop in share price will be a short-sighted overreaction to their appointment.
Yet more dull-headed policy-making from the EU. It makes a mockery of even having an electricity grid system if you're going to isolate a sector of users from using it. Forcing green hydrogen electrolysers to have to source their electricity from a brand new dedicated renewable supply is certainly one of the big things holding back electrolyser sales. A better approach would be to ask green hydrogen customers to fund an equivalence of renewable supply to be attached to their national grid. In the end it doesn't matter where it goes or who actually uses it as long as it's generated.
Sadly our government is drawn as much to going nuclear as to going green/renewable...perhaps more in fact. I don't suppose they stopped to question what's going on in Ukraine where Russia is essentially using nuclear power stations as 'shields'. I suppose they've dismissed that under the banner "well that could never happen here".
Thanks lejjb, I thought so. I guess 6m shares sold is probably closer to the mark and probably took about a week to process judging by the recent daily volumes. Pity we're not seeing any new strength supporting the price since though. I might pick up another batch if it drops below 150.
Fluctuation, they are usually very good with the questions. They answer as many as they can at the end of the presentation and then they answer the rest offline and post them back onto the InvestorMeet platform a couple of weeks later. As long as you don't ask anything too sensitive (e.g. ongoing contract discussions), you should get an answer.
There's something weird about the numbers. The RNS says they went from 7.95% to 6.98% but the ITM website has them at only 7.31%. The RNS would make that closer to 6m shares sold vs ITM figures at 2m. It's not a big deal, but can anyone tell me if I'm misinterpreting what I'm reading?
Glad I've got shares in Plug as well as ITM. Plug leaving ITM in its dust yet again.
https://www.ir.plugpower.com/press-releases/news-details/2022/Plug-and-Amazon-Sign-Green-Hydrogen-Agreement/default.aspx
Come on ITM. Catch up.
They claim their dumping of all Nikola shares doesn't change their relationship - we'll see.
https://nelhydrogen.com/press-release/nel-asa-share-capital-increase-registered-and-sale-of-nikola-shares/
To add to bilbs excellent analysis I would recommend people listen to Andy Marsh (CEO of Plug Power) and contrast that with GC. Andy is always jetting off building relationships and setting up contracts and agreements globally and there's always something he's "looking forward to announcing soon", and sure enough, soon you actually get an announcment. GC on the other hand only talks about how big the market is but never any insight into any dealings he's personally having with potential customers. You can sometimes tell when someone is itching to tell you something about an imminent deal but they're not yet allowed to divulge info yet, and you almost never get that from GC. I should acknowledge that their big deals have been announced out of the blue...but when was the last one, I can't even remember.
Something also seems weird that GS recommendations don't appear on the "Broker Ratings" lists. Anyone know why that is?
It's documented that they initiated their rating of ITM back in February as a HOLD (target around 280 I think).
lejjb, Linde first bought in Oct 2019 with 95m shares at 40p (£38m for 20% stake). They were dilluted in the next funding round in Oct 2020 when Snam bought 12.7m shares at £2.35. Linde participated again in the funding round of Oct 2021 buying 5m shares at £4.00 (£20m to make up to current 16.31% stake).
The top 7 shareholders hold just over 45% of the stock. Looking at the list, it's hard to see them having any inclination to sell out to a big oil firm. If anything, it would have to be Linde deciding if it wants to buy the whole business. I suppose that could happen, but I still feel that Linde is too close to blue hydrogen to justify a full ITM buyout.
https://itm-power.com/investors/shareholders