Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Since the 10m placing was announced there have been some serious 'buys' this morning:- 50k; 100k; 175k; 138k; 75k and lots in the 10k - 25k range and only one significant 'sell' of 100k.
Given that a placing like this usually has to be discounted the fact that AYM were able to make the placing at 6.6p is very positive and a further indicator that the SP is likely to go up significantly not only in the mid-term but also in the short-term.
I'm looking forward to learning what the " ... other base metal projects at advanced stages which can be potentially incorporated into the group ... " are. Intriguing in a positive way.
I have experience of dealing with large private (read state) owned Chinese entities and they usually play a clever game. They will not want it to be obvious that they are buying up assets if they can help it so they will create SPVs in Western countries to try to hide this from the markets and (if they can) from Governments. The Canadian government, given their problems with the CCP over recent years, will be vigilant in monitoring any buyers but there are many effective ways of disguising who the true buyers are. Nevertheless, any buyers will inevitably have the effect of pushing the price of the mines up along with the climbing value of the ore itself (and it will keep climbing).
Now you are just being ridiculous. When have I ever said anything like that?
I have made it clear in my posts of last week and yesterday that I don't go along with the 'mega baggers' but I do believe that the SP is very low and expect (as previously stated) a SP of low to (possibly) mid teens in the near term. I think low teens more realistic in the short term but in the mid term a SP in the mid teens seems very likely - in imo.
How large countries (China has already started doing this on a huge scale) move to pump their Covid damaged economies will become obvious in the coming months - it will without doubt involve infrastructure projects which means a rapidly growing demand for not just steel but also copper (and you have battery EVs, grid upgrades and IoT on top of all that). I expect the UK government to be, as usual, very slow out of the blocks but enter the race they must which will obviously benefit AYM directly if someone else hasn't got there first (highly likely imo.)
Please don't resort to 'straw man' arguments but rather tell me where my analysis is wrong. Thank you.
A more realistic example would be the case of a Transit van worth, in normal times, £30k. If a number of very large companies were known to be looking to buy all or most of the Transit vans to be produced over the coming years, the demand for Transit vans would be enormous and, on the principle of demand and supply, the price of Transit vans would increase significantly over the current list price (which would be adjusted upwards).
I'm sure you will see what I'm saying by way of this analogy. The large corporates are of course the Western economies and China with China (who are masters at the long game as well) being very significant here due to the issues created by way of their difficulties with Australia and Australian iron ore. China are desperately looking to secure additional iron ore capacity and to that end are buying and developing on a significant scale in Africa - but most of those developments are much further away from production than Labrador (and even Gainsburg).
There is already a significant shortage of seaborne iron ore - conservative estimates suggest in early Dec around 90 million tonnes at least and that is only going to get worse as large economies start putting infrastructure projects in place to help overcome the damage caused by Covid (Biden's administration will pour money into such projects and Canada is conveniently close).
I don't have time to spell this out in great detail but I'm sure you know at lesat some of the above facts and it's why I said to Southwesterner - who seems to look at everything from the perspective of historic reasons for getting a mine into production (as you seem also to do) - to get his face from the rockface and look around. I wasn't meaning to be rude to him in saying what I said but rather to try to get him (and by association you and others like you) to factor in these very pertinent facts.
It's not 'realism' but rather your subjective beliefs and you are notably pessimistic in your historical approach to valuation. Like Southwesterner, you ignore certain fundamentals that in the current climate have a much stronger bearing on valuations than would have been the case a mere 12 months ago. You know what I wrote only a week ago and so I won't rehash them here.
Brentharg: I can see where you are heading (no genius needed there) but in doing what you look to be lining up to do you will be no better than Spenfold except you will be doing the exact opposite which is actually worse in many ways.
I would have thought that Spenfolds' significant 'overegging of the pudding' is obvious to most but putting a negative spin on things - which no doubt you will call 'being realistic' - isn't helpful either.
Just sayin'
I wouldn't be at all surprised if the LIM BOD are waiting to see what happens in the US tomorrow (and even for a few days afterwards) before publishing the PEA. Sentiment/confidence is a very important factor for the markets as everyone knows and serious disturbances in the US would knock pretty much everything in pretty much every sector and not least in commodities. LIM's BOD will want the PEA to be released when market sentiment is good and when there is a chance that investors are not spooked by any crazyness in the US.
