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Updated value gap chart https://uk.tradingview.com/x/Dx1TAdz7/
+1 RE commentators who’ve dug around in the company’s balance sheet and shared their findings. Good reason I bought enq instead of pmo or tlw. Huge value gap and lots of leverage with limited downside to oil price and operational risk. When AB bought a huge chunk out of his family money it basically confirmed my thesis. He got a better price than me though!
Me too.
Sorry aquae, I must have missed the massive buying this morning.
Beware dead cat bounces!
Not deramping - realistic. Check ssx4me post. Check the e/v with debt (If the debt funding comes) and full dilution.
There will definitely be more shorting as arbitrage to the new bonds but as warren buffet says - ‘I welcome shorting, at some point they have to buy stock’
Agree mineisthemine. Have to be realistic about ROI. A fair wind behind the soft commodity price and the following potash spike will do wonders however and it is due, so there is still hope for a good return - assuming our prices are not locked in.
Not only at the huge level of dilution but also that there wasn’t a RI component for existing loyal shareholders to cover off dilution - having said that I am expecting to be able to buy on the market at less than 15p, but given how much my expected return has such a massive hole in it now, I’m not sure it’s worth it unless I can get them for around 10p. Better ROI to be had elsewhere now.
Having said that canny buyers will be waiting for the pullback to start loading up if any are waiting in the sidelines. PM action will tell the story.
Looks like many have used this morning as an exit/derisk opportunity. Lots of churn over 7. Prob going to be a resistance point until significant news changes the sentiment
£3.6m in the bank too. Easily enough for another pod if we need one. Equally enough to run the company for more than a year.
Is it something to do with how the wells are drilled?
I’m neither optimistic or pessimistic - I can only make judgements based on the data I manage to gather and interpret it as best I can. There is a clear sentiment valuation gap between Oilers and the price of oil which I suspect is fundamentally related to the EV demand destruction and shale super-growth narrative so I see opportunity. £1 would depend on $100 Brent & all that indifference and negative sentiment to turn bullish and push the pendulum the opposite way to way over-valued relative to POO as it did in early 2017. I make no predictions of SP in any timeframe. As I mentioned my trade was based on the supply story in Nov 18. I’m flexible with that Q2 deadline though, if I see catalysts that will show a continuation of a bullish market, I’ll ride it. Right now I have an upper range target of 44p based on $73 Brent and the cashflow figures that other better informed and educated posters have kindly shared. The market isn’t usually obliging enough to agree with my valuations though!
Pelle, I assumed it was a witch hunt but it looks like deliberate sabotage was at play according to that article. I’ve done a quick bit of maths and my initial $1.8bn figure was based on 16 days outage. If flow is restored by 29th the lost revenue will be more like $500m but that still represents around $20m of lost wealth to Putin. It depends who you talk but from what I can tell Putin personally takes around 4% of gross revenue from Russian oil and gas sales. I’ve heard numbers between 0.5 and 8% though. The latter seems ridiculously high. Whatever the true figure there is good reason to believe he has a net worth of $200-250bn
Suggests he will launch a criminal investigation into contamination of crude exports https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-russia-oil-belarus-putin/putin-flags-wider-investigation-into-contaminated-russian-oil-idUKKCN1S307K Given that around $1.8bn of revenue will be lost, I would not like to be the fall guy on this.