Cannot see 500p next week as it has already come off around a pound from it's most recent high. Previously when the vix index is high plus generates good profits so I see no reason why this should change. Regarding the dividend for the first half it is unlikely to be large given the poor Q1 and improved Q2 yet it will be mush lower than last year.
I’ve been invested here for years and has been one of my best. Last March I re invested all of my special dividend after the consolidation. Since then the shares have risen 45%. Surely at some point it will stabilise or the premium will reduce from it’s current highs.
I wonder if some news has leaked recently that has caused the sudden weakness in share price. I remember IGG suddenly tanked one day before a recent update so somebody knew something. I wrote a long post the other day about short sellers on the stopped out thread but it has been deleted, I can't see why as it didn't contain anything untoward.
I find it strange that they want to issue 5% more shares for cash and then buy back 10% of the shares in circulation, I'm obviously missing something so if anyone can explain the point of this please do. All AGM resolutions have duly passed according to the RNS.
Regarding buybacks I have updated my figures which have been running since last November to buy a piddling $10M worth of shares.
Purchase To date volume 613,418 Total expenditure £6.408 Avg price per share £10.36
Based on 1.3 $/£ we are 80% complete on the current buyback, which has really been slow.
Yes the numbers look reasonably solid but we cannot ignore the fact that tobacco volumes are only going one way. Whether next gen products will plug the gap in regards to lost profitability remains to be seen. What happens if governments start banning those? Sentiment against tobacco started around two years ago and has not stopped yet it seems if anything to be accelerating given the 20% percent decline in SP in a month as you say with no real company specific news. That's why I don't like it right now.
In regards to dividend return it'a a case of how long is a piece of string until we know how it has performed in this last quarter. First quarter was well below expectations, but recent volatility may be on our side.
I first bought in 2011 for £20. Unfortunately I added on the way up and didn't sell any at £40 (big mistake) my current average is a shade under £29 and like yourself -22% on capital. Of course over the years dividends will have offset some of this but how long can they keep on pulling rabbits out of the hat.
I just checked on the price here after a few days away and shocked to see it below £22. The half year report was obviously not well received with such a decline in tobacco volumes. I'm torn whether to just cut my losses here now and accept it was a bad investment.