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My personal take; not looking to convince anyone so feel free to ignore or whatever you want
I'm operating from a belief that fundamentally what is contained in this release is truthful. Laugh if you want, call me naive but that's where I'm coming from
I believe that considering the pictures I have of the original site and the new site, it's possible indeed that DFS is further delayed (which for sure is a bummer) but that permitting and production are brought forward
This is imo bad news for traders and those looking for an early exit but for those in the same boat as me, looking to extract maximum value and aren't in a rush, this is very good news
I have no idea whether this pushes back offtake and FID but I'd assume so. Once again bad if you want to make less profit from this investment but to make it fast, but irrelevant if you want to make maximum profit and can wait a couple of years
I personally still believe this doesn't increase the chance of dilution in the form of a cap raise before DFS
Truthfully I'm a little annoyed that DFS will take longer - and even on this note I'm inclined to agree with others that this will probably take quite a long time, like 6 to 12 months, but until we learn more I hold out some hope that the DFS tinkering might be relatively minor and the delay might be less but I'm not overly hopeful of that - but my overall position is that I'm happy to read this announcement because I'm of the belief that I'll make more money and that my exit point will come sooner
Https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/emh/6f7de9e6-563.pdf
(Successful production of lithium hydroxide)
Purely speculation on my part but I can't help but wonder whether this ties in with the potentially improved outlook to be flagged later this month, especially with our collective speculation about possible offtake at some time around DFS release, whether that is really soon or in a while. There was a hierarchy of preference when it comes to offtakers based on a few factors that were discussed after AGM and the variable of hydroxide/carbonate was certainly a factor that, once the flexibility to produce both was unlocked, was going to potentially open more doors for us. I personally find this announcement quite exciting - meaningless on its own of course, but with potentially very exciting implications for offtake and I am also feeling bullish based on the timing of this announcement
Glad I topped up last week!
Just for a total change of pace, most probably wouldn't know the history of EMH but it emerged from a company that folded called EQH which, some ten years ago purchased Cinovec rights as a tin play. The lithium story ostensibly only came about serendipitously. See below an article from December 2013. And prior to this, EQH was looking to develop a Congo iron ore project as its focus
Anyway have a read if you're interested
tukebay
3,899 Posts.
1273
23/12/13 07:16 Post #: 12733181
From Pure Speculation in The Australian:
Mining looks bleak as new listings disappear
But there's always the next Great Idea. Investors certainly thought they'd heard one on Wednesday, pushing up by 46.6 per cent the shares of Equamineral Holdings (EQH), which can be contacted through phone numbers in Brazzaville (Republic of Congo) or London, or a PO box in the British Virgin Islands.
The company was plodding along with iron ore in Congo-Brazzaville but last week unveiled its acquisition of "one of the largest undeveloped hard rock tin projects in the world".
Now, as regular readers will know, Pure Speculation has never heard a tin story it didn't like.
The EQH project does have one advantage: it is in the Czech Republic. It is this writer's view that, given the importance being placed by the European Commission on critical metals security, this is one of the places to be producing. The project also contains tungsten and lithium, both dear to Brussels' heart (plus rubidium, scandium, niobium and tantalum: be still our beating hearts).
The Cinovec project has 103,970 tonnes of contained tin, a resource estimate based on exploration in the 1970s and 80s when what was then Czechoslovakia was behind the Iron Curtain.
