RE: Looking positive for a big uplift and back to 2-3p now.16 Jun 2024 18:57
"Then you see how he1 has completely lost control of costs." - He1 has not completely lost control of costs, they are a junior explorer, on the verge of extracting a very difficult and precious commodity which is in great demand, but they have some 10 mill in the coffers, and will no doubt attract JV interest if the figures have improved from deeper drilling. Helium is in such demand that it's basically a name your price commodity when it comes to selling it. He1 could well be on the verge of making a fortune in the not too distant future.
"Their AISC per mmcf of helium is going to be so high that any volumetric benefits will be vapourised! Just like existing holders." - Not true, if they take a JV, it's likely the JV partner will consume all related costs in to production and beyond. A JV partner will know the exact worth of this rare and sought after commodity and so I'm expecting great interest once the next set of figures are released.
"Once they complete that extra 150meters and an ewt they will need more money for production!" - not if a JV partner comes along, plus whoever wrote this garbage forgot to mention that they were oversubscribed for the recent placing!
"If both make £10m to return to shareholders. He1 have 3.7bn shares now going to over 5bn shares and will rise again and hex have 122m shares but will need only £12.5m (mid point) to go to production. Both assuming successful appraisal wells." - the higher number of shares in HE1 gives a better prospect of liquidity/volatility in the market place, the MMs have more shares to trade with, and thus make far more money, they often don't have much interest in the tiddlers and don't actively promote the market for them, which risks a company going bust if there is no appetite for the shares. I'd take HE1 any day over HEX. Plus, MMs need to match buys with sells, with a small number of shares, it's increasingly difficult to do that, and they will stop you out of the market place very easily if they are faced with too many sells. Volume is key.
"Even a well 25x more productive will succumb to he1 overheads!" - HE1 is not yet in production so that's a non sensical statement all round. Likelihood is though that HE1 will easily find a JV partner to help carry the essential costs to take it to production.
"Hex could JV and even raise a smaller amount at a higher sp. But fk it let’s say they go for 100%! That is only another 122m shares!" - again, that's exactly the problem, the small amount of shares is not attractive to MMs, and is unlikely to encourage a higher demand for the same. HE1 is far more likely to see volatility in the trading market and that volatility is key for further raises, should they be necessary at higher prices, and with more volatility in trading and a higher chance of a decent uplift in sp. Investors are not going to put their hands in their pockets for a company trading with a small number of shares.
my views.