Given the prevelance of use of the phrase in what used to be solidly religious N.W.Wales my guess is that it's a refetence to Bishop William Morgan who translated the Bible into Welsh back in 1588 - that's just a guess though.
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Some posters are saying nonsense along the lines “if it’s in the ground, it’s not worth anything” which is staggering in its lack of understanding.
Do you seriously think that the big Miners, big Investors and China are unaware of all of this? The PEA is material because of the confirmation by experienced and credible outfits of a significant amount of conservatively estimated inferred reserves coupled to ‘already in place infrastructure’ (the latter being a biggie in terms of going into production – but you know this right?).
I personally expect that AYM will be bought by an outfit that can afford to sit on this in the short to medium term and who will then, once the price of Iron Ore and Copper (and Zinc to a lesser degree) have increased considerably (which they will) will recommence operations at the relevant locations (unlikely to be all at the same time of course)
I’m not saying AYM is the most exciting prospect in these mining sectors but by golly at these share prices what’s not to like?
Enough, it will be what it will be. As mentioned, I bought under 2p, am in no hurry to sell and fully expect this to go over 10p and probably into the low teens over the coming few months.
There’s so much more that could be said but I’ve wasted enough time on this already. There is no ill will on my part towards you and given your explanations I accept that you are not a ‘deramper’.
Happy hunting.
First of all, to say what you are in terms of your employment status when this is very relevant to what is under discussion is not an ‘ad hominem’. You are by your own description an ‘at the rock face’ mining manager. Try stepping back a little from that rock face so (to mix my metaphors) you can see the wood for the trees.
You say that you have been making this analysis for the past 3 years and therein, I suspect, lies the reason for what I see is short sightedness with regard to this stock – you are posting on a public forum after all. You are looking at things as they were back then and back then I would not have been so sceptical of your analysis.
However, so much has changed since in the last three years.
AYM’s principal assets are Copper and Iron Ore and if you look at what is happening with regard to the prices of those metals, what is coming and the resulting projected demand, you would realise that what is in the ground is going to be soon of significantly greater value than what it is today. Prices are already significantly higher than they were just 6 months ago– and this increasing value will be happening throughout 2021 and beyond.
You will probably be aware of what I’m referring to as I mention them in my recent posts but here’s a quick summary: EVs in and of themselves and the huge knock on effect this will have of needing to upgrade much of the electricity grids of pretty much all the leading developed nations and of course the ever growing market distorting needs of China (India is slowly coming up as well). This one factor (EVs and the knock on) alone will generate unprecedented levels of copper demand. Just look at the market reaction to Castillo Copper’s announcement of just a few days ago – everyone knows where the price of copper is headed. On top of this you have the IoT and robotics revolution which is also going to push up the demand for copper massively.
Then we have the huge investments that will have to be made infrastructure projects across the globe due to the need to get Covid damaged economies back on track – classic Keynesian economics and, again, these things must happen.
AYM just happens to have all the right ingredients doesn’t it? Of course, with the level of reserves at Parys, Labrador and Sweden it’s not going to turn the metals world upside down but it is going to have a very positive effect on AYM’s share price given where they are today imo - how can it not?
You do understand that serious investment advisers working in this mining sector do factor in the likely future secanarios and prices that those scenarios will produce I assume? Your investment / technical analysis parameters in a working mine are given to you by your senior line managers and have to operate in the ‘now’ which is why I said ‘step back from the rock face’.
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@SouthWesterner: So if all you have is 10 years of operational mining experience in a fairly large outfit you are hardly senior and will not have been involved in making any significant or any financial investment decisions at all - in reality these things tend to be a little different to having read a management textbook.
Your negativity is profound and given that you say that you have sold all/most of your shares your motives are, at the present time and irrespective of what your explanation says, suspect to say the least.
I don't think anyone with a brain who has read the PEA or listened to the BH video is thinking that mining at Parys will start in the very short term.