The company says 400,000 tonnes of ore have been mined during trials, which increases confidence, and it sees Cinovec coming on stream just as the world's biggest tin mine, San Rafael in Peru, faces resource exhaustion in 2017. That assumes all goes to plan, of course; not always a wise assumption in the junior sector
I understand the criticism and the negativity completely. All that notwithstanding I'm with wiseinvestor. I'm waiting just a little bit longer in anticipation of a little more drop in SP and then I hope to pick up a couple of hundred thousand more at what I feel is a great price. I'm expecting to wait for weeks to months before there's a strong price recovery. I also understand and don't disagree with the talk of buyout but we'd be looking to tick more boxes before engaging in any meaningful discussions along those lines in order to extract more value, especially if you were to believe as I do, that it's not going to be years before we see DFS, FID, finance, offtake and permits. If most of those were locked in I'd be happy to exit at a fair price commensurate with our progress. Some will disagree that any of those boxes will be ticked any time in the next few months and we can just agree to disagree. Of course I'd rather reach production though but either outcome would be acceptable. In the meantime I'll keep building my position like wiseinvestor
Duly noted
What if I'm comfortable with the risk profile, am not in a hurry to cash out and would rather lock in a great price now than risk an increase and miss out for the sake of a shot at an even lower price?
Closing in on 1.5 million shares after this top up, excited to see what sort of exit price I can get
Roger that Skell
Last quarter I was given an explanation that, as I said earlier makes me believe there was no lying or BS or anything nefarious at all. He was in a way let down and the details surrounding that rang true and reasonable to me and I'd have played it exactly as he did. I know you'll be shaking your head and muttering profanities to yourself and that's fine mate; let's just leave it at you not believing me and me not being worried that you don't.
As for this quarter, I haven't had a conversation specifically about the date of DFS dropping and I can't shed much light on that exact question whereas I had a bit more context last quarter. And not that this is the point but again I have to reiterate that we didn't publish three months ago considering the market conditions then and now
Carry on Skell, I guess there's the need for both of us on this forum to provide opposing views. I do have to say I feel like your views are formed and expressed from inferring the future with such a high degree of certainty from past performance and not much else. My commentary is far less sweeping I feel; I comment on how I interpret the goings on and the future but with a far lower level of self assuredness despite having some extra information through conversations with Keith. I just put out there what I'm doing and share a bit of what I can from what I've heard but I have no need to convince anyone of anything. To be honest I'm happy if people run for the hills because I'm about to top up shortly and the cheaper the better.
None of that's really meant to be a diss. I'm just cruising along happily doing my thing and being patient. I rate KCs past performance differently to most here but I can see where others get their frustrations from and I wouldn't criticise anyone who is frustrated or even upset with him. That's just not me - maybe I'm naive or stupid but I see the challenges he's faced out of his control as real, that he's been let down by providers and other stakeholders than he's deliberately lied, and he may or may not have made the right moves regarding updates but I wouldn't really comment personally because, the thing three months ago has shown me that at least on that occasion, sometimes there are reasons for radio silence that make sense for shareholders. Negative comments about his past performance are completely understandable to me but I can't get on board with calling him a crook or saying everything about the project is cooked despite strong fundamentals.
Just my two cents
I don't know about the rest of the missed timelines, but at least for missing the end of 2023, I was given a very reasonable explanation that was 100% in the shareholders' interest and would've potentially caused problems had it have been communicated publicly. Not at all concerned when (not if) Skelly calls bullsh*t but for anyone else who has an open mind this might be of interest to hear. Looking forward to reading Skelly slaying me for both my naivety and my dishonesty haha
Again I've got no agenda and not interested in changing anyone's mind, just sharing my interpretation and summation of private conversations I've had for anyone that wants to read it, to add to their considerations in assessing their investment
I agree with Greenmachine by and large. I think as investors we show a higher level of critical thought and intelligence when we acknowledge the possibility that there are details we don't know about that may be driving moves made by KC and others. It's fine to guess but no one knows for sure; even after multiple face to face and phone conversations, I feel informed but still have heaps I don't know for certain. Heaps and heaps.
