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TIck tock. Even though I've heard it's been cracking weather, it's a terrible time to be have some shorts on now. Must be awful knowing that each time you have to close a short the price jumps up further and then the next one and so on. Must be even more painful knowing investors are loading up more and more by the day and any piece of newsflow will exacerbate the problem further.
So we can see how important Zanaga is to diversifying RoC economy. The IMF have stated this themselves. Yesterday we had the news regarding diversification of the economy through agriculture and this coming in to effect. As I said before, any IMF deal IMO will need to see that the new Mineral Port will also come in to effect. Again, any Mineral Port will need the commitment of Zanaga being developed. IMF meeting next week for bailout package. Watch this space for further positive developments in relation to Zanaga.
Another important development yesterday pre IMF bailout was the agricultural development entering the “execution stage”. This ‘agricultural development’ is part of the National Development Plan and is ticking one box for diversification, the same diversification of the economy the IMF needs to see happening pre cursor to bailout agreement. Mining is key to diversification of the economy. Zanaga alone can raise the GDP of RoC by 30% alone. Firstly, here’s more on the agricultural development... http://www.adiac-congo.com/content/developpement-agricole-le-projet-dappui-lagriculture-commerciale-entre-en-execution-86720 July 26th 2018 “Agricultural development: the commercial agriculture support project enters into execution” “Co-financed by the Congo and the World Bank to the tune of one hundred million dollars (about fifty-five billion FCFA), the Commercial Agriculture Support Project (PDAC) is now in its enforceable phase and should reach, within five next few years, nearly five hundred thousand beneficiaries across the country's different departments.” “This project is aligned with national and regional priorities for agricultural development and will contribute to the achievement of the objectives of the National Development Plan 2018-2022, recently adopted by the Government. The diversification of the economy has therefore placed particular emphasis on agriculture.” - - - - - - - - - - Now we can look at the IMF and their thoughts regarding our very own Zanaga Iron Ore. From the IMF Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: Under the "Economic Diversification and Private Sector Development" section... "Mining. Since the creation of the 2005 mining code, mining exploration has increased. As referred to in the PRSP, the Mengo potash mine near Pointe Noire, the Nabeba and ZANAGA IRON ORE projects are examples of large-scale capital-intensive projects that could be developed in the short term and could have a TRANSFORMATIONAL EFFECT on the local economy and infrastructure. Finally, sound, efficient and transparent management of mineral resources for a sustainable contribution to DIVERSIFICATION will require significant institutional strengthening."
Hello Rafaley , sorry I am not going to be drawn in to a guessing game as I simply don't know the answer to that question.
What I do know is that from my extensive research over the past 11 months is that this investment case is looking stronger than it ever has and I am confident big progress is being made and we could see something newsworthy very soon. My research has drawn me to that conclusion as I have tried to piece all of the material together.
I always try and refrain from SP predictions or buy out predictions etc etc.
Part 2
What happened since?
SNPC audit law ticks one of boxes for IMF.
NDP also ticks one of boxes for IMF.
Inside NDP as we well know is diversification of economy and mining most notably Zanaga underpins this.
Then we have news of production contract of SEZ and mineral port to be signed.
The same very port which will be used to export Zanaga's iron ore and increase GDP and help RoC get out of this mess.
RoC PM visiting China last week and meeting EXIM Bank of China. THE very people who will be finding the SEZ and mineral port.
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In a nutshell the IMF won't agree to bailout on Monday in the hope that a production contract will be signed for the SEZ and mineral port in September. They will however if they have the guarantee that Zanaga will be financed and developed. This will mean IMF are hugely confident SEZ and mineral port will happen as that is only route to port for large scale export of Zanaga's iron ore.
If the IMF were meeting in September however that changes the dynamic completely in that they could see the signing of the development contract for the SEZ and mineral port and commit to bailout that way.
DYOR
I've gone through all the scenarios in my head.
The logical thing for me is that we'll get an update very soon.
Why do I think this?
