election6 Sep 2018 01:14
For the fourth Yougov measurement in a row, the Swedish Democrats are the biggest party, with 24.8 percent of the votes. The party is followed by the Social Democrats as the second largest party by 23.8 percent and the Moderates as the third largest party by 16.5 percent.
So in advance, one can still see that we would get two weakened former big parties, M and S, who have a lot of internal disappointment to handle.
Sören Holmberg, Professor Emeritus in Political Science at the University of Gothenburg, thinks that the big difference in support of the Swedish Democrats in various opinion polls is interesting for the election on Sunday.
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At the highest, the Swedish Democrats are currently in Yougov's measurements, along with Sentio's latest measurement, where the party received 24.0 percent. In several other opinion polls, the party is instead around twenty-one percent. In the last poll of Ipso, the party received 16.3 percent support. However, before the 2014 elections, many underestimated SD support, says Sören Holmberg.
"It seems unnecessary to speculate, but there are big differences. There is a great deal of uncertainty in the measuring industry about how it is possible, he says.
Both the Social Democrats and the Moderates have lost support since the 2014 elections, when the Social Democrats received 31.0 percent of the votes and the Moderates 23.3 percent.
" In advance, one can still see that we would get two weakened former big parties, M and S, who have a lot of internal disappointment to handle, which makes it difficult to see from the outside how they will act. It can be fooled to each other, but it may also be that they try to increase the distance to each other, "commented Jonas Hinnfors, professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg.
A party that is reduced in support of this measurement is the Environmental Party which falls below the four percent barrier. The party gained 5.1 percent in the August survey and received only 3.6 percent in this measurement, a decrease that is statistically guaranteed.
The Christian Democrats have grown in several opinion polls recently. The party receives 4.8 percent support and therefore endures for the first time since December 2016 above the four percent barrier in a Yougov measurement.
The three red-green parties are slightly larger than the Alliance, bringing together 36.8 percent compared with 33 percent support for the Alliance. In this summary, however, it should be borne in mind that the Environmental Party does not reach up to four percent barriers.
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