And on another point, as I've said before KC's primary goal is to bring the project to production. He is therefore most beholden to shareholders but in particular, shareholders looking to extract value post production or at least much closer to that stage. He'd love to be popular among all holders including those that would like a constant frequent supply of favourable exit point by providing linear share price growth, but he is MOST interested in overcoming hurdles to hitting the goal line, and if that is at the cost of the share price on a daily basis through some decisions he has to make including around communications, then I guess that's what will happen. It's fine if anyone wants to buy at some give point and be able to sell for a tidy profit on every single trading day post purchase, but it ain't going to happen that way. He knows the punters are frustrated and he's not delighted or even ambivalent about it. Hes just trying to get the project done. Do I agree with everything he's done along the way? To be honest, I just don't know that there's not fair reasons for his radio silence at times - maybe there's not - but again, I just don't know. Everything I've heard and read from him seems reasonable to me. He's got plenty of skin in the game as well. I'm not looking to trade our before the price looks terrific and I'm in no rush. Others are in a different situation and are completely entitled to their views, but I just don't agree with the fanatical negative sentiment but that's just me. Let's just wait and see. I'll be looking to top up significantly in the near future personally, and it feels to me like taking candy from a kid at these prices
Hey Mick, I'm family with the Sibanye transaction you're referring to and on paper that's the sort of multiple range I think ought to be taking place for us as well but putting on my realistic har I could certainly imagine a scenario where we don't quite make those numbers. I hope I'm wrong, but even shy of that my holding north of a million shares here still doesn't make me too sad
My preferred outcome though, of course, is that we make it to production. In my estimation even in phase one we're selling 40ktpa at $25000 a tonne costing us say $5000 in OP. Super rough figures, but that's 800 mill in profit half of which is ours. 49% is ours but I'm happy to bring that down from 400 to 300 mill to allow for extra costs and error. I'm hoping and expecting there to be around 250 million shares floating about at that stage so that's still $1.20 divi per share after repayments. Pick a PE ratio you like and you have a number that might be somewhere near my guess
Again, I'm not trying to convince anyone. Please do as you please guys @Skelly @sairbrecht et al. I haven't been on a ride like this before but it just makes too much sense to me. I don't want to be kicking myself later when I'm telling myself I should've believed my own analysis
Hi Skelly, hey what made you think I'm grateful for the drop in price?
Mate I'm not grateful for it but then I'm not too interested in doing anything but extracting maximum value so I'm here for a couple more years yet to see us get to production hopefully. If we get bought out before then, that's my worst case scenario I'm envisaging. Who knows, I might be wrong but I feel like I'm taking a test back at school but someone's given me the answers ahead of time so I want to increase my holding.
It's not a fact. I have no guarantees. And sure, if you gave me the choice I'd prefer the share price to be ten times what it is today but it's not too relevant considering my strategy. I'm not in a big hurry at all; it's just that my personal reading of the situation is very bullish on the medium to long term because I feel the risks have all but been mitigated and the upside is enormous. The only thing I can't be confident about is the exact timeline of each box betting ticked but that's fine for my person situation.
I feel like it's a bit like, if you traveled back in time ten plus years and hadn't really followed bitcoin but vaguely knew it'd be worth something like what it is today, you'd be piling everything you could into it and just happily waiting. It's not the same but that's sort of how I feel.
You guys decide for yourselves though, I have no need to argue with anyone because all of this is just my reading of the situation, none of it is certain besides the fact that I've had these communications with KC plenty of times, and I for one am comfortable with my holding and want to increase it
Hey why don't you give him a call and have a chat yourself?
He shared plenty of helpful insights with me that he was able to, about DFS as well as plenty of other stuff and it was all very reasonable to me. He's firmly focused on bringing the project to production above all, and since raising cash isn't on the cards or necessary any time soon (other equity raises have been strategic) the short term share price fluctuations play second fiddle to progress, albeit frustrating for shareholders including KC. I think we can expect some sort of update before too much longer, but there's only so much Keith can share.
Honestly, just pick up the phone, it's not that hard
With the recent recovery in Lithium pricing, I'm actually more and more grateful that the DFS wasn't published in December. The economics of the project would've read far worse than it will when we see it, and for me it will have been worth the wait.
Spoke to KC for half an hour on the phone today.
I'll be topping up shortly.