All links to IMF on Monday. China needs IMF bailout package for RoC in the sense that it brings stability to the country. Building an SEZ and mineral port in a bankrupt country is simply unviable.
China also likes the IMF putting pressure on RoC to help try and clean up corruption as well. They are sick and tired of pumping money in to RoC to see it go in the back pockets of the ruling elite. That's another reason why they opened the bank there. (Also remember when bank opened they stated it will help channel funds to fund the mineral port. I.e. All controlled by China)
The mining port especially will help RoC get out of this mess. The IMF will only agree to the bailout if RoC can promise change otherwise 2-3 years down the line they will be in an even bigger pickle.
Currently no assurances whatsoever that Zanaga will be developed.
That LOI ain't going to cut the mustard.
It's the chicken and the egg scenario as we've talked about in depth but twofold.
Twofold in that the mineral port is needed for IMF to agree bailout but also Zanaga is required by the Chinese to achieve this.
Zanaga ---- China finances Zanaga ----- IMF agrees to bailout as can see diversification.
China are in the driving seat. No China then no port. No port and then good luck at getting RoC out of the state they are in (the imf bailout package on its own will just be putting a plaster on the problem).
As we know the development contract for SEZ and mineral port will be signed in September.
Yes there are other companies using the port as we well know. Other iron ore, potash etc etc.
However Zanaga underpins the ports viability. Without Zanaga I just can't see it working economically.
Again China are funding this. They aren't just going to find this port on the proviso that mining companies could possibly use it in the future.
Wouldn't make business sense at all.
1. Zanaga maybe doesn't get developed and then the Chinese have funded his big port which wouldn't be economically viable
2. Port gets funded and then Zanaga's value will rocket. The price of buying Zioc's share or the whole lot for example will be worth so much more. Zanaga can add a zero to the price and have them over a barrel price rise.
Zanaga isn't getting use of a mineral port for free either. (Again linking to above) The Chinese aren't just making this mineral port so they can make money on the construction of it. They aren't interested in that whatsoever.
We can see that the specifications of the new mineral port fits exactly to the Zanaga studies from before. Same location, same specifications and also same costs.
It is essentially being constructed for Zanaga.
Now we know the IMF meeting was initially agree for July 6th and then tentatively postponed to July 11th.
Then nothing.
What happened since?
S
http://sichuan.scol.com.cn/m/dwzw/201807/56382589.html
"Deng Xiaogang, deputy secretary of the Provincial Party committee, met with the Prime Minister of Congo Brazzaville Mouamba in his visit to Sichuan.
Mr. Mouamba thanked the friendship between China and the two countries and thanked the Chinese people for their strong support for the country's development and construction projects."
Yeh all very good but the last sentence underneath is key...
"Congo Brazzaville Special Economic Zone Minister Mokoki, Ambassador to China Ovasa also attended the meeting."
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So we now know RoC SEZ Minister Mokoki is currently in China!
Only going there for one reason IMO.
Thanks for that extrader. You've emphasised our points even more. I wholeheartedly agree with what you are saying about "conditional debt relief". You've really hit the nail on the head there. IMF need ROC to up their game and diversify away from oil and the NDP with the SEZ and mining port being integral to this. Also with the PM visiting China last week and having discussions with Exim Bank of China further enhances this. Very exciting times indeed for Zioc holders.
Ministerial Meeting July 20th 2018: “other projects undertaken to meet the challenge of DIVERSIFYING the economy, including the construction of the infrastructure necessary for the REALIZATION OF SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES and other industrial zones, should be integrated as a prerequisite.” http://www.adiac-congo.com/content/compte-rendu-du-conseil-des-ministres-du-vendredi-20-juillet-2018-86502
IMF bailout linked to mineral port. Diversification of the economy is key. The new port ensures this diversification from solely relying on oil. Last week we had the news regarding production contract for the Special Economic Zone including new port to be signed in September. IMF will want assurances this new mineral port will actually happen (financing agreed) before committing to debt bailout package. IMF executive board meeting July 30th. DYOR