Member Info for tinlid

The price at the closing auction was 8.926. By my calculation that should give an opening ex rights price tomorrow of �6.53.

I think so. But theoretically there is no advantage. What you gain on the shares bought for 3.15 you will lose on the share price adjustment tomorrow. Thats how I see it.

barneydog3967 - the shares dont go ex-rights until tomorrow so if you sell the shares today you wont get the rights entitlement. The record date does not really matter. Thats how I see it.

Sorry - 2 days early!

The price at the closing auction was 9.316. By my calculation that should give an opening ex rights price tomorrow of �6.76. The drop today was not unexpected in my opinion. If you bought today you would keep the rights and have to pay more to exercise them. Why would you do that? Better to buy tomorrow!

9th April.

Peltata - Personally I cant see a big rise in the II's positions as they already own over 80% of the shares. I also don't think that the II's are looking to take over the company - I think they are invested because of the long term potential. Things should be a lot clearer after 22 March when the shares go ex-rights. After that date shares can be bought for the lower price but without the rights; meaning that investors after that date wont have to stump up any more money. At the moment I thing investors are selling in order to raise money to take part in the RI so that after the RI their monetary exposure remains the same. Purely my own opinion.

Theoretical post rights issue price (based on current share price) = 9.34 x current shares in issue (148,233,503) = 1,384,500,918 (current market cap). New shares = 3.15 x 104,998,731 = 330,746,003. New market cap after new shares issued = 1,715,246,921 (1,384,500,918 + 330,746,003). New market cap (1,715,246,921) divided by total shares in issue after Rights Issue (253,232,234) = �6.77

Peltata - By my calculations the current share price of �9.34 equates to a theoretical post Rights price of �6.77 so if Fastfood's prediction of �8 by May is anywhere near correct I will be happy.

Fastfood - is your forecast based on current shares in issue or after new shares are on market?

For those who are interested - at it's height PFG touched �32 per share. After the Rights Issue that would equate to �20.04 per share. At the current share price (�9.80) the price after the Rights Issue should adjust to �7.04 per share. So still a lot of potential upside in the long term (all things being equal).

If the big boys are closing their short positions then it doesn�t bode well for the PI�s holding short positions. Just my view.

The short interest tracker website shows short positions have decreased from 14.4% on 26 Feb - down to 10.56% on 28 Feb. PFG now out of top 5 shares shorted. Another thing to celebrate! More indication that sentiment has changed and the bulls are winning the battle against the bears. Long may it continue!

Uphigher - No. The wind has changed.The uncertaities have gone. The business is recovering. If you want to subscribe to the cheap shares in the Rights issue you have to buy some shares. The share price is only a little up on the share price in December (9.40ish?). Plenty more upside in my opinion. The shorters are likely to move on if there is little down side on the horizon. To move on they have to buy back the shares they borrowed, and sold, to give back to the institutions. The bigger the demand to buy the shares, the higher the share price. Purely my personal opinion, I may, of course, be wrong. (The short tracker website should provide an indication)

Well done The Traveller - happy for you as well! It can be stressfull watching your investment wither on the vine as the share price drops as this one has. I think I'll wait a bit longer - should be more up-side hopefully(!)

Are rights issues ever done in instalments? That could provide an explanation.

WW - thanks for the explanation - I think I understand. But as Myfairlady alludes to; to raise 500,000,000 from existing shares in issue would mean raising �3.37 from each share and that would be on a 1 for 1 basis. Following the issue there would be 100% more shares in isssue so the current price as I type (6.06) would be halved to �3.03 i.e. 34p below the rights issue price. How can that succeed? Unless it is hoped that the increased funding would significantly boost the share price pre-issue?

500,000,000 wanted, 148,233,503 shares = �3.37per share on a 1:1 basis. Or, �6.74 on a 1:2 basis. Is this too simplistic / reasonable?

Chartist 2: Please explain why a �500 million rights issue would make Woodford stop supporting the share price? Given that the market cap is approximately �1 billion how are they going to raise �1/2 billion through a rights issue? Excuse me if I'm wrong but doesn't that mean e.g. a 1 for 1 issue at half the current price or a 1 for 2 at the current price?

"WW nicely explained" - What exactly has he explained??? The 80% large holders are "stuck" with their shares and "look to make the best of a bad situation". What a load of utter rubbish. Classic shorters scaremongering tactics, nothing else.