Most importantly, the relevant commodities in view here are going up in price significantly (which will have a very positive affect on the IRR as the rises continue and continue they most surely will) and this fact alone coupled to the need of all the developed nations and consequently large mining entities to secure reserves of these commodities will constrain action that will be positive for AYM. In other words the necessary investment monies will most certainly come. What were the pertinent investment parameters of only a short while ago have been significantly revised - if you think otherwise it's because you are not in any sufficiently senior role to know what is being discussed at board level in these strange days.
Time will tell but now that I know what your experience level actually is, I realise that in terms of running a business and investing in business projects, it seems you have no experience at all.
Can i say categorically that you are wrong? No, no one could but I can say that all the pointers I and other considered posters see are pointing strongly in the opposite direction to what you go to great lengths to espouse here about AYM. Whether or not you are sincere I cannot tell but if you are then, given that you say that you have sold almost all your AYM shares, you are a most odd individual to spend your time running a very negative campaign against AYM on this Board as you patently do.
Very chunky indeed - can't believe these buys and BH's video will be missed by those serious watching investors (there will be quite a few) not merely diving in and out on packet of crisps money. So we may see some significant gains into the blue as this week progresses.
I don't think anything in the small caps can be called a 'dead cert' and certainly not in this sector and in this economic climate but I do think that the negativity shown by some of the posters is surprising given the picture in the round - i.e. the booming relevant commodities in view here and the (to my eyes) very positive PEA coupled to the ownership and options pertaining to Labrador and Sweden and what seems to be going on there.
There is undoubtedly a lot of churn going on but the fundamentals seem very good to me and whilst some are no doubt venting their negativity and pessimism on here (for whatever psychological need they have) there is definitely also a not insignificant amount of 'ramping / deramping' going on as well imo. There are material posts elsewhere that bear a significant similarity to some of the posts here - not surprising in itself of course (cut and pastes can be made by anyone) but it's interesting to watch these things (from a professional interest if nothing else).
I also think it to be a huge mistake to extrapolate from the historic SP something into the present because so much has changed in the World (not just the PEA, Gainsburg, Labrador) that makes historic prices pretty irrelevant imo.
At the end of the day only time will tell who is right and as you will no doubt be aware, in these realms small changes can alter sentiment dramatically (I would call an SP of 15p pretty dramatic).
You can be absolutely sure that Anglesey Mining PLC is on the radar of many mining outfits medium to large if only as a purchase prospect for reserve purposes.
I don't see this option discussed that much (though some have mentioned it) but given the projected costs of Copper, Iron, Zinc going forward due to EVs, IoT, robotics etc for copper and infrastructure projects to boost economic recoveries for iron ore and given that resources in these commodities are finite and known, the attractiveness of AYM as a reserve resource is already attractive and as the PEA filters upwards in these medium to large entities they will soon (if they aren't already) be sniffing around. I expect the SP to rise into the low (12p) to mid (15p) teens over the coming months.
It wouldn't surprise me at all to learn that BH and the BOD are already in discussion with some medium to large mining entreprise investors/outfits. These discussion will be subject to NDA/Confidentiality Agreement for now of course but if they progress beyond exploratory talks then details will leak - they very often do.
i really can't begin to understand the negativity of some of the posters (though there is an obvious explanation I suppose) and whilst the silly mega-bagger nonsense it to be deprecated an SP in the low to mid teens in the coming months is wholly realistic imo.
I thought it obvious so as not to need saying but I should know better than to assume that everyone gets the obvious.
The reason for massive infrastructure projects by the 'developed nations' (I especially count China in that term) is due to the Covid crises and the damage to economies this has and will for some time continue to cause. Economies will need huge government spend to get economies going again and the classic way this is done is by way of large infrastructure projects - Keynesian economics on steroids in all probability (with all the risks that brings).
I thought it obvious so as not to need saying but I should know better than to assume that everyone gets the obvious.
The reason for massive infrastructure projects by the 'developed nations' (I especially count China in that term) is due to the Covid crises and the damage to economies this has and will for some time continue to cause. Economies will need huge government spend to get economies going again and the classic way this is done is by way of large infrastructure projects - Keynesian economics on steroids in all probability (with all the risks